Hardest Jobs in College Football

[jonnon111]

Any competent coach should be pulling 8-4 to 10-2 regularly here.

This is why we are on the list.

 

[SockeyeVol]

Off the cuff ranking of instate talent:
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee and Louisiana
Alabama and South Carolina and Missouri and Mississipi
Arkansas and Kentucky

Population rank by state
FLA (22M)
GA (11)
TN (7)
MO (6)
SC and AL and LA (5)
KY (4)
AR and MS (3)

Demographically, it is absurd to say TN "doesn't have much in-state talent" compared to other SEC states...and least 4 of which then split their talent among 2 major state football programs.

 

[volfan2024]

Hardest job in college administration is look out for political leanings,learn how to play politics ,don’t trust anyone .

 

[volintheham]

I absolutely disagree.

Purely because there will always (ALWAYS) be some percentage of young men like Jack Jones and Derek Barnett and Alontae Taylor who are bound and determined to play for the team they love, the team they followed through their entire childhood. If they get the chance, that's where they'll go. All other considerations be damned.

It's not like they're sacrificing everything for it, either. They know all about fellas like Walter Payton and Randy Moss and Steve McNair and literally hundreds of others who went to no-name colleges and still got into the NFL, because the NFL scouts find talent wherever it is. These lads today, they know they're not putting an NFL chance at risk just because they're foregoing Bama or Ohio State.

And now NIL--surprisingly, perhaps--tends to level the playing field. See, before only the very wealthy programs who were ALSO willing to cheat could lure kids with $$. Now the honest programs can, too. And it doesn't take a lot of school $$, either, just one or two well-to-do alums down in the town square willing to give a kid and his family five or six figures in exchange for his photo in some advertisements. Nick Saban said NIL would make the rich richer...I believe it's going to do the opposite: it's going to deal the more honest programs in, and let the poorer programs leverage their alumni more easily.

So no, I don't think loyalty is gone. I think it was always there, even if the % of kids driven by it dropped pretty low for a while. And I think it might actually make a resurgence, thanks to NIL and the leveling effect that might have.
Go Vols!

You can also use an example of Trevor Lawrence for a rebuttal to your argument. Loyalty does not seem to be quite the driving factor like it was in the past. Systems and loyalty to coaches for an NFL transition appear to be more of a driving factor in todays athletic business environment. I currently live in Nashville with a recent move and my son plays HS football. Scouts from multiple SEC schools, along with some PAC schools all attend these games in this market. With multiple transplants in this growing market the "loyalty factor" has been diminished. UT is simply not near as popular as we would like to believe, and it saddens me. We cannot rely on in-state loyalty to be a driving factor in a recruits decision in this current atmosphere. Perhaps with success this will abate, but I am not confident in that paradigm.

Nick Saban is an "outlier" but I think he is correct as he is using NIL in media events already as you have seen with Byron Young making supposedly a million as a student. The large programs most certainly will have an advantage and this will forever change the landscape where smaller programs will be at such a disadvantage there will have to be a realignment of the NCAA system to level the competition. I think you overestimate honest programs and I would compare this dramatic shift to the passage of the 21st amendment or repealing the Volstead Act.

 

[peaygolf]

I gotta say...............UCLA and Auburn

Great schools with tradition and a great recruiting base, but you will always be in USC and Bama's shadow.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

UTAD made UT a tough place to win by being dumb and incompetent. Hopefully Danny White has changed that by bringing in Huepel.

 

[b_gann]

Off the cuff ranking of instate talent:
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee and Louisiana
Alabama and South Carolina and Missouri and Mississipi
Arkansas and Kentucky

Population rank by state
FLA (22M)
GA (11)
TN (7)
MO (6)
SC and AL and LA (5)
KY (4)
AR and MS (3)

Demographically, it is absurd to say TN "doesn't have much in-state talent" compared to other SEC states...and least 4 of which then split their talent among 2 major state football programs.

It's a flawed argument. Now, there is something to be said for the vast majority of D1 talent being 3-6 hours away from Knoxville. That's the bigger issue.

 

[b_gann]

Well you have Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and Kentucky every year, soon Oklahoma or Texas and another wild card from the west - this year it’s ole miss. So that’s 6 -7 or so game against teams in the top 20. We are fixing to play 1,2,3,4 in the conference in consecutive weeks.
if we also don’t have top 20 talent and an above average qb - we will never be 8-4 10-2 just by showing up.

Our coaching and recruiting has to be exceptional.

You had me at AL, GA, and FL but lost me at Kentucky. Good this year, yes, but we still went 7-3 against them in a terrible 10 year stretch for UT football. Not an issue if we have a competent coach as mentioned above. In a normal world where everything is rolling, it should be this:

Alabama
Georgia
Florida
LSU

Texas A&M
Tennessee
Auburn

Ole Miss
Arkansas
Kentucky
South Carolina

Miss St.
Mizzou
Vandy

Those would be my tiers of success.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

You had me at AL, GA, and FL but lost me at Kentucky. Good this year, yes, but we still went 7-3 against them in a terrible 10 year stretch for UT football. Not an issue if we have a competent coach as mentioned above. In a normal world where everything is rolling, it should be this:

Alabama
Georgia
Florida
LSU

Texas A&M
Tennessee
Auburn

Ole Miss
Arkansas
Kentucky
South Carolina

Miss St.
Mizzou
Vandy

Those would be my tiers of success.

