Power 5 Coaches w/Losing Records in First 3 Years

#1
DownNDirty

DownNDirty

Member
Joined
Sep 28, 2004
Messages
1,917
Likes
1,321
#1
I ran some more statistics and went back to the early 90s the best I could and pulled all Power 5 schools who have had head coaches who have coached 3 full seasons with losing records and tried to see if I can find any nuggets from the research. I've found 50 head coaches who have had losing records in the first 3 seasons at a P5 school. I don't see a lot of good news for Pruitt supporters with these statistics either.

Of the 50 coaches measured, there are only a handful who had success after having a losing record their first 3 seasons.

Number one on the list is Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State. He was 18-19 his first 3 seasons (4-7, 7-6, and 7-6) and now sits at 137-67 with a 67.20% winning percentage. He's been there for 16 years and counting now. He barely had a losing record and if not for a bad first year he wouldn't be on the list at all.

Art Briles is number 2 for his efforts at Baylor. He went 4-8, 4-8, then 7-6 his 3rd year. Overall 15-22 first 3 seasons. He ended his run 65-37 with a 63.70% winning percentage. Of course, he has an asterisk beside of his name as he was removed as the coach due to the NCAA infractions. So he hasn't had any games as a HC since that time.

Gary Pinkel at Missouri was number 3. He went 4-7, 5-7, then 8-5 for 17-19 his first 3 seasons. Overall he went 118-73 with a 61.80% winning percentage. He was also removed due to other circumstances that had nothing to do with his W/L percentage.

Kirk Ferentz at Iowa is number 4. He went 1-10, 3-9, and 7-5 his first 3 seasons for 11-24 overall after that really bad first season. He's went 168-106 at Iowa for a 61.30% winning percentage and has been there for 22 seasons.

Jim Harbaugh at Stanford was number 5 surprisingly. He went 4-8, 5-7, then 8-5 season 3 for 17-20 overall. He wound up 29-21 at Stanford for a 58.00% winning percentage. At Michigan, he has went 49-22 since for a 69.00% winning percentage. This makes him a very big exception to all the rules. But he wasn't fired from Stanford as he left on his own accord for the NFL and then returns to Michigan. Harbaugh also had taken over a putrid Stanford team that had went 1-11, 5-6, 4-7, 4-7, and 2-9 the 5 years prior to his arrival.

There were 5 other coaches who were below .500 their first 3 seasons that had a better than 50% winning percentage:

Dirk Koetter at Arizona State winds up 40-34 - 54.10%
Mike Leach at Washington State was 12-25 his first 3 seasons but in the 5 seasons after he made up the difference to come out 55-47 overall for a 53.90%
Tom O' Brein at NC State started 16-21 but wound up 40-35 with 53.30% winning percentage
Dennis Franchione at Texas A&M started 16-19 and finished 32-29 for 52.50% - he then went on to go 20-28 after he left A&M for 41.70%
Tom Allen at Indiana started 5-7, 5-7, and 8-5 and is currently at 24-22 and 52.20%

Pruitt is 17th on the list at 45.71% just below Dave Clawson at Wake Forest and Ron Prince at Kansas State and just above David Cutcliffe at Duke and Rich Brooks at Kentucky.

Most of the coaches on this list who left a school then went to another school did not get over 50% in wins after the fact. Actually, of the 50 only 8 had head coaching experience after the first job measured.

Of those 8, here's how they rank by winning percentage in their next stop:

Jim Harbaugh - 69%
Sonny Dykes - 62.90%
Charlie Strong - 56.80%
Rich Rodriguez - 55.10%
Dennis Franchione - 41.70%
Mike Leach - 36.40%
Steve Addazio - 25%
Randy Edsall - 16.66%

Of the 50 P5 coaches measured only 10 finish with over 50% at the school and those names are mentioned above.

Only one coach - David Cutcliffe - has more than 10 years of experience (13) with under a 50% winning percentage and has maintained his job. Of course, he coaches at Duke so it's not expected for them to do much better than they are currently doing already.

