Margin is a stat of the past

[BruinVol]

I keep seeing posters talking about the margin of our losses as if that stat has been a true consistent indicator over the course of history.

watching the playoffs should have made us realize that discussing that stat really doesn’t matter anymore.


I did some research to prove my point and how much the game has just changed over the the short time period of 5 years.

2015:
SEC games only
Ave point diff was 14 pts
34% of games were decided by 7 pts or less
26% of games were decided by 20 or more pts


2020 :
SEC games only
Ave point diff was 18.5 pts
23% of games were decided by 7 pts or less
45% of games were decided by 20 or more pts



So as we discuss what’s makes next year a successful season I think it’s time we stop even discussing margin of games we might lose. It’s w\Ls that matter and it’s just a fact that nearly half of all SEC games are now going to be 20pt blowouts.

 

[99gator]

I keep seeing posters talking about the margin of our losses as if that stat has been a true consistent indicator over the course of history.

watching the playoffs should have made us realize that discussing that stat really doesn’t matter anymore.


I did some research to prove my point and how much the game has just changed over the the short time period of 5 years.

2015:
SEC games only
Ave point diff was 14 pts
34% of games were decided by 7 pts or less
26% of games were decided by 20 or more pts


2020 :
SEC games only
Ave point diff was 18.5 pts
23% of games were decided by 7 pts or less
45% of games were decided by 20 or more pts



So as we discuss what’s makes next year a successful season I think it’s time we stop even discussing margin of games we might lose. It’s w\Ls that matter and it’s just a fact that nearly half of all SEC games are now going to be 20pt blowouts.

I think there is some truth to this.

But, I also think the way a lot of these games have played out the margin is meaningful.

The Auburn game was a competitive, hard fought game. So even though the margin of victory was more than that of the Florida game, the Auburn game was more competitive having watched it.

The margin of victory by Kentucky was meaningful. Losing double digits to Arkansas after having a double digit halftime lead is meaningful.

So, it all depends.

 

[landscapingvol]

I keep seeing posters talking about the margin of our losses as if that stat has been a true consistent indicator over the course of history.

watching the playoffs should have made us realize that discussing that stat really doesn’t matter anymore.


I did some research to prove my point and how much the game has just changed over the the short time period of 5 years.

2015:
SEC games only
Ave point diff was 14 pts
34% of games were decided by 7 pts or less
26% of games were decided by 20 or more pts


2020 :
SEC games only
Ave point diff was 18.5 pts
23% of games were decided by 7 pts or less
45% of games were decided by 20 or more pts



So as we discuss what’s makes next year a successful season I think it’s time we stop even discussing margin of games we might lose. It’s w\Ls that matter and it’s just a fact that nearly half of all SEC games are now going to be 20pt blowouts.

I agree, we are a 16-19 team the last three seasons

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

A combination of the eye-test and margin matters. For example, we lost by 8 to GSU but they absolutely dominated us in the 2nd half. We lost by 22 to Bama in 2019 and that game was closer than the score. We lost by 31 to Bama this year and that game wasnt as close as the score.

I think a better indication was "When was the game over"

 

[MemphisVol77]

You make a good point and you did the work to back it up.

I would state that margin is not entirely a stat of the past though. If a team scores late in the 4th to make it 2 score margin of victory it's not the same as being down by 10-14 to start the 4th.

Except for Auburn (Arkansas?), were we within a score to tie or take the lead midway through the 4th Qtr, in any of our losses?

As scoring has been steadily increasing for years across CFB, the emphasis on Margin needs to be contextualized. If you lose 10-14 or 30-42, the percentage is the same. 10-14 you were obviously in the game. 30-42 it depends on when the scoring occurred.

I think our frustration with the 2020 Vols and the emphasis on Margin was used correctly. It's not the double digit losses so much as the reality, we were out of the games by the start or middle of the 4th Qtr.

 

[The Original Fade]

A combination of the eye-test and margin matters. For example, we lost by 8 to GSU but they absolutely dominated us in the 2nd half. We lost by 22 to Bama in 2019 and that game was closer than the score. We lost by 31 to Bama this year and that game wasnt as close as the score.

