'21 Recruiting Forum: Official Georgia Pregame/Game Thread

#177
#177
From the mutts

GCoffey

Thank you guys for your patience with me on getting this one up. Let’s get into it…,
Tennessee Offense
The Volunteers need to run to set up pass. Overall the passing attack is pretty good. 9.1 YPA 22 TDs and only 2 picks. They have a 64% completion percentage, but are 11th in SEC in Passing Success Rate. They Rank 4th in Air Yards per Attempt, but have taken 33 sacks. Is this game just as simple as defending the run and tackling the WR’s? Quite possibly…
The Vols are a true Spread Offense. They will make you defend all 53 yards of the field horizontally and there’s a lot of one-on-one battles that you have to win against the Vols. The biggest thing of all is that you must tackle. When you don’t they can take a screen pass 75 yards off of one bad angle by the defense.
They don’t always block them well though. In fact, they often don‘t. I expect UGA to be able to whip UT’s blocks on the outside. Kentucky started keying on the screens and something was tipping them to when they were coming. With vets like Smith, Cine, Dean and Kendrick on this defense I think they will pick up on it too. They might even be able to jump one of UT’s WR screens and create a fumble or come close to a pick at some point.
It isn’t that simple though. The problem about playing them too tight versus screens is that they can get behind you and if that happens on the far boundary when they’re on the hashes then it‘s probably 6 for the Vols.
Hooker is an opportunistic QB, and he takes care of the ball. His 21 TD’s/2 INT’s are impressive.
One interesting thing is how simple the route tree is for this offense. Heupel isn’t asking these guys to do anything super complex or precise. Velvus Jones is the only WR who is actually running multiple concepts for yardage with any sort of consistency. I think UGA will know this and I think they can take advantage of it.Heupel has the occasional trick in his bag, but you usually see them off of a possession change. Against UK they lined up like they normally do for their wide bubble screens, but they ran a Seattle concept off of a fake bubble and UK left two guys running wide open 30 yards downfield. The formation/scheme was beautiful, and Heupel likes to flood one side of the field with WR’s.
Above all… YOU HAVE GOT TO HAVE GOOD BOUNDARY CORNERS AGAINST THIS DEFENSE OR YOU’RE GOING TO GIVE UP SOME EXPLOSIVES. You also have to tackle. A lot of this offense is based off of quick game and slants.
I know that everyone is down on PFF right now, but they do provide some really nice comparative metrics over the course of a large sample size. The Vols are 12th in the SEC in Pass Blocking with a PFF Grade of 49.1. Not good news when facing UGA.
UT doesn’t have a great OL. They allow a lot of pressures off of the left side and that often starts with LT Darnell Wright. Hendon Hooker can do some nice things with his legs, and off of pressure is usually when that happens. Sometimes their bad pass protection gives him a chance to run upfield into open space. He will lower his shoulder, and he runs often. Hooker has had over 20 carries a couple times this year and his legs are a necessity for UT to produce a good rushing attack, but I don’t think he can survive the punishment of this UGA defense if Heupel runs him into the teeth of this front seven.
Nobody has carried against UGA more than 16 times this year, and that was Kevin Harris from USC in garbage time. Anthony Richardson is built for physical runs and 12 carries was all it took to knock him out of the game. That’s something to watch.
UT’s conventional run game shouldn’t scare UGA fans, but it is worth mentioning that the explosive run play they had versus UK came when Kentucky’s EDGE got out of position. That’s the spot Anderson used to play, and Georgia will need to be sure they stay disciplined on the edges.
The reality is this- Tennessee needs busted plays by the defense to create explosives down the field. If you don’t let the tempo get you out of position the offense is pretty vanilla and there’s not a ton of variation. Three busted coverages by Bama’s secondary resulted in 3 touchdowns for Tennessee. They will cash in their opportunities when given them. The narrative around this game is focused on the lethal UT passing attack, but if you get them into obvious passing situations on 3rd down you’re likely to get them off the field. You have to win on early downs and not give up cheap yards.Tennessee Defense
