Tom Herman is not coming back at Texas. He has lost the support of every potential power base in the administration, the BMD's, and the players. The guy is supposedly a real jerk and nobody likes him. There was a controversy this summer over the players not wanting to sing The Eyes of Texas after games due to what they perceived to be racist origins of the song, and while it was a tricky situation for a coach, he managed to alienate a lot of the BMD's in the process. After the OU loss this year (the worst OU team since John Blake roamed the sidelines in the 90's), Sam Ehlinger was out on the field with his Hook 'em sign in the air standing all by himself, and Herman was lucky he didn't get fired that weekend. He was given an ultimatum to win the conference or else, and since they lost to ISU on Friday, two team captains have opted out for the rest of the season. Now there are reports of unspecified "illnesses" among players causing them to miss practice, although no confirmed positive Covid cases. He's done.
He's basically Butch Jones in 2016 - returned a ton of talent and a productive senior QB in a league that was ripe for the taking due to other programs being down. He lost to TCU for the 3rd time in 4 games, and OU for the 4th time in 5. He's also now 2-2 against Iowa State. Recruiting has flatlined since August and the #1 player for 2022, a QB people were comparing to Trevor Lawrence has decommitted. Supposedly all of the factions of BMD's are aligned on getting rid of Herman and going after Urban Meyer in a way that they haven't been in living memory. By contrast, when Mack Brown was on the way out, the Dallas donors were spearheading the charge to get Saban hired, supposedly had him on the line, but the Houston faction stepped in and screwed things up with the administration, letting Mack coach through the bowl game and Saban lost interest. Now all the power brokers are pulling in the same direction, at least until Meyer says no, at which point they will probably descend back in to factionalism with their favorite candidates.
I do think Herman would be an improvement over Pruitt, he was over Charlie Strong at Texas, but perhaps only in a way that Butch was an improvement over Dooley. He's got a system and a "culture" he wants to instill, and it pays early dividends, but as the league adjusts to it, he has no counter. He thinks he's got this infallible system, and when it doesn't work, it's the players fault for not executing properly. This cover really sums him up, and "MENSA" has become his derisive nickname.
He plays every game close, 27 games over the last 4 years decided by one score, and Texas is 14-13 in those games. He doesn't get blown out, but other than cupcakes, he doesn't blow anyone out. So we would likely be respectable against the UGA's, Bama's and UF's of the world, but we'd also be playing down to the wire with Kentucky, Mizzou, and SC every year as well. His teams are highly penalized as well, they've gotten worse every year under him, which is probably why their games are so close against lesser opponents:
In 2017, Texas finished No. 112 nationally in penalty yards per game and 115h in total penalty yardage. The following year, the Horns ranked No. 98 in penalty yards per game, but 116th in total penalty yardage. In 2019, Texas regressed to 120th in penalty yards per game and 119th in total penalty yardage. This year, Herman’s squad ranks 70th out of 77 teams in penalty yards per game.
Texas resorting to punitive measures in effort to reduce penalties
All that having been said, barring Harrison Bailey leading us to an upset of Florida on Saturday, the program may need to make a move just to avoid total implosion, and Herman should be available by this time next week.
Gary Patterson isn't coming, they've built a statue of him outside the stadium, he's recording country music albums, and the fanbase is happy as long as they make it to the Cheezit Bowl and beat Baylor and SMU. He's retiring in Fort Worth.