I think a better indication was "When was the game over"

Totally agree. Garbage TDs late in the 4th Qtr when your opponent throws their scrubs out on the field really need to be discounted

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Here is when the "games were over" this year

UGA: Early 4th quarter
UK: Early 3rd quarter
UF: Early 3rd quarter
Bama: Early 2nd quarter (Ha ha, before the game started)
A&M: Early 4th quarter
Arkansas: When Pruitt didn't kick the FG late
Auburn: Middle of 4th quarter

 

[SockeyeVol]

An increase in the margin of victory might just be due to less parity in the conference than there was five years ago. Crappy teams are still crappy teams, they are just getting blown out a little more. And a smaller middle class of teams. Etc.

 

[BruinVol]

I think a better indication was "When was the game over"

I think that’s a great point


But the main problem is most people aren’t realistic when games are “over”. So that’s a stat that can’t really be defined


But I do agree with your overall point

 

[SockeyeVol]

..And one thing that has been consistent across all sports, going back 5, 10, 20, 30 years is that the ratio of Points Scored vs. Points Allowed is a a powerful indicator of a team's dominance over the course of a season.

Teams with dominant PS/PA ratios tend to go farther and do better in the playoffs than teams that came in with lower ratios and yet a good W/L record.

So yes, Tennessee getting torched by a large amount, on average, is a real concern. Much more so than if they had lost 7 close games.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

Things like margin and time of possession and 3rd down conversions CAN be deceptive but over the long haul, if a team is losing by double digits, isn't controlling the ball, isn't getting the 1st down..... it's not likely they're a winning program.

Someone trying to downplay margin is, most likely, someone trying to be an apologist for a losing program.

 

[landscapingvol]

Here is when the "games were over" this year

UGA: Early 4th quarter
UK: Early 3rd quarter
UF: Early 3rd quarter
Bama: Early 2nd quarter (Ha ha, before the game started)
A&M: Early 4th quarter
Arkansas: When Pruitt didn't kick the FG late
Auburn: Middle of 4th quarter

Umm we scored a grand total of 24 points in the UK, Arkansas, A and M, Bama, UF, Auburn, and UGA games the entire 2nd half with 14 points being totally irrelevant in the Bama and UF games. Your assessments aren’t close to accurate.

 

[Rocky Top Raby]

We can't be far from "it doesn't matter how many games you lose". Margin still matters IMO. At what point is it ok for your team to not be trying their best to make the game closer? if your 2's (or 1's) can't stop their 2's and 3's then that's still you vs them and a factor on how good a coach is.

 

[airvols]

I keep seeing posters talking about the margin of our losses as if that stat has been a true consistent indicator over the course of history.

watching the playoffs should have made us realize that discussing that stat really doesn’t matter anymore.


I did some research to prove my point and how much the game has just changed over the the short time period of 5 years.

2015:
SEC games only
Ave point diff was 14 pts
34% of games were decided by 7 pts or less
26% of games were decided by 20 or more pts


2020 :
SEC games only
Ave point diff was 18.5 pts
23% of games were decided by 7 pts or less
45% of games were decided by 20 or more pts



So as we discuss what’s makes next year a successful season I think it’s time we stop even discussing margin of games we might lose. It’s w\Ls that matter and it’s just a fact that nearly half of all SEC games are now going to be 20pt blowouts.

So with that reasoning, if you lose it’s doesn’t matter how bad you get beat. I’m glad you’re not in the military, doesn’t matter how many men die in a battle it’s just a loss. This may be the most misguided post of the month.

 

[chrismc1000]

I keep seeing posters talking about the margin of our losses as if that stat has been a true consistent indicator over the course of history.

watching the playoffs should have made us realize that discussing that stat really doesn’t matter anymore.


I did some research to prove my point and how much the game has just changed over the the short time period of 5 years.