First off, it’s worth mentioning that Georgia’s offense continues to improve week by week. These numbers below are in league play early, and they are hovering around 2019 LSU & 2020 Bama range. UGA isn’t what those teams were, but they are situationally superb and that’s how you win games and blowout opponents.We talked about how you have to tackle against UT’s O, but UT’s D will give up some missed tackles. Early in the UK game you see starting Safety Jalen McCollough #22… He has a free run at Rodriguez and comes in with poor form and misses the tackle. MCCOLLUGH HAS A MISSED TACKLE PERCENTAGE OF 30.4%. That’s not good. UGA can exploit that matchup.
Tennessee tried to do to Kentucky what most teams have tried to do to Georgia lately… Load the box and shut down the run. The Vols brought 6 or more rushers frequently early in the game. Just because UT’s linebackers fit the run right doesn’t mean it’s a stuff. UT LB Aaron Beasley whiffs on RB’s in the hole often. He has a missed tackle percentage of 21.3%. You can bully Tennessee with a physical run game if you give your backs enough room to get downhill. Granted, UK’s offensive line might be the best in the SEC, and UGA hasn’t looked great against loaded boxes lately. UK was able to bust some big runs against 7 man fronts versus the Vols. I don’t think UGA can do that, but I think they can come out and get push up front against UT’s front four.
Opportunities will arise in the run game for Georgia. The Vols don’t fill gaps very well and they don’t flow super well to the ball.
The Vols play a lot of soft zone coverages in obvious passing downs. The MO seems to be more about not giving up explosive plays than not giving up yardage. They often drop really deep on their zones on the boundaries. They will often give you an easy 8-10 yards on the sideline as they back up at the snap. They play soft defense because they’re not particularly great in coverage. It you give the QB time to throw you can pick them apart. Those heavy cushion zones will also give away some easy reads to run the quick game into. WR’s and TE’s simply need to find the hole and sit down.
They will give up some plays over the top if you get them in man coverage, but it will be interesting to see how the Vols try to play Georgia’s offense. The middle of the field comes open on this defense sometimes on obvious passing downs. I think we might see a Stetson QB draw for a big gain on Saturday.
If you can get a RB or TE matched up on LB Aaron Beasley you’re going to get a nice play out of it. Kentucky got him for a TD and then the next drive they tried to go back at Beasley. Yhey had Rodriguez schemed open out of the backfield for a 30-40 yard reception, but Levis just missed the throw.
UT’s first two DB’s are Alontae Taylor and Warren Burrell. Taylor is a pretty solid corner, but Burrell gets lost a lot in zone and can be beaten in man coverage. There are matchups all over the field n Georgia’s favor against this secondary. As you can see, there are some things that UGA runs well already that Tennessee struggles to defend.Much has been made of Hooker, but Georgia doesn’t have some huge disadvantage at QB in this matchup like some would have you believe. Stetson has been the more accurate downfield passer…
Bennett’s Attempts
20+ YDS: 17.4% of attempts… 57.1% completion, 23.7 YPA, 6 TD/2 INT
10-19 YDS: 28.9% of attempts… 74.3% completion, 14.5 YPA, 4 TD/1 INT
0-9 YDS: 33.1% of attempts… 72.5% completion, 6.6 YPA, 2 TD/1 INT
Hooker’s Attempts
20+ YDS: 16% of attempts… 14/30, 46.7% completion, 20.1 YPA, 8TD/1 INT
10-19 YDSL 17.6% of att, 20/33 60.6% completion, 10.1 YPA, 5 TD/0 INT
0-9 YDSL 42.2% of att… 78.5% completion, 7.7 YPA, 5 TD/1 INT
Prediction
Georgia can get pressure off of LT Darnell Wright and RG Javontez Spraggins. Center Jerome Cavin hasn’t allowed a sack all year, but he has given up a good bit of pressures and I expect UGA to try and press him with their talented group of DT’S. UT has been called for a lot of penalties up front this year, and I think UGA’s presnap motion will catch them at some point on Saturday.