Just for fun and info the worst coaches statistically all had 4 years at their programs. Coming up at the very bottom of the barrel was David Beaty at Kansas who went 6-42 for a 12.50% winning percentage overall. Chris Ash at Rutgers went 8-32 for 20% and Ty Willingham at Washington was at 22.90%. The only other coach under 30% who survived 3 years was Tom Holmoe at California who went 16-39 for a 29.10% winning percentage.

Nearly every single coach ahead of Pruitt showed progress in W/L records from year 1 to year 3. Pruitt regressed from 8-5 to 3-7. If I had more time and energy I would measure the amount of blowout losses all of these coaches suffered in their first 3 years to see how Pruitt stacks up there. I have a feeling he would be near the very bottom of this list for 21+ point losses in 3 years.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet so you can see all of the other statistics that are involved in this research for yourself......



Not trying to just pile on but I really like statistics - always have. They tell a story that is hard to spin away from no matter how hard some may try.
 
  • Like
Reactions: coachballcoach, GoBears, Matt2496 and 59 others
#3
#3
While the stats definitely don’t support Pruitt ever being successful here, it can be done. I really hope he gets things back on track that way the next HC isn’t walking into the same mess he did.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CedarHillVol and N.ohio vol
#5
#5
Very well put together. The only slight technicality is that Pruitt would likely be a few wins better had the schedule not changed due to Covid. But, still interesting to see where coaches were after year 3 vs where they ended up.

It's also kind of funny to see in addition to CJP and Derek Dooley, 3 other coaches who we offered jobs to on that list..
 
  • Like
Reactions: Kdbnab1, norriscraftbasser, Johnnyreb#VFL and 3 others
#6
#6
It's fairly amusing that you condemn Pruitt's chances of succeeding in year 4+ by saying there aren't a lot of other guys who batted below .500 in years 1-3 went on to succeed later....but then go on to name guys like Harbaugh (who tons of folks here thought was the cat's meow when Michigan first hired him), Briles, Leach, and Gundy (all of whom have been mentioned on wish lists to replace Pruitt).

There's irony in there, even if it is a little convoluted.


p.s. Why isn't Frank Beamer (Va Tech) on your list? 11-21-1 in his first three seasons there, I think. Certainly below .500. Ended up 238-121-2 there, all-time. You seem to have an incomplete list....
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rickyvol77
#7
#7
VFL-82-JP said:
p.s. Why isn't Frank Beamer (Va Tech) on your list? 11-21-1 in his first three seasons there, I think. Certainly below .500. Ended up 238-121-2 there, all-time. You seem to have an incomplete list....
Click to expand...

OP said he went back to the early 90's in like the first line or two of his post. Beamer started coaching in the 80's.
 
  • Like
Reactions: GoBears, BSOVOL1967, Seattle Hillbilly and 6 others
#8
#8
DownNDirty said:
I ran some more statistics and went back to the early 90s the best I could and pulled all Power 5 schools who have had head coaches who have coached 3 full seasons with losing records and tried to see if I can find any nuggets from the research. I've found 50 head coaches who have had losing records in the first 3 seasons at a P5 school. I don't see a lot of good news for Pruitt supporters with these statistics either.

Of the 50 coaches measured, there are only a handful who had success after having a losing record their first 3 seasons.

Number one on the list is Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State. He was 18-19 his first 3 seasons (4-7, 7-6, and 7-6) and now sits at 137-67 with a 67.20% winning percentage. He's been there for 16 years and counting now. He barely had a losing record and if not for a bad first year he wouldn't be on the list at all.

Art Briles is number 2 for his efforts at Baylor. He went 4-8, 4-8, then 7-6 his 3rd year. Overall 15-22 first 3 seasons. He ended his run 65-37 with a 63.70% winning percentage. Of course, he has an asterisk beside of his name as he was removed as the coach due to the NCAA infractions. So he hasn't had any games as a HC since that time.

Gary Pinkel at Missouri was number 3. He went 4-7, 5-7, then 8-5 for 17-19 his first 3 seasons. Overall he went 118-73 with a 61.80% winning percentage. He was also removed due to other circumstances that had nothing to do with his W/L percentage.

