Recruiting Forum Football Talk III

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#175,761
#175,761
Harrison Bailey –

A few days ago, I think, we had some commentary on QB release times and a concern was expressed about Bailey having a slow release. I posted the numbers from SEC STAT CAT on QB release times and that didn’t support the idea that HB has a slow release. jmo.

So, not dismissing contrary opinion this time around, I figured I needed to try to find out why some might have that idea. I think I’ve rewatched most of HB’s tape from last year and I think I understand what people are talking about and why it’s not reflected in the typical numbers that get published. jmo.

HB took 11 sacks and I think in college sacks are treated as rushes so it’s not really reflected in the release times, obviously, because there was no release, unless it was a fumble, and that doesn’t count in the passing data. So in the 68 pass attempts that HB had his numbers actually look pretty good. His release, average depth of throw, yards per attempt, yards per completion, completion percentage, NCAA passer rating, all those things looked really good. jmo.

HB actually is credited with 23 rushes. He had some good runs. I don’t know how many total snaps he played because I don’t know how many time he handed off but if we assume he had 79 passing attempts, 11 of which ended in sacks, that’s probably highest in the conference for 2020 for a sack rate. SEC STAT CAT I don’t think correctly calculates sack rate because they compare the sacks only to the number of pass attempts and it should be sacks/(attempts + sacks). With the way SSC calculates the rate he is by far the leader for sack rate. Anyway, I think this is why some have commented on HB having a slow release. I don't think he has a slow release but I think we either need to give him better protection or he needs to throw the ball away more often. (For reference last year JG's sack rate was around 9%, Gabriel was around 5.3%, and HB was about 13.9%).jmo.

He only had one pass that was counted as a throwaway and he had 3 fumbles. (Dillon Gabriel had 6 fumbles in 2019 and 3 in 2020 with about 5 times as many pass attempts, Hendon Hooker had 4 fumbles and JG had 5 fumbles, both with around 2+ times the number of pass attempts as HB). HB had the 3rd highest completion percentage in the conference behind Matt Jones and Matt Corral but he also led the conference in percentage of his passes that were uncatchable (from his tape I would actually count some of these as throwaways). jmo.

His receivers had the lowest drop percentage (1.47%) of any QB in the conference last year, when he threw the ball to them. That’s actually pretty neat. I like that stat. JT Shrout on the same team led the entire conference in receiver drop rate (16.67%). Obviously, we’re not dealing with big numbers but that’s just an interesting stat. jmo.

HB had the 6th highest 1D+TD percentage in the conference. JT was #15 and JG was #16. HB would be 3rd best in this stat for all returning QBs in the conference this year. jmo.

All 3 of our QBs were near the bottom of the conference in terms of percentage of their throws that were screens, play action passes, or RPOs. We weren’t exactly running a modern offense. jmo.

I think from continuing to look at this closely HB is probably our QB but HH could be the choice for a number of good reasons. I don’t have enough information to comment on BM. Everything is really different with the new offense. I had been thinking that the offense might favor a dual threat QB but Milton who had a lot of ground success with Frost was less than half as productive with Heupel. Gabriel never got above 2.5 yards per carry in either 2019 or 2020. Meanwhile under Heupel the UCF offense was piling up yards and points by the boat loads. jmo.

It will be interesting to see what this looks like when we take the field against Bowling Green. I think it’s Bailey but he’s young and we don’t want the other 2 guys hitting the portal before the season starts. I mean after the season we’ll have Salter and presumably one or two new recruits so BM and/or HH leaving at that point doesn’t hurt as much. I don’t see HB going anywhere. He seems to be a real Tennessee kid and “the team rallies around him”. jmo.
 
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#175,767
#175,767
I didn't see much info on yesterday's practice. Any coaches interviews? I sure hope Salter, French and Willis get their head on straight and get some reps this Spring.
 
#175,770
#175,770
I’m no fan of Dan Wolken, but I think he’s on to something with this column about why Roy Williams retired and what it says about where the game is going.

Roy Williams' retirement begins end for college coaching legends

On the one hand, this trend is good for a non-blue blood program like us. On the other, Barnes seems a lot more like Roy than some of the younger generation coaches who may be more adept at navigating the new normal in college basketball.
 
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#175,772
#175,772
InVOLuntary said:
I've said all along that TooToo may be the best linebacker on our team but may not be in the top 10 on an upper tier team. He better be careful about what he wishes for. Same with Crouch.
Click to expand...

I think Alabama would be a bad idea but I've looked at the Ohio State situation and it's ENTIRELY different. They lost both of their starting inside guys, 2 5-stars. HT would be pretty much the highest rated player in the room there, not by much but still, it's not Alabama. I think with his experience and talent his odds of earning a starting position at Ohio State might be above 50%. I'd rather he go there than stay in the SEC, if it's not with us. jmo.

edit to add link to Buckeye fans discussion on HT: Henry To'oto'o Visiting Columbus **Rumor**
 
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#175,773
#175,773
InVOLuntary said:
I've said all along that TooToo may be the best linebacker on our team but may not be in the top 10 on an upper tier team. He better be careful about what he wishes for. Same with Crouch.
Click to expand...
Seems like he wants a shot and a NC ring at all cost and evidently is willing to ride the bench and/or play special teams..

Edit: Whatever his plan is, he better get it together. He's missing spring practice at OSU and Bama..
 
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#175,774
#175,774
m1al said:
Seems like he wants a shot and a NC ring at all cost and evidently is willing to ride the bench and/or play special teams..

Edit: Whatever his plan is, he better get it together. He's missing spring practice at OSU and Bama..
Click to expand...
Awesome question for the bar...........

Would you rather just play sparingly on special teams and win a National Championship ring.........
or
Play at a smaller school (group of 5) and start for two of your four years and just go to a bowl game or two?
 
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