Realignment Desirability of Other Conferences

[OrangeEtBlanc]

With the inevitable surge towards super-conferences, let’s evaluate the desirability of other conference schools in the rat-race that will be major realignment.

With the SEC & BIG10 as the major power players, the ACC and even PAC might find some of its members poached by the 2 overlords of college football, or even a merger of some schools from each conference.

The BIGXII is about to collapse, so let’s review their remaining schools first:

High Desirability:
Texas (SEC)
Oklahoma (SEC)

Moderate Desirability:
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech

Low Desirability:
West Virginia
Kansas
Baylor
Iowa State
TCU
Kansas State

To be fair, schools like Kansas, K-State, and WVU kinda straddle the Low-to-Moderate Line. But the geographical isolation of the Kansas schools and the low population of WV put them in low, in my opinion.

With the SEC making such major changes to the college landscape, the existence of the ACC may be threatened, as well. A chunk of those schools may find their way to the SEC or BIG10.

High Desirability:
North Carolina
Clemson
Florida State

Moderate Desirability:
Virginia
Miami
Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
PITT

Low Desirability:
Louisville
Duke
Boston College
Wake Forest
Syracuse

Louisville straddles the low-to-moderate category. Because realignment is driven by football, Duke finds itself in low territory as a private school with two large public universities available from the same state. Same with Miami as FSU is a better choice for expansion by another conference.

PAC

It’s possible the top schools from the BIG10 and PAC form their own super-conference while others get left out. In that scenario, we evaluate the Pacific Conference teams.

High Desirability:
USC
Oregon
Washington

Moderate Desirability:
Colorado
Arizona
Arizona St
Cal
UCLA

Low Desirability:
Stanford
Washington State
Oregon State
Utah

Again, if the top schools of the PAC & BIG10 were to merge in some way, the BIG may shed some teams.

High Desirability:
Ohio State
Michigan
Penn State

Moderate Desirability:
Nebraska
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Iowa

Low Desirability:
Indiana
Maryland
Rutgers
Minnesota
Northwestern
Purdue
Illinois

Could we see a day where Ohio State, Michigan, USC, and Oregon all play under the same conference banner?

My BIG10/PAC/BIG XII merger idea, just throwing crap against the wall:

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. USC
4. Oregon
5. Penn State
6. Washington
7. Nebraska
8. Colorado
9. Michigan State
10. Wisconsin
11. Iowa
12. Cal
13. UCLA
14. Minnesota
15. Oklahoma State (from BIXII)
16. Texas Tech (from BIGXII)
17. Kansas (from BIGXII)
18. Kansas State (from BIGXII)
19. Iowa State (from BIG XVII)
20. Notre Dame (from Independent)

I’d even revise this for some other ACC & BIGXII leftovers like Pitt, VT, WVU, and such.

This may be the only thing comparable to the SEC + UTX & OU, especially if the SEC were to also add UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson. The BIGPACXII may need such a massive TV footprint to compete with the money the SEC will be raking in.

Six teams from each super-conference in the College Football Playoff each year.

The NCAA no longer has any power and champions are no longer strongly determined by the media and selection committees as in the Pre-BCS, BCS, and current CFP format.

It’s all coming together.

 

[golfballs]

Desirability is in the eyes of the beholder. I don’t believe Clemson is that desirable to the SEC. They’d be much more desireable to the B1G along w the other mid Atlantic ACC schools. None of them individually have tremendous value, but collectively control a major market and expand a contiguous geographic footprint

 

[Grand Vol]

How did you ever come up with Texas Tech being "mid level" desirable?

If you put Tech there, TCU deserves that spot just from the DFW TV market.

And really, what leads you to honestly think the ACC is on shaky ground?

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

Desirability is in the eyes of the beholder. I don’t believe Clemson is that desirable to the SEC. They’d be much more desireable to the B1G along w the other mid Atlantic ACC schools. None of them individually have tremendous value, but collectively control a major market and expand a contiguous geographic footprint

I’m arguing for more than just a SEC perspective on desirability. I’m stating what I feel to be more overall desirability.

I agree with you, though—I don’t believe Clemson really adds much to the SEC, but recency bias makes the general populace view Clemson as more important than they are.