Kentucky became good at football because their AD stopped doing dumb Kentucky crap. They hired a solid football coach, let him build the program, and got out of the way. It helps that they play in the SEC and can also dip into Ohio for recruits. Cant argue too much with your list BTW.

 

[rocky top buzz]

Someone else said it but basically Oklahoma is the answer as to why this is wrong. Almost all their players are from Texas, it's a small state.

If Bama has the same record as Tennessee over the next 10 years you could put them into being a tough job for the same reasons:

- Small state that doesn't produce a ton of talent
- Sky high expectations
- Competition in state from another SEC school
- Bama was great because Tennessee was down, Florida was down

Tennessee is included in these lists because of the huge fan base. Click bait. You really want someone to believe success at Tennessee is harder than success at perhaps Wake Forest? Purdue? Both Mississippi Schools? Oklahoma state? Oregon State? Maryland? South Carolina? NC State? How is Va Tech not on their list. Come on...

 

[VFL-82-JP]

You can also use an example of Trevor Lawrence for a rebuttal to your argument. Loyalty does not seem to be quite the driving factor like it was in the past. Systems and loyalty to coaches for an NFL transition appear to be more of a driving factor in todays athletic business environment. I currently live in Nashville with a recent move and my son plays HS football. Scouts from multiple SEC schools, along with some PAC schools all attend these games in this market. With multiple transplants in this growing market the "loyalty factor" has been diminished. UT is simply not near as popular as we would like to believe, and it saddens me. We cannot rely on in-state loyalty to be a driving factor in a recruits decision in this current atmosphere. Perhaps with success this will abate, but I am not confident in that paradigm.

Nick Saban is an "outlier" but I think he is correct as he is using NIL in media events already as you have seen with Byron Young making supposedly a million as a student. The large programs most certainly will have an advantage and this will forever change the landscape where smaller programs will be at such a disadvantage there will have to be a realignment of the NCAA system to level the competition. I think you overestimate honest programs and I would compare this dramatic shift to the passage of the 21st amendment or repealing the Volstead Act.

Trevor is actually a really good case study.

So we know not every high school player is Jack Jones. Bound and determined to go play for his childhood team, almost no matter what.

And not every high school player is that dude who called himself The Future, Kelley Washington. Pure mercenary, no allegiances at all.

Most high school kids are somewhere in between. They'll go to their childhood team, as long as their childhood team demonstrates real interest, and fits well schematically to the player's skill sets, and the coaches appeal to them as leaders. In other words, if the lad visits twenty schools, and five of the schools "fit," and one of those five is their childhood team, they'll probably go there.

That's kind of how it was for Trevor Lawrence, I think. If we'd been competitive in those few key ways, he would likely have come to Knoxville. We didn't need to be a playoff contender, as long as we let him know we'd really like to have him, and our coaching philosophies fit his skill sets, and he got along well with our staff and players.

But we all know those boxes did not get checked. So he went to Clemson instead.

Coaching turmoil has probably hurt us more than any other single factor over the past 13 years. It ruins those kinds of "we really want you" messages, and it takes away all assurance that the lad will get along with the coaching staff and fit their schemes. The mere fact of coaching turnover is enough to ruin recruiting efforts.

And we've had a ton of it.

But back to the main point: I think loyalty is still a factor, at least a secondary one, with lads like Trevor Lawrence. The ones "in the middle" who cheered for the Vols growing up but are willing to consider other places too. We'd have been competitive for him if we'd just had competent coaches who let him know we wanted him on the team and could use his talents well.

He was certainly no Kelley Washington.

 

[CR-vol]

The excuse that we don't have enough in state talent and therefore can never compete is lame. Tennessee practically recruits itself. With a good staff in here winning games, the recruits will come.

 

[pharmDvol11]

“Fan expectations also make life difficult and coaching stays short, but that problem isn’t just at Tennessee, one agent said.”

Pretty much sums up this thread

 

[NeverWe'llSever]

The last problem Tennessee has is getting talent. It is very easy at UT. Just have hired some sorry ass coaches the last 12 years.

 

[perico]

Out talent level in state is alot better than the stigma surrounding it. The problem has been landing them.

We are still at a major disadvantage. Over the last 6 years, Tennessee ranks behind Florida, Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, North Carolina and Alabama in terms of producing blue chip talent (just out of the southeast). The gap between the first two and the rest is massive. Florida and Georgia produce a ton of talent each year. Last year, we had less blue chip prospects that signed with a Power 5 program than North Carolina.