Kirk Ferentz at Iowa is number 4. He went 1-10, 3-9, and 7-5 his first 3 seasons for 11-24 overall after that really bad first season. He's went 168-106 at Iowa for a 61.30% winning percentage and has been there for 22 seasons.

Jim Harbaugh at Stanford was number 5 surprisingly. He went 4-8, 5-7, then 8-5 season 3 for 17-20 overall. He wound up 29-21 at Stanford for a 58.00% winning percentage. At Michigan, he has went 49-22 since for a 69.00% winning percentage. This makes him a very big exception to all the rules. But he wasn't fired from Stanford as he left on his own accord for the NFL and then returns to Michigan. Harbaugh also had taken over a putrid Stanford team that had went 1-11, 5-6, 4-7, 4-7, and 2-9 the 5 years prior to his arrival.

There were 5 other coaches who were below .500 their first 3 seasons that had a better than 50% winning percentage:

Dirk Koetter at Arizona State winds up 40-34 - 54.10%
Mike Leach at Washington State was 12-25 his first 3 seasons but in the 5 seasons after he made up the difference to come out 55-47 overall for a 53.90%
Tom O' Brein at NC State started 16-21 but wound up 40-35 with 53.30% winning percentage
Dennis Franchione at Texas A&M started 16-19 and finished 32-29 for 52.50% - he then went on to go 20-28 after he left A&M for 41.70%
Tom Allen at Indiana started 5-7, 5-7, and 8-5 and is currently at 24-22 and 52.20%

Pruitt is 17th on the list at 45.71% just below Dave Clawson at Wake Forest and Ron Prince at Kansas State and just above David Cutcliffe at Duke and Rich Brooks at Kentucky.

Most of the coaches on this list who left a school then went to another school did not get over 50% in wins after the fact. Actually, of the 50 only 8 had head coaching experience after the first job measured.

Of those 8, here's how they rank by winning percentage in their next stop:

Jim Harbaugh - 69%
Sonny Dykes - 62.90%
Charlie Strong - 56.80%
Rich Rodriguez - 55.10%
Dennis Franchione - 41.70%
Mike Leach - 36.40%
Steve Addazio - 25%
Randy Edsall - 16.66%

Of the 50 P5 coaches measured only 10 finish with over 50% at the school and those names are mentioned above.

Only one coach - David Cutcliffe - has more than 10 years of experience (13) with under a 50% winning percentage and has maintained his job. Of course, he coaches at Duke so it's not expected for them to do much better than they are currently doing already.

Just for fun and info the worst coaches statistically all had 4 years at their programs. Coming up at the very bottom of the barrel was David Beaty at Kansas who went 6-42 for a 12.50% winning percentage overall. Chris Ash at Rutgers went 8-32 for 20% and Ty Willingham at Washington was at 22.90%. The only other coach under 30% who survived 3 years was Tom Holmoe at California who went 16-39 for a 29.10% winning percentage.

Nearly every single coach ahead of Pruitt showed progress in W/L records from year 1 to year 3. Pruitt regressed from 8-5 to 3-7. If I had more time and energy I would measure the amount of blowout losses all of these coaches suffered in their first 3 years to see how Pruitt stacks up there. I have a feeling he would be near the very bottom of this list for 21+ point losses in 3 years.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet so you can see all of the other statistics that are involved in this research for yourself......



Not trying to just pile on but I really like statistics - always have. They tell a story that is hard to spin away from no matter how hard some may try.
Click to expand...


Did you adjust for first time HC and who were OCs vs DCs prior to their first HC gig?
 
#9
#9
While Mike Gundy may be #1, in his 16 years as the OSU head coach, he has only won one Big 12 championship. A better analysis might be how long after a 3-season losing record did it take for the coach to win a conference championship. In Gundy's case it took him 4 years (2011).