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

How did you ever come up with Texas Tech being "mid level" desirable?

If you put Tech there, TCU deserves that spot just from the DFW TV market.

And really, what leads you to honestly think the ACC is on shaky ground?

I would say that TCU being a private religious school (like Baylor) hurts its chances more than a school like Texas Tech, which has a larger alumni base.

I’m going to quote a post I made in another thread on why the ACC is in trouble.

“Would personally like to see North Carolina & Virginia added if we went to 18. If 20, I guess we could throw in FSU & Clemson. ND to the BIG10, along with any decent ACC leftovers.

We’re probably looking at a type of SEC/ACC & BIG 10/ PAC-12 merger in the near future to break away from the NCAA. At the very least, only the SEC, BIG10 & PAC12 will survive realignment.

Many schools will be left holding the bag, especially smaller, private schools, which is the weakness of the ACC.

I believe the ACC will be in trouble as the super-conferences take form. The ACC has 5 private schools in Duke, Wake Forest, Boston College, Syracuse, and Miami. Only Miami is of any brand value out of that group with regards to football. 35% of their conference is comprised of these private universities. Contrast with the SEC, which only has Vanderbilt, 6% (after adding Texas and Oklahoma).

The ACC has NC, NCState, Duke, and Wake Forest all in one state, with only the Tar Heels of any football brand worth. This hurts TV market contracts due to such overlap.

Two teams in Virginia with UVA & VTech. Two teams in Florida with FSU & Miami.

Thus, the ACC has 14 teams in 9 states, with 4 in one state and another 4 in two other states. This means that nearly 60% of their conference universities reside in 30% of their geographic footprint by state. Contrast with the SEC, which has no more than 2 teams per state (UT/Vandy, Bama/Auburn, Ole Miss/Miss St, and soon Texas/A&M), a 12-state geographic footprint, a 50% to 25% ratio of teams to states redundancy, but also with more culturally “college-football-minded” populations and better brands.

Not only that, but 4/9 of ACC states already have SEC football presence, which is by far the bigger draw with the exception of Clemson over South Carolina. UK> UL, UGA>GT, UF>FSU, UM.

They have no great addition prospects outside of Notre Dame, but will the Irish save them? The BIG10 has a more lucrative TV contract, better football brands, and is closer geographically for the Golden Domers. Not to mention historical rivalries with Michigan and others. I find the BIG10 a more likely landing spot when it all shakes out, despite closer ties with the ACC in recent history. WVU will not move the needle much due to no desirability in TV contracts and average brand value.

The ACC also has no real expansion territory to gain, as they are walled-in by the SEC & BIG10. The SEC expanded westward, as may the BIG10. The PAC will expand eastward. The ACC has nowhere to go to add new teams. The SEC, BIG10, and PAC will grow, but the ACC will stagnate.

Thus, the long-term benefit of the top ACC teams (whether by brand or TV contract value) would be to flee to the SEC. Clemson, FSU, UNC, Virginia, and Miami would best serve themselves by trying to jump ship right now.

From the SEC perspective: UNC brings a new market plus a good brand in football (and absolute blue-blood in basketball). UVA brings a high-prestige flagship university with the DC market (and a good basketball program). To me, FSU, Miami, and Clemson are rather redundant in this conference. However, if 20 is the magic number, then UNC, UVA, Clemson, and FSU are the way to go. VT is a decent brand, but UVA is much more desirable between the two.

This obliterates a regional conference rival, consolidates TV markets and contract money, and prevents other conferences from substantially encroaching on SEC territory. It completely nukes any competition from the BIG10 & PAC for complete supremacy.

TL;DR: After the BIGXII implodes, the ACC will be next to fall. SEC adds UNC, UVA, FSU, and Clemson to propel college football into the era of the super-conference.”

 

[golfballs]

How did you ever come up with Texas Tech being "mid level" desirable?

If you put Tech there, TCU deserves that spot just from the DFW TV market.

And really, what leads you to honestly think the ACC is on shaky ground?

Long term I think the ACC is in trouble

 

[TheDeeble]

I thought the ACC schools signed some blood pact contract a few years ago locking them in with the ACC till the 2030s. I know money can change anything but I thought it would be extremely difficult for a school that wanted to leave.