Georgia will get consistent pressure in the passing game, and nobody is running up the middle on this UGA defense. I do have concerns about UGA’s ability to set the left edge versus Cade Mays in the space where Adam Anderson has played most of the year. I see the Dawgs losing contain on Hooker or not setting an edge in the run game at a couple junctures, resulting in a chunk run off of a cutback or Hooker scrambling right and finding a pass play downfield from a UT receiver working back towards the ball.
If Beal struggles to set that edge on the first few drives it’ll be interesting to see how Lanning and Kirby handle it. Georgia has too many elite athletes to bang its head against the wall if something isn’t working from a personnel standpoint.
Tennessee has relied on coverage busts on the outside to produce points against the better teams they’ve faced this year. The Dawgs have been good on the boundaries with Kelee Ringo and Derion Kendrick giving up next to nothing week after week. I think that Georgia may give up a play, but I don’t think that Tennessee will be able to hit Kendrick or Ringo on double moves over and over.
Tennessee’s tempo is relied upon to create big plays, but save for the occasional curveball from Heupel they aren’t going to shock Georgia with anything from a scheme standpoint. The system is what it is, and this veteran UGA defense is good at recognizing tendencies. I think they will create some havoc against the WR screens UT runs, and we might see one of those long sideline throws picked by Georgia.
I’m fascinated to see what route Tennessee takes on defense. It’s not a very good unit and they’ve played things pretty softly all year. They have tried to bend but not break, and this may be a game for UGA that’s more like Arkansas was. That being said, the Vols brought heat early against Kentucky’s running game. This is really a question of whether or not UT wants to give up long drives or big plays. Either way, I think Georgia is moving the ball on this unit.
The UGA offensive line got embarrassed last week, and I think they will come out on Saturday with an aggressive mentality at the line of scrimmage.
Tennessee’s defense is a poor tackling unit. I think Georgia’s RB’s can do a ton of damage against this back end if UGA’s offensive line is able to create enough room for them to get to the 2nd level. If they can’t do it the conventional way, I expect Monken to uses these backs in the passing game with screens, angle routes, and checkdowns.
If and when Georgia can get a RB or TE matched up on LB Aaron Beasley they are going to feast. Beasley is poor in coverage, and Monken will be looking for ways to take advantage of him. Beasley is the worst, but this entire LB corps struggles in coverage. Look for Jackson, Burton, McConkey and Mitchell to take some chunks out of this defense. If UGA finds itself in man coverage then whoever gets matched up with Safety Jaylen McCullough and CB Warren Burrell will be where Bennett should be looking to go with the ball.Tennessee struggles to defend rub and switch variations and UGA has excelled with them. That’s a spot where the Dawgs should produce some big plays. Lookout for the Wheel+Post/Dig combo, it‘s a Monken favorite.
This UGA defense doesn’t make many mental mistakes, and I think it will be difficult for UT to just drive the ball on Georgia. They will deliver a couple shots, but this defense has been great once teams get into scoring range and I expect that to continue. I expect Heupel to roll the dice on some 4th downs as opposed to trying to kick FG’s. At the end of the day I see UT putting up 14-17 points.
On offense, I think Georgia will have a bounce back day on the ground and this will get ugly as this Vols defense starts to tire in the second half. They played 99 snaps a week ago in Lexington. Don’t be shocked if UGA comes out looking crisp for the first time in a month. They will want to take control of this game quickly and keep the crowd out of it.
Georgia 45 - Tennessee 17
Bonus: Keep an eye out for a blocked FG by UGA on Saturday if they get the chance. There’s some things in Tennessee’s FG unit I think Georgia can take advantage of, particularly if the Vols are toward the left hash.
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#179
#179
VolNRaleighNC said:
We ain’t scoring 20 on this D. If we do, it’s against their 4th string extremely late in the 2nd half after they’ve already waxed us.

