Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#73,726
#73,726
volinbham said:
the challenge will be the science (what metrics do you use to set a threshold where it's a problem) vs the negative PR/fear for shutting down
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Uh there’s no science involved chief. Once the deadly grandma murderin virus has claimed a victim at your school you send everyone home and burn it to the ground. This is how rational and reasonable people approach the problem.
 
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#73,727
#73,727
volinbham said:
the challenge will be the science (what metrics do you use to set a threshold where it's a problem) vs the negative PR/fear for shutting down
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My hope is that they are as brave in remaining open as they were in opening on time. Only school in the county to do so and so many are cheering for failure already
 
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#73,728
#73,728
DancingOutlaw said:
Uh there’s no science involved chief. Once the deadly grandma murderin virus has claimed a victim at your school you send everyone home and burn it to the ground. This is how rational and reasonable people approach the problem.
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you are correct - not sure what I was thinking
 
#73,729
#73,729
volinbham said:
NYTimes had a story today about UA System holding in person classes eventhough my school (UAB) has created an amazingly thorough testing and social distancing system. Predictably, the tone of the story was negative.
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Took my daughter back down to Tuscaloosa this week. Major networks down there interviewing students on the strip as we drove by. I can only imagine how they’re going to cut, splice and edit those interviews. I hope it doesn’t happen, but I have a feeling they’ll call it all off and send students home again with the slightest spike.
 
#73,730
#73,730
Vol737 said:
Took my daughter back down to Tuscaloosa this week. Major networks down there interviewing students on the strip as we drove by. I can only imagine how they’re going to cut, splice and edit those interviews. I hope it doesn’t happen, but I have a feeling they’ll call it all off and send students home again with the slightest spike.
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If they close the campus they can't have football - they ain't closing until they have no other choice.

Hope she stays safe 737
 
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#73,734
#73,734
volinbham said:
I'm just speculating. The optics of having football when you say it isn't safe to have students on campus is pretty bad.
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I can see that. I think some schools that have gone virtual are having some practice, but its things like field drills with no contact practices and no group weight training.
 
#73,736
#73,736
BeardedVol said:
Christ on a pogostick...did you stop attending math classes at the same time that you stopped your scientific education? Ok, quick math class here we go.

*Disclaimer, all CDC influenza estimates are, are just that, estimates, but for the sake of argument, we are going to assume they are 100 fact.*

2018-2019 Seasonal Influenza Numbers, per the CDC: 35,500,000 cases 34,200 deaths.

(Total Deaths)/(Total Infected)*100=CFR (case fatality rate)

2018-2019 Influenza (34,000/35,500,000) * 100= .1

So the CFR for seasonal influenza in the US, is .1%

Still with me?

Now let's use the power of algebra to work backwards with the data we have for Covid 19.

Current Deaths: 174,631
CFR: Let's go with the best case estimate that I've seen which is .7%

So how do we find how many total infections that we need to keep a .7% CFR given our Current Deaths?

X=Unknown Total Infections

(174,631/X) *100 = .7
174,63100/X=.7
17463100=.7X
24,947,286=X

So to maintain a .7% mortality rate given the current number of deaths, we need roughly 25,000,000 infections.

Now here's the question, have we already had 20,000,000 untested, unnoticed Covid 19 infections? I don't know, but I'd say it's unlikely given what we know about covid 19 and the general unhealthiness of the American public.

Back to @Halph66 's assertion that H1N1 was worse, we only saw ~12,000 deaths out of ~60,000,000 estimated cases. H1N1 is not worse than Covid 19 in terms of mortality, not even under the best case scenarios for Covid 19. We don't have enough people in the United States at this point, even if 100% of the population were to get infected, to get a CFR of ~.02% which is what H1N1 ended with.
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Viruses don't do algebra solving for x. They come, they peak, they recede. The models were wrong. It's pretty much done if we would let it be so.
 
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#73,737
#73,737
lawgator1 said:
Thread can be retired.

Mypillow dude says he heard a poison plant cures the virus and Trump is all over it.

You know, I suppose that if you poisoned yourself, or shot yourself, in a sense that cures the virus and keeps it from spreading.
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Thread can be retired, the virus is done.
 
#73,739
#73,739
The city of Los Angeles shut off utility service at a Hollywood Hills home that hosted several large parties, violating public health orders to prevent the spread of Covid-19.

"Despite several warnings, this house has turned into a nightclub in the hills, hosting large gatherings in flagrant violation of our public health orders," Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said in a news release. "The City has now disconnected utilities at this home to stop these parties that endanger our community."

Health experts and local officials have warned that a primary contributor to the spread of the virus is disregard for health guidelines, including hand washing, wearing masks, social distancing and avoiding large crowds. Large social events, including weddings and birthday parties, have been the starting points of several outbreaks.
 
#73,740
#73,740
MontyPython said:
The city of Los Angeles shut off utility service at a Hollywood Hills home that hosted several large parties, violating public health orders to prevent the spread of Covid-19.

"Despite several warnings, this house has turned into a nightclub in the hills, hosting large gatherings in flagrant violation of our public health orders," Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said in a news release. "The City has now disconnected utilities at this home to stop these parties that endanger our community."

Health experts and local officials have warned that a primary contributor to the spread of the virus is disregard for health guidelines, including hand washing, wearing masks, social distancing and avoiding large crowds. Large social events, including weddings and birthday parties, have been the starting points of several outbreaks.
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Good, good! Keep it up and Trump might actually swing California.
 
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#73,741
#73,741
kiddiedoc said:
Good, good! Keep it up and Trump might actually swing California.
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images
 
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