Addition by Subtraction -
I’ve previously posted that the apparent problem with our defense last year according to the data was our pass defense. I’ve spent some time digging deeper into the data to see if I could figure out more specifically what the problem was. jmo.
According to Football Outsiders we had the 2nd best defensive line in the conference last year and owing to personnel losses at Georgia, who was the only team better than us, we could have the best DL in the conference this year. jmo.
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Using a combination of data sources and analysis this is what I’ve come up with. We were very efficient against the run, moreso on passing downs, but still one of the best on standard downs. jmo.
It looks to me like we were hugely better against the pass on passing downs than we were on standard downs. Our inability to consistently defend the pass on standard downs appears to be what torpedoed our pass defense overall. Sorry - I don't yet have a chart for this. jmo.
Why is this important? My theory is that it may not have been our secondary personnel that was causing us problems in the back end last year. My theory is that it was likely the play-caller that was putting us in a vulnerable position vs the pass on standard downs. I suspect opposing offenses figured out early on that Pruitt was often loading the box on standard downs to try to help out our overrated linebackers against the run and this came at the expense of our secondary guys. jmo.
Addition by subtraction: Subtract 1 Jeremy Pruitt, Add 3.5 additional wins. jmo.
But it’s not all on Pruitt. Our scoring defense ranked 7th in the conference last year but if you take out Guarantano scoring for the other team our true scoring defense moves up to 4th best in the conference, behind UGA, A&M, and UA. jmo.
Addition by Subtraction: Subtract 1 Jarrett Guarantano, Add 2.5 additional wins. jmo.
It's really just simple math. I figure if Tim Banks knows what Asparagus is we could potentially have a top 25 defense this year. jmo.