I can guarantee you Pruitt is not going to get 7 years to see if he can win the SEC championship. Tennessee's expectations are obviously so much higher than OSUs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lifeisdeep and Skippy95
#10
#10
BigOrangeTrain said:
While the stats definitely don’t support Pruitt ever being successful here, it can be done. I really hope he gets things back on track that way the next HC isn’t walking into the same mess he did.
Click to expand...

I think by some measure CJP has stabilized a few things for the next coach. This next season and recruiting class will be a tell all. JP better sign a top five class because it’s in his own back yard, and if he can’t do it someone else needs to get here that can recruit Tennessee.
 
  • Like
Reactions: preacherwebb and SpookyAction
#11
#11
DownNDirty said:
I ran some more statistics and went back to the early 90s the best I could and pulled all Power 5 schools who have had head coaches who have coached 3 full seasons with losing records and tried to see if I can find any nuggets from the research. I've found 50 head coaches who have had losing records in the first 3 seasons at a P5 school. I don't see a lot of good news for Pruitt supporters with these statistics either.

Of the 50 coaches measured, there are only a handful who had success after having a losing record their first 3 seasons.

Number one on the list is Mike Gundy at Oklahoma State. He was 18-19 his first 3 seasons (4-7, 7-6, and 7-6) and now sits at 137-67 with a 67.20% winning percentage. He's been there for 16 years and counting now. He barely had a losing record and if not for a bad first year he wouldn't be on the list at all.

Art Briles is number 2 for his efforts at Baylor. He went 4-8, 4-8, then 7-6 his 3rd year. Overall 15-22 first 3 seasons. He ended his run 65-37 with a 63.70% winning percentage. Of course, he has an asterisk beside of his name as he was removed as the coach due to the NCAA infractions. So he hasn't had any games as a HC since that time.

Gary Pinkel at Missouri was number 3. He went 4-7, 5-7, then 8-5 for 17-19 his first 3 seasons. Overall he went 118-73 with a 61.80% winning percentage. He was also removed due to other circumstances that had nothing to do with his W/L percentage.

Kirk Ferentz at Iowa is number 4. He went 1-10, 3-9, and 7-5 his first 3 seasons for 11-24 overall after that really bad first season. He's went 168-106 at Iowa for a 61.30% winning percentage and has been there for 22 seasons.

Jim Harbaugh at Stanford was number 5 surprisingly. He went 4-8, 5-7, then 8-5 season 3 for 17-20 overall. He wound up 29-21 at Stanford for a 58.00% winning percentage. At Michigan, he has went 49-22 since for a 69.00% winning percentage. This makes him a very big exception to all the rules. But he wasn't fired from Stanford as he left on his own accord for the NFL and then returns to Michigan. Harbaugh also had taken over a putrid Stanford team that had went 1-11, 5-6, 4-7, 4-7, and 2-9 the 5 years prior to his arrival.

There were 5 other coaches who were below .500 their first 3 seasons that had a better than 50% winning percentage:

Dirk Koetter at Arizona State winds up 40-34 - 54.10%
Mike Leach at Washington State was 12-25 his first 3 seasons but in the 5 seasons after he made up the difference to come out 55-47 overall for a 53.90%
Tom O' Brein at NC State started 16-21 but wound up 40-35 with 53.30% winning percentage
Dennis Franchione at Texas A&M started 16-19 and finished 32-29 for 52.50% - he then went on to go 20-28 after he left A&M for 41.70%
Tom Allen at Indiana started 5-7, 5-7, and 8-5 and is currently at 24-22 and 52.20%

Pruitt is 17th on the list at 45.71% just below Dave Clawson at Wake Forest and Ron Prince at Kansas State and just above David Cutcliffe at Duke and Rich Brooks at Kentucky.

Most of the coaches on this list who left a school then went to another school did not get over 50% in wins after the fact. Actually, of the 50 only 8 had head coaching experience after the first job measured.

Of those 8, here's how they rank by winning percentage in their next stop:

Jim Harbaugh - 69%
Sonny Dykes - 62.90%
Charlie Strong - 56.80%
Rich Rodriguez - 55.10%
Dennis Franchione - 41.70%
Mike Leach - 36.40%
Steve Addazio - 25%
Randy Edsall - 16.66%

Of the 50 P5 coaches measured only 10 finish with over 50% at the school and those names are mentioned above.

