I think Trump has been his own worst enemy with lack of a clear message.
To me there's two basic effective strategies: Senegal or Sweden. I think we could have either done nothing (but demand we protect senior care facilities) or we could have encouraged the Governors to push mask mandates (but not shut down).
At various times Trump has said
It's 5x worse than the flu
It'll disappear
Chastised mask wearing
Call masks wearing Patriotic
Talked down shut-downs
Chastised Ga Gov for not having a longer shut down
Put together a task force and had daily briefings
Discredited his task force
Look, I know the US is different in the fact the have 50 governors to run their individual states, but he's got to have some infulence as the leader of the free world, right?
I think Biden's a boob and I still think there's a 50/50 chance Trump gets reelected but he's had a string of self inflicted wounds throughout the pandemic. Just pick a plan (even if that plan is nothing) and be honest and consistent.