Yeah..well so is the ******* effect...I have never built myself up as a great intellect, and I never will, and that does not make me wrong when it comes to this...they waste millions upon millions every year on guys that are not worth the risk, and that is proven every year...over and over and over..
There are 30 NBA Temas. Each with a max roster size of 15.
That means 450 NBA players exist at any given time.
Most teams play 10-11 deep. So about 338 players that actively see playing time.
Average career length is 5 years.
60 players are selected via the draft each year.
Which is a near exact equivalent replacement for the number of players that see playing time vs average career length. We can assume the remaining players are acquired via free agency.
Lastly, the ratio of undrafted players that become all stars is very near zero. I believe it’s actual zero this year. Similarly, all-stars taken outside the lottery is also very low.
So no, it does not appear they get it wrong. It appears you just have a misunderstanding about the math. You believe there is a high number of “busts” when it’s just a crowded league.
If there were so many “busts” as you say, there would be this natural vacuum of undrafted or late round picks that were all-stars or star level contributors and that’s just not the case.