 

[Firebirdparts]

It won’t matter what I think, but I will prefer to expect UNC’s success to be short lived. I don’t know what wrong with Miami and Florida State, but I would think long term you’d expect some recovery there and obviously Clemson has some big chops right now. Thinking long term that would be my most desirable ACC teams.

 

[Boston Vol]

I thought the ACC schools signed some blood pact contract a few years ago locking them in with the ACC till the 2030s. I know money can change anything but I thought it would be extremely difficult for a school that wanted to leave.

They all signed a grant of media rights through the 2035-2036 school year. They can leave, but every penny that they earned through their media rights deal with their new conference would go back to the ACC.

 

[volsknx]

While Clemson is hot right now and has been for a few years, bring them i to the SEC and in 5-6 years we will be wondering why?

Having to play a yearly SEC schedule would put them back to what they were.

 

[volsknx]

It’s all about money. Bringing schools in that we already have a TV market in their location does not make sense.

Putting teams in a conference with other teams so distanced causes increased expenditures. Not feasible.

 

[DeepSpringsVol]

While Clemson is hot right now and has been for a few years, bring them i to the SEC and in 5-6 years we will be wondering why?

Having to play a yearly SEC schedule would put them back to what they were.

More like when Dabo leaves. If he ever takes the Bama job Clemson likely will drop back to 7-9 wins a year.

 

[OrangeEtBlanc]

They all signed a grant of media rights through the 2035-2036 school year. They can leave, but every penny that they earned through their media rights deal with their new conference would go back to the ACC.

That’s if the ACC as we know it still exists to enforce that GOR. There is the same issue with Texas & Oklahoma in the BIGXII, but if two other teams leave (Kansas looks poised to go to the BIG10, and supposedly OKState, KState, and TT may have had some backroom talks with the PAC), then those GOR will be forfeited from a voided contract.

Now, I’m not sure if even 4 teams leaving the ACC will cause it to liquidate (as the leftovers may try to force the GOR), but it would surely see its ESPN contract voided, which may affect that.

The key would be making sure you not only steal 2-4 teams from the ACC, but also that you destroy that conference as a functioning entity to prevent monetary loss by the new members. It also leaves them nowhere to go back to. Scorched earth.

The SEC then consolidates on-field excellence with off-field regional & national superiority.

Only a BIG10 + PAC merger could even attempt to challenge that.

College football as we knew it is changing, and, I feel, for the better.

Why are there 130+ schools in FBS football when only about 62 would have a realistic shot at making the CFP if they went undefeated? If *lol* Vanderbilt ran the table under the current setup, they would be in the playoff by virtue of their schedule & competition. Would Wake Forest? Maybe not. Would Western Kentucky? Most definitely not.

Why should we expand the CFP for teams like Coastal Carolina or Liberty to get destroyed by superior programs?

No. Those slots belong to the best teams in the best conferences. But with all of the 130 schools under the FBS umbrella, how can you argue they don’t deserve a chance? Easy, you break away from the rest and preserve it for the actually deserving programs of 40-60 teams. The other 70-90 schools can declare their own champion.

I love Bowl games, but most now are nothing more than glorified exhibitions with no stakes on the line. There are also WAY too many when nearly half the FBS is playing in one. How is THAT better for college football? Bowl games became irrelevant the day the BCS and then CFP began, making only 1-3 games of any importance.

In a super-conference world with expanded playoff, we no longer have champions decided by AP Polls, BCS computers, or committees. At least the top 3 from each conference gets a chance. The best will play the best, and the best will beat the best.

I, for one, am very excited for the future of the sport.

 

[stolitonic]

How did you ever come up with Texas Tech being "mid level" desirable?

If you put Tech there, TCU deserves that spot just from the DFW TV market.

And really, what leads you to honestly think the ACC is on shaky ground?

I would not get ahead of yourself on TCU in the DFW area. Dallas is pretty evenly split between little ut and Oklahoma. TCU and SMU have small pockets of fans, but they're a blip on the radar.