Here are the numbers

All 50 states, ranked by their percentage of national blue-chip recruits

 

[perico]

Off the cuff ranking of instate talent:
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee and Louisiana
Alabama and South Carolina and Missouri and Mississipi
Arkansas and Kentucky

Population rank by state
FLA (22M)
GA (11)
TN (7)
MO (6)
SC and AL and LA (5)
KY (4)
AR and MS (3)

Demographically, it is absurd to say TN "doesn't have much in-state talent" compared to other SEC states...and least 4 of which then split their talent among 2 major state football programs.

We are behind Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, Texas in producing blue chip talent over the last 5 years in the southeast.

On top of that, our top recruits have been leaving the state in high numbers.

You also neglect to mention that the biggest metro area in the state is still Memphis, which geographically is closer to Arkansas, Missouri, and the Mississippi schools than it is to Knoxville.

 

[bpalmer28]

How is Vanderbilt #1? They have the lowest expectations of all Power 5 schools. There's a reason why nobody knows who their HC is... it's because nobody cares. His job isn't to win the SEC, it's to keep players out of trouble and promote leftist agendas.

 

[perico]

How is Vanderbilt #1? They have the lowest expectations of all Power 5 schools. There's a reason why nobody knows who their HC is... it's because nobody cares. His job isn't to win the SEC, it's to keep players out of trouble and promote leftist agendas.

How many coaches have left Vanderbilt for a better job in the last 30 years besides Franklin. It’s a graveyard where careers flame out.

 

[bpalmer28]

Also... Scott Frost is VERY close to turning Nebraska around, it's just taking longer than people expected. Look at their results so far this season... they are competitive against the best in the conference. Martinez having his best season yet and has another year of eligibility.

 

[DaddyChad]

Auburn, Texas and Tennessee all have one thing in common, meddlesome boosters. One other would be in there as well Bama. All it takes is the right guy though. People forget Bama was so close to missing on Saban, Rich Rod had to turn them down, and they had to convince Saban to take the job.

 

[DaddyChad]

How is Vanderbilt #1? They have the lowest expectations of all Power 5 schools. There's a reason why nobody knows who their HC is... it's because nobody cares. His job isn't to win the SEC, it's to keep players out of trouble and promote leftist agendas.

It’s hard to win because no one cares about athletics there. I believe they have some weird structure to their AD as well. Can’t remember but it’s impossible to win at Vandy.

 

[DaddyChad]

Also... Scott Frost is VERY close to turning Nebraska around, it's just taking longer than people expected. Look at their results so far this season... they are competitive against the best in the conference. Martinez having his best season yet and has another year of eligibility.

Nebraska still is a tough gig. Hard to recruit to there, competition is tough, and expectations are high.

 

[37620VOL]

We have NCAA issues right now and that is our only significant detractor. Previously you could add admin incompetence but now I think we have that resolved. I think there are at least 7 tougher jobs in just the SEC.

 

[bigl3327]

Off the cuff ranking of instate talent:
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee and Louisiana
Alabama and South Carolina and Missouri and Mississipi
Arkansas and Kentucky

Population rank by state
FLA (22M)
GA (11)
TN (7)
MO (6)
SC and AL and LA (5)
KY (4)
AR and MS (3)

Demographically, it is absurd to say TN "doesn't have much in-state talent" compared to other SEC states...and least 4 of which then split their talent among 2 major state football programs.

Actually the only states in the SEC with worse in state talent annually than TN are Kentucy, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Missouri. This may surprise you, but no one has more NFL talent per capita than Mississippi. We are actually are not even close to Alabama or Louisiana in terms of blue chip talent. We produce a lot of kids that get to play college football, but not high numbers in the way of signing and producing with SEC schools. None of the SEC teams in the states below us are competing for championships regularly, but that is the expectation here by many. The problem is that yes, we had a stretch when we were a perennial top 25 team, but we've never been a consistent championship contender. The last time we played for a title was '98. The last time before that when we could even lay claim to a stake in the national title was '89.

 

[SockeyeVol]

We are still at a major disadvantage. Over the last 6 years, Tennessee ranks behind Florida, Georgia, Texas, Louisiana, North Carolina and Alabama in terms of producing blue chip talent (just out of the southeast). The gap between the first two and the rest is massive. Florida and Georgia produce a ton of talent each year. Last year, we had less blue chip prospects that signed with a Power 5 program than North Carolina.

Here are the numbers

All 50 states, ranked by their percentage of national blue-chip recruits

Thanks for that link.

One take-home from this is that Knoxville is REALLY well located for recruiting at what might be the most important state - Georgia, with ~ 30 blue chip recruits EACH year, and only only one in-state powerhouse program. Talk about potential overflow... An analytics approach might say that your recruiting dollar is best spent there...

Here's the data table from 5 years.

Blue-chip recruits by state, 2016-2020
State Blue-chips
Florida 258
Texas 245
California 206
Georgia 175
Louisiana 76
North Carolina 62
Alabama 62
Ohio 59
Maryland 52
Tennessee 51

By the way, we just swapped a head coach with Alabama connections for one with connections to a state with 4 times as many blue chip recruits per year.