2015:
SEC games only
Ave point diff was 14 pts
34% of games were decided by 7 pts or less
26% of games were decided by 20 or more pts


2020 :
SEC games only
Ave point diff was 18.5 pts
23% of games were decided by 7 pts or less
45% of games were decided by 20 or more pts



So as we discuss what’s makes next year a successful season I think it’s time we stop even discussing margin of games we might lose. It’s w\Ls that matter and it’s just a fact that nearly half of all SEC games are now going to be 20pt blowouts.

More teams in the SEC have gotten way better in the last 5 seasons and we either stayed the same or got worse.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Umm we scored a grand total of 24 points in the UK, Arkansas, A and M, Bama, UF, Auburn, and UGA games the entire 2nd half with 14 points being totally irrelevant in the Bama and UF games. Your assessments aren’t close to accurate.

These were "real time" game probabilities when we had less than 5% chance to win. Those are the timeframes in which those events occurred.

 

[BruinVol]

So with that reasoning, if you lose it’s doesn’t matter how bad you get beat. I’m glad you’re not in the military, doesn’t matter how many men die in a battle it’s just a loss. This may be the most misguided post of the month.

I’ve seen it said that if Pruitt is the coach next year and goes 9-3 that wouldn’t be considered a good season if he gets blown out by Florida, bama or Georgia.

That’s an insane take. Considering this program has only won 8 games twice in nearly 2 decades

imo
6-6 or worse gets Pruitt fired
7-5 keeps the seat hot as hell
8-4 is a great year

And I don’t think the margin of the losses mean a damn thing

 

[VaBornVol]

If half of all SEC games are being decided by 20pts, Tennessee is the reason the average is so high. In 13 of Pruitt’s 19 loses you could’ve given UT 20 more points and we still would’ve lost

 

[BruinVol]

If half of all SEC games are being decided by 20pts, Tennessee is the reason the average is so high. In 13 of Pruitt’s 19 loses you could’ve given UT 20 more points and we still would’ve lost

4 of the 7 losses were more than 20. Close to average

2/3 or the 3 wins were more than 20

 

[cwbytruckers]

For me its not just aboit the score board. Its what hasnt happened on the field and at halftime. How can any college football player that has been recruited to Tennessee not be able to stop the slant? How can an SEC coach not be able to.get your team in position to stop it? Baffles me.

 

[Spawn]

Only thing I see is

Candy, KY at home by a landslide, ga state, BYU, and Arky. Those are enough for immediate termination. Admin stupidly gave him a raise and extension.

 

[VaBornVol]

4 of the 7 losses were more than 20. Close to average

2/3 or the 3 wins were more than 20

To your point, Florida players were writing their Instagram handles on the team whiteboards, flirting with girls in the stands while Tennessee put up two last minute trash touchdowns. Otherwise we loose that one by 24

 

[sechamp2012]

An increase in the margin of victory might just be due to less parity in the conference than there was five years ago. Crappy teams are still crappy teams, they are just getting blown out a little more. And a smaller middle class of teams. Etc.

I agree without doing in research , just seems like a case of rich getting richer & the poor getting poorer. I may be proved wrong but when this Portal goes full bore for about 4 years it will get worse. The better players on crappy teams will portal up and the lesser players (no playing time) on upper teams will portal down. Evolving the conference to 2 or 3 top teams forever the rest mediocre to just bad forever. The 2 or 3 will trade out king of the hill, with whoever has the most dynamic QB or a Herschel like RB. That one team will rise to the top. 3 fan bases will be dialed in, the rest not so much.

 

[landscapingvol]

These were "real time" game probabilities when we had less than 5% chance to win. Those are the timeframes in which those events occurred.

“Real time probabilities”, is that what we have resorted to? You can’t be serious?

 

[JonGrudensAgent]

Scoring margins are increasing as offensive output is increasing and teams are more aggressive in trying to score.

Would be nice to have a head coach who could appreciate the shift to the offensive side of the game.

Keep thinking back to Pruitts mindset at the end of halves as a prime example of his philosophy being out of date.