Truth be told, I lived in Dallas for like 2 years before I even realized TCU was in FT Worth. Granted, they were not very good at that point but still-it is not like their name was on the tips of everyone's tongues

I think Baylor is being a bit underestimated in all of the realignment discussions. In spite of their Briles era stink they have bounced back pretty well. Place is the Baptist version of ND so there's that also.

 

[Grand Vol]

I would not get ahead of yourself on TCU in the DFW area. Dallas is pretty evenly split between little ut and Oklahoma. TCU and SMU have small pockets of fans, but they're a blip on the radar.

Truth be told, I lived in Dallas for like 2 years before I even realized TCU was in FT Worth. Granted, they were not very good at that point but still-it is not like their name was on the tips of everyone's tongues

I think Baylor is being a bit underestimated in all of the realignment discussions. In spite of their Briles era stink they have bounced back pretty well. Place is the Baptist version of ND so there's that also.

Agreed that Dallas is more Longhorn territory than TCU, but one can't make the argument Tech is more "desirable" than TCU based on the Waco market.

Facing facts here, outside of OU and Texas, the Big 12 really doesn't have a lot to offer other conferences. Maybe Kansas in basketball and maybe Tech since they've been on the rise in recent years, but adding the left over teams is pretty much going to end up in the same situation the Big 10 got into with Nebraska minus the historical Blue Blood status they brought or what the Pac-12 brought in with Colorado.

Football is the lifeblood of the P5 conferences and the rest of the Big 12 doesn't add value to another conference.

 

[bamawriter]

I would not get ahead of yourself on TCU in the DFW area. Dallas is pretty evenly split between little ut and Oklahoma. TCU and SMU have small pockets of fans, but they're a blip on the radar.

Truth be told, I lived in Dallas for like 2 years before I even realized TCU was in FT Worth. Granted, they were not very good at that point but still-it is not like their name was on the tips of everyone's tongues

I think Baylor is being a bit underestimated in all of the realignment discussions. In spite of their Briles era stink they have bounced back pretty well. Place is the Baptist version of ND so there's that also.

Baylor isn't getting a major conference invite. They'll be a major player in the AAC, but that's as good as they can hope.

 

[Lawrence Wright]

 

[MAD]

 

[RDU VOL#14]

Baylor isn't getting a major conference invite. They'll be a major player in the AAC, but that's as good as they can hope.

You don’t think the ACC would consider them? I’d say there is an outside chance, especially IF (big if) Notre Dame joined the B1G. It would fit in with BC, Duke and Wake as small private schools with a strong religious affiliation that has decent football success and a basketball program that just won a title . BUBEAR incoming on this one.

 

[bamawriter]

You don’t think the ACC would consider them? I’d say there is an outside chance, especially IF (big if) Notre Dame joined the B1G. It would fit in with BC, Duke and Wake as small private schools with a strong religious affiliation that has decent football success and a basketball program that just won a title . BUBEAR incoming on this one.

ND can't join anyone other than the ACC for the next decade and change, so they won't play into the decision. Baylor simply doesn't add enough to make the pie bigger.

 

[stolitonic]

Baylor isn't getting a major conference invite. They'll be a major player in the AAC, but that's as good as they can hope.

We will have to agree to disagree.

I am in no way a Baylor fan. I am ambivalent about them in the same way I am with TCU, SMU, and a ton of other smaller schools. I am however not going to discount their programs.

Baylor opened a brand spanking new football stadium what, like 7-8 years ago which was planned in a way to be easily expandable should the need arise. They just won a natty in basketball a few months ago for Gods sake.

Now, 15 years ago-I would have agreed with you. No point in denying that they were horrid across the board. They have since however made quite a bit of noise in B12 football occasionally and are world class in other sports.

I just do not see 63 (or 79 depending on which conference building theory you buy into) other schools which would be more attractive to one of the four or whatever mega conferences. This holds true for a variety of reasons-facilities, wealth of the school, commitment to athletics, etc.

Are they SEC worthy? Nope, no way. Could I see them going to the ACC or perhaps even Pac 12 depending on how things shake out? Certainly.

 

[bamawriter]

We will have to agree to disagree.

I am in no way a Baylor fan. I am ambivalent about them in the same way I am with TCU, SMU, and a ton of other smaller schools. I am however not going to discount their programs.