Only one coach - David Cutcliffe - has more than 10 years of experience (13) with under a 50% winning percentage and has maintained his job. Of course, he coaches at Duke so it's not expected for them to do much better than they are currently doing already.

Just for fun and info the worst coaches statistically all had 4 years at their programs. Coming up at the very bottom of the barrel was David Beaty at Kansas who went 6-42 for a 12.50% winning percentage overall. Chris Ash at Rutgers went 8-32 for 20% and Ty Willingham at Washington was at 22.90%. The only other coach under 30% who survived 3 years was Tom Holmoe at California who went 16-39 for a 29.10% winning percentage.

Nearly every single coach ahead of Pruitt showed progress in W/L records from year 1 to year 3. Pruitt regressed from 8-5 to 3-7. If I had more time and energy I would measure the amount of blowout losses all of these coaches suffered in their first 3 years to see how Pruitt stacks up there. I have a feeling he would be near the very bottom of this list for 21+ point losses in 3 years.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet so you can see all of the other statistics that are involved in this research for yourself......



Not trying to just pile on but I really like statistics - always have. They tell a story that is hard to spin away from no matter how hard some may try.
Click to expand...

The one thing is see is that all those coaches won more in year three and had winning records in year three.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lifeisdeep
#12
#12
unfrozencvmanvol said:
OP said he went back to the early 90's in like the first line or two of his post. Beamer started coaching in the 80's.
Click to expand...
Ah, I see. Yeah, first year at Va Tech was '87.

But Beamer's first three seasons in the 90s were also below .500: 6-5, then 5-6, then 2-8-1. So I'd think he should've shown up on the OP's radar even so.

But okay.
 
  • Like
Reactions: unfrozencvmanvol
#13
#13
You just can’t argue around this. It essentially says that CJP has about a 10% chance of success.

Two of the guys you mention, Ferentz and Pinkel, has the benefit of low expectations as well. Not to mention they showed improvement rather than regressed. I think those two, along with maybe 3-4 others, are the only names on the list that anyone would consider to be even good coaches, much less great ones.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Seattle Hillbilly and lifeisdeep
#14
#14
Skippy95 said:
I think by some measure CJP has stabilized a few things for the next coach. This next season and recruiting class will be a tell all. JP better sign a top five class because it’s in his own back yard, and if he can’t do it someone else needs to get here that can recruit Tennessee.
Click to expand...

We would have to get to and win a NY6 bowl next season for us to have any shot at a top 5 recruiting class.
 
#16
#16
ftsandersvol said:
We would have to get to and win a NY6 bowl next season for us to have any shot at a top 5 recruiting class.
Click to expand...

Have you seen the talent in Tennessee next year? We should easily lock up a top 5 class if he signs 15 of the top 20 and pulls kids from bama like he always does. It would be a very butch esq class but it should happen
 
#19
#19
Tennessee is not going to hire a big time coach. Why is Bama in the final 4 every year? Because they go out and get the coaches they need. Plus they have Saban. Saban went and brought Kiffin in as OC. Then he brought in Sark. Now he probaly will bring in Bill O'Brian as OC.
 
#21
#21
BigOrangeTrain said:
While the stats definitely don’t support Pruitt ever being successful here, it can be done. I really hope he gets things back on track that way the next HC isn’t walking into the same mess he did.
Click to expand...

Nothing shows he is anything different than Dooley at this point. The longer he is kept, the more dire the situation will be for the next coach.

Recruiting is 10 - 20
Player development is lackluster
New assistants will cost more

Garbage headcoach only exasperating the situation at Tennessee.
 
  • Like
Reactions: volpass, preacherwebb, norriscraftbasser and 1 other person
#22
#22
VFL-82-JP said:
It's fairly amusing that you condemn Pruitt's chances of succeeding in year 4+ by saying there aren't a lot of other guys who batted below .500 in years 1-3 went on to succeed later....but then go on to name guys like Harbaugh (who tons of folks here thought was the cat's meow when Michigan first hired him), Briles, Leach, and Gundy (all of whom have been mentioned on wish lists to replace Pruitt).

