2020 Presidential Race

#51,033
#51,033
VolnJC said:
Sorry been busy. Did Carlos or EL post the latest polls that showed Trump leading in Arizona and Michigan?
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There is one poll (ABC/Washington Post) on Real Clear Politics which shows Trump with a one point lead in Arizona (49% to 48%). The Real Clear Politics Average of the most recent 7 polls in Arizona shows Biden with a 3.2% lead (48.3% to 45.1%) but ABC/Washington Post is a solid poll... so, if you are desperate for some good news, you have some.

Michigan is another story, however. The only recent poll on Real Clear Politics which shows Trump with a lead in Michigan, is a Republican propaganda poll called Trafalgar. They have Trump with a one point lead (47% to 46%) but that poll is dubious. The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden with a 5.2% lead in Michigan (48.5% to 43.3%). That is of the 6 most recent polls.
 
#51,034
#51,034
Rifleman said:
Here's the latest:

View attachment 308947

View attachment 308950

Another note: Trafalgar's prior Michigan polling found larger leads for Trump than this one.
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Take note of the (R)* next to Trafalgar. That designates that it is a poll sponsored by a party... in this case, the Republican Party. That is not a legit survey. I don't know why RCP includes them. They shouldn't.
 
#51,036
#51,036
BowlBrother85 said:
Take note of the (R)* next to Trafalgar. That designates that it is a poll sponsored by a party... in this case, the Republican Party. That is not a legit survey. I don't know why RCP includes them. They shouldn't.
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They include Dem polls too, so they cancel out, and I have noticed over the years that even these partisan polls will have readable trendlines until about a week out. Trafalgar sees a stable race with a slight trend toward Biden like the rest, just with Trump in a much better position.

At that point, they will either try to fit their result to the rest of the polling to save face for the future or they will go all in and pop a really crazy outlier poll.
 
#51,037
#51,037
Rifleman said:
They include Dem polls too, so they cancel out, and I have noticed over the years that even these partisan polls will have readable trendlines until about a week out.

At that point, they will either try to fit their result to the rest of the polling to save face for the future or they will go all in and pop a really crazy outlier poll.
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They don't include any polls paid for by the Democratic Party.
 
#51,038
#51,038
BowlBrother85 said:
They don't include any polls paid for by the Democratic Party.
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Sorry, but both aggregates I posted above have polls from the Democratic outfit Change Research. They are supposedly conducting this for CNBC, but the poll has giant margins of error for individual states. They should include them all and simply note the affiliations as they have done.
 
#51,041
#51,041
BowlBrother85 said:
That poll isn't paid for by the Democratic Party. They have been flagged for Democratic Party bias but that is not the same thing as what you have with Trafalgar.
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You don't have to be a muckraker to figure out that these cats are absolutely just as biased as the folks at Trafalgar, and if anything their poll is worse than Trafalgar's for swing states because of the high margin of error.

Every good bit of data I can find says Arizona will be one of the last states to certify their electors in a closing race. If Biden wins it quick, then he probably also won Florida so it won't be crucial to his victory.
 
#51,042
#51,042
BigOrangeD said:
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That moment when you desperately need to win pro-Democracy hispanics in Florida and you say, "Get rid of the ballots!"

I've been fairly bullish on a Trump second term despite my concerns about his horrible job performance, but that was simply a catastrophic unforced error.
 
#51,049
#51,049
VolnJC said:
Anyone that is left denying that Obama and Biden.. spied on a rival campaign, foreign allies, and American citizens are lost and no longer reachable...best we can do is mock and use them as examples for the earlier stages of TDSers
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If you can deny that Donald Trump withheld military aid to an ally (the Ukraine), in exchange for investigating a rival (Joe Biden and his son), then why can't we deny these things?
 
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