50(ish) to 14(ish) Dawgs W
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20 isn't that crazy. At all. UK and Aub had 13 and we play at such a tempo that we'll get a couple more possessions than they did. But we could also give up more than they did.
 
#185
#185
Message board fun aside, I have zero expectations of us winning. In fact, I think it could get ugly for us.

Kind of hope we snag a commit this weekend though. Those things are rare ‘round these parts but with this being such a big recruiting weekend and with how rocking Neyland is going to be, we just might…
 
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#189
#189
HoleInTheRoof said:
Message board fun aside, I have zero expectations of us winning. In fact, I think it could get ugly for us.

Kind of hope we snag a commit this weekend though. Those things are rare ‘round these parts but with this being such a big recruiting weekend and with how rocking Neyland is going to be, we just might…
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I'm holding out some hope that this is the weekend that UGA choosees to have a pooper of a game. We should be able to determine if that's the case pretty early so, outside of that, yeah... I'm in the same place.
 
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#193
#193
jordan4vols said:
Stopped reading at “we need to run to set up the pass”. We don’t need either. The scheme will take what is given by the defense but it’s spread so wide it’s simply matchups. We didn’t run on Kentucky until they tried to stop us scoring so quickly throwing by pulling safeties out
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Yeah if anything I feel this is more of a pass to set up the run offense. Ultimately, Hype wants to run...a lot. Which is why we often start off with screens. Throw in some early deep shots. Get guys out in space...then jam it up the middle.

This scheme doesn't need to open up the pass lol, we'll just take it.
 
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#194
#194
My son is sweating this game. I told him not to worry, it should be a blowout taking the vast inequity of the rosters into account...then I told him if this game is close that it is just further proof of Kirby being a fraud.

He knows Kirby is a fraud and that they are winning in spite of him because they have so much talent advantage over every team they play.
 
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#195
#195
Ulysees E. McGill said:
My son is sweating this game. I told him not to worry, it should be a blowout taking the vast inequity of the rosters into account...then I told him if this game is close that it is just further proof of Kirby being a fraud.

He knows Kirby is a fraud and that they are winning in spite of him because they have so much talent advantage over every team they play.
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He may not be a great gameday coach and holds his offense back, but his defensive coaching is the very best. Maybe that doesn't make him a complete HC...far from Saban. But he may just show it's enough.

And the last great (single digits ppg allowed) defense? Kirby was DC at Bama.

Gotta give him credit where it's due, even if he's far from a complete HC. May be enough to not matter...hopefully not though. Don't know if I could handle those water thieves down south with 2 titles in 1 year 🙄
 
#196
#196
Ulysees E. McGill said:
My son is sweating this game. I told him not to worry, it should be a blowout taking the vast inequity of the rosters into account...then I told him if this game is close that it is just further proof of Kirby being a fraud.

He knows Kirby is a fraud and that they are winning in spite of him because they have so much talent advantage over every team they play.
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There's also another possible explanation (not that we shouldn't use the opportunity to drive home your point and paint Kirby as a choke artist...)

Heupel may just be a lot better than anyone, even Vegas...the nation...even Vol fans...expected.
 
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#198
#198
Devo182 said:
He may not be a great gameday coach and holds his offense back, but his defensive coaching is the very best. Maybe that doesn't make him a complete HC...far from Saban. But he may just show it's enough.

And the last great (single digits ppg allowed) defense? Kirby was DC at Bama.

Gotta give him credit where it's due, even if he's far from a complete HC. May be enough to not matter...hopefully not though. Don't know if I could handle those water thieves down south with 2 titles in 1 year 🙄
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I think he is a good defensive coach, but he isn't scheming this defense to greatness, he is just so loaded with insane physical talent at every position on defense that nobody can do anything with it.

For such a supposedly "great defensive coach" they have gotten mudholes stomped in them several times since he has been there when talent was even close to being equal and a couple of times when they had more on defense than the other team had on offense.
 
#199
#199
Devo182 said:
He may not be a great gameday coach and holds his offense back, but his defensive coaching is the very best. Maybe that doesn't make him a complete HC...far from Saban. But he may just show it's enough.

And the last great (single digits ppg allowed) defense? Kirby was DC at Bama.

Gotta give him credit where it's due, even if he's far from a complete HC. May be enough to not matter...hopefully not though. Don't know if I could handle those water thieves down south with 2 titles in 1 year 🙄
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Pruitt had great defenses at Bama and FSU too...just saying. It is the same dynamic...more talent at every position.
 
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#200
#200
engineerVOL said:
“Our offense is predicated on broken plays on defense” 🤔…. 🥴
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Yeah, you don’t average 37 points a game relying on defensive breakdowns. There is a genius to this offense. Even if we are scoring majority off broken plays, it is underpinned by the tempo. We don’t rely on busted coverages, we create them.
 
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