There's irony in there, even if it is a little convoluted.


p.s. Why isn't Frank Beamer (Va Tech) on your list? 11-21-1 in his first three seasons there, I think. Certainly below .500. Ended up 238-121-2 there, all-time. You seem to have an incomplete list....
Click to expand...

Well, I said in my first sentence that I went back to the early 90s. And when Beamer started at Virginia Tech in 1987 they were an Independent until joining the Big East in 1991. I'm not saying I might not have missed one or two but I don't think this is an incomplete list by any means.

I can further breakdown those 4 coaches you mention there though if you'd like.

Harbaugh came into a horrible situation at Stanford. They had went 1-11, 5-6, 4-7, 4-7, and 2-9 the 5 years prior to his arrival. That is a record of 16-40 or 28.57% winning percentage over that stretch prior to his arrival. I think what he did was show significant improvement. He went 4-8 his first year but beat the #2 team in the country USC 24-23 and shocked the world in doing so. This USC team finishes 11-2 on the 2007 season and finishes #3 in the final AP poll. Year 2 they go 5-7. Year 3 the team jumps up to 8-5 and beats 3 top 25 teams. They lose the 5 games by a combined total of 32 points. Then in 2010 they finish 12-1 with their only loss to Oregon and finish #4 in the final AP poll.

I don't want Art Briles here but I don't think it can be argued that he wasn't a great head coach. Prior to his arrival at Baylor in 2008 it had been since 1995 since Baylor had a winning season. In the 5 years prior to Briles they went 3-9, 4-8, 5-6, 3-8, and 3-9 for a total of 18-40 or 31%. Briles progressed by going 4-8, 4-8, and 7-6. In his 4th year they went 10-3. At Baylor. Prior to that, their last 10 win season was 1980.

Mike Leach had success prior to Washington State. He is the biggest exception on this list because he came to WSU as an established coach. He never had a losing record at Tech and finished there 84-43 for a 66.1% winning percentage. Winning in Lubbock, then going to Pullman and winning there, the guy can coach. I was actually going to be perfectly fine with a Leach hire here in 2017. If nothing else we would have been fun to watch and I think Leach still has some left in the tank. I believe he'll uptick it at MSU and be pretty successful there.

Mike Gundy was barely under .500 in his first 3 years at OSU. He's proven to be a good to pretty good coach but never completely broke through that glass ceiling.

And most of the guys nearer the top of the list showed continuous upward trajectory and making bad teams better to good. Pruitt's team has regressed tremendously in 2020. That trend shows that you aren't going to make it. Most of these poor guys never got another head coaching gig at the D1 level after flaming out at these various schools.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VAVol85, lifeisdeep and VFL-82-JP
#23
#23
Good information and post. One thing that can't be forgotten regardless of how you feel is none of those coaches 3rd year was during covid19. You can hate or love Pruitt but this has an affect on this team as well as others.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VAVol85
#24
#24
VFL-82-JP said:
Ah, I see. Yeah, first year at Va Tech was '87.

But Beamer's first three seasons in the 90s were also below .500: 6-5, then 5-6, then 2-8-1. So I'd think he should've shown up on the OP's radar even so.

But okay.
Click to expand...
I know it's not P5 but Beamer coached awhile at Murray State before VT so he wasn't a first time head coach either, so a bit of a quirky comparison to Pruitt or a lot of the other names on the list.
 
  • Like
Reactions: VFL-82-JP and Alto1
#25
#25
Skippy95 said:
I think by some measure CJP has stabilized a few things for the next coach. This next season and recruiting class will be a tell all. JP better sign a top five class because it’s in his own back yard, and if he can’t do it someone else needs to get here that can recruit Tennessee.
Click to expand...
With his lack of development I would not bet on Pruitt signing a top 5 class anytime soon. He failed to sign the top 5 players in Tennessee this year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Skippy95
New Posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

Advertisement



Back
Top