Baylor opened a brand spanking new football stadium what, like 7-8 years ago which was planned in a way to be easily expandable should the need arise. They just won a natty in basketball a few months ago for Gods sake.

Now, 15 years ago-I would have agreed with you. No point in denying that they were horrid across the board. They have since however made quite a bit of noise in B12 football occasionally and are world class in other sports.

I just do not see 63 (or 79 depending on which conference building theory you buy into) other schools which would be more attractive to one of the four or whatever mega conferences. This holds true for a variety of reasons-facilities, wealth of the school, commitment to athletics, etc.

Are they SEC worthy? Nope, no way. Could I see them going to the ACC or perhaps even Pac 12 depending on how things shake out? Certainly.

A lot of those are fine arguments. But there's a few "Cons" to go along with those "Pros."

McLane Stadium is designed to be expanded, but its current capacity is less than 50k. Looking at their last few seasons, they don't sell it out unless TCU, Texas, or Oklahoma are in town. I have a tough time believing that they'd have regular sellouts while being paired with schools on either coast.

Distance is going to be an issue with joining either the ACC or Pac 12. While I understand that distance in the era of plane travel isn't what it used to be, WVU in the Big XII has shown that it is still problematic, particularly for the non-revenue sports. Baylor is 750 miles (as the crow flies) from Georgia Tech, the nearest ACC school. They're 740 miles from Colorado, the nearest in the Pac 12. They are 1610 miles from Boston College and 1720 miles from Washington, the two furthest schools in each conference. If you're depending on visiting fans to fill your stadium, those miles are going to cut into your revenue.

And, let's face it, if the Pac 12 is keeping BYU at arm's length because of the Mormon connection, they certainly aren't going to bring in the Southern Baptists. Fair or not, that's reality. Texas Tech, Okie Lite, Kansas, and maybe TCU are the only Big XII leftovers the Pac 12 would even talk to, and I'm not sold on any of those being likely.

Baylor's national championship in basketball is all well and good, but it's not going to tip the scales. UConn is one of the finest historical college basketball programs, and their football program can't even get a mid-major conference to take them.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

ND can't join anyone other than the ACC for the next decade and change, so they won't play into the decision. Baylor simply doesn't add enough to make the pie bigger.

Thats both true and false, but more true than false.
Here’s a pretty long thread that I read today that explains Notre Dame’s deal:

 

[golfballs]

View attachment 382557

LOL

 

[golfballs]

WSJ's latest college football team ranking of schools in terms of value:
1. Texas - $1,105,493,378
2. Ohio State - $1,048,166,317
3. Alabama - $1,009,903,620
4. Michigan - $924,625,003
5. Notre Dame - $913,401,562.
6. Georgia - $891,099,506
7. Oklahoma - $885,558,053
8. Auburn - $871,907,615
9. LSU - $727,849,384
10. Tennessee - $727,849,384
11. Florida - $634,885,946
12. Texas A&M - $540,883,003
13. Penn State - $518,754,453
14. Wisconsin - $474,552,451
15. Nebraska - $471,585,561
16. Arkansas - $462,727,317
17. South Carolina - $460,753,199
18. Iowa - $458,973,690
19. Washington - $440,821,919
20. Michigan St. - $354,160,110
21. Oregon
22. Ole Miss
23. Southern Cal
24. UCLA
25. Arizona St.
26. Clemson
27. Florida St.
28. Virginia Tech
29. Kansas St.
30. Oklahoma St.
31. Kentucky
32. Minnesota
33. Texas Tech
34. Stanford
35. Mississippi St.
36. Georgia Tech
37. Utah
38. Colorado
39. Kansas
40. Cal
41. Miami (Fl)
42. TCU
43. Iowa St.
44. Indiana
45. Northwestern
46. NC State
47. Louisville
48. Arizona
49. Illinois
50. UNC
51. Maryland
52. Washington St.
53. UVA
54. Purdue
55. Oregon St.
56. Missouri
57. Syracuse
58. Pitt
59. Baylor
60. BYU
61. Vanderbilt
62. Boston College
63. Boise St.
64. Wake Forest
65. UCF
66. Duke
67. Rutgers
68. West Virginia
69. S Florida
70. UConn