Recruiting Forum Football Talk III

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#33,180
#33,180
UTK said:
Think it's beyond dumb to put yourself in a position to have to make a 2 point conversion to just force OT. If you don't want to play for OT, ya kick the PAT the first time then worry about going for 2 if you score again.
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That is a worse position to be in, due to having the same information, but later than sooner. Basic information/game theory...in game decisions, information is more valuable the sooner you can get it.

Or the math:
Assume a 2 pt conv has a 50% success rate
Assume an XP has a 100% conversion rate

If you take the sequence of
XP (100%) THEN
2-pt conversion (50%)
Your odds of winning are 50%.

Rather, if you take the sequence of 2-pt conversion, THEN (2nd decision based on the 1st outcome), your odds of winning are 62.5%.

If you make the first 2-pointer (50%) then you kick the XP for the win on the 2nd td. If you miss the first 2-pointer, then you go for 2 again on the 2nd td, which, if made, then leads to a 50% chance of winning in OT (.5 * .5 * .5 = 12.5%). 25% of the time you lose outright in regulation by failing back to back conversions. 62.5% chance of winning in total. Much better than 50%.
 
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#33,182
#33,182
m1al said:
I just have this feeling that with all the mess hitting that Freeze might be just the guy. Very high chance he would take the job and it could be redemption for both, Tennessee and him.. He would definitely jack the fan base up..
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In my hissy fit, blowup earlier today, I missed your profile pic. Classic.
 
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#33,188
#33,188
yabo said:
Insider status - confirmed
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tenor.gif
 
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#33,191
#33,191
Devo182 said:
That is a worse position to be in, due to having the same information, but later than sooner. Basic information/game theory...in game decisions, information is more valuable the sooner you can get it.

Or the math:
Assume a 2 pt conv has a 50% success rate
Assume an XP has a 100% conversion rate

If you take the sequence of
XP (100%) THEN
2-pt conversion (50%)
Your odds of winning are 50%.

Rather, if you take the sequence of 2-pt conversion, THEN (2nd decision based on the 1st outcome), your odds of winning are 62.5%.

If you make the first 2-pointer (50%) then you kick the XP for the win on the 2nd td. If you miss the first 2-pointer, then you go for 2 again on the 2nd td, which, if made, then leads to a 50% chance of winning in OT (.5 * .5 * .5 = 12.5%). 25% of the time you lose outright in regulation by failing back to back conversions. 62.5% chance of winning in total. Much better than 50%.
Click to expand...

Overthinking lmao
 
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