Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#73,551
#73,551
rjd970 said:
I'm on day 2 of virtual schooling for my kid and it is chaos and I'm about to throw my kid's school computer out of the window. There has been frustration, tears, and breakdowns. I only have 9 more weeks of this, minimum.

The fear peddlers and Karen's can go to hell. Every last one of you. This is ridiculous.
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I am kind of struggling to see how this is going to work. I am telecommuting full time now, my wife is working part time. My kid is 6 so she hasn't quite mastered opening emails, clicking on video links, pausing, etc. Which means one of us has to shepherd her through this stuff in addition to doing our jobs and dealing with two other kids. I don't see how in the world this would work if you were a single parent with a job you can't do online. I know a lot of people were pissed that the kids are going to school two days a week but it's mostly stay at home moms and telecommuters doing the complaining. If you're a first responder, skilled trade, cook, etc. you're getting screwed pretty good right now and so is your kid. I will be eagerly watching how the school board frames this little experiment. If they claim this is as good or better than the standard system then we need to start laying off a pile of teachers and admin and selling some county property.
 
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#73,552
#73,552
DancingOutlaw said:
I am kind of struggling to see how this is going to work. I am telecommuting full time now, my wife is working part time. My kid is 6 so she hasn't quite mastered opening emails, clicking on video links, pausing, etc. Which means one of us has to shepherd her through this stuff in addition to doing our jobs and dealing with two other kids. I don't see how in the world this would work if you were a single parent with a job you can't do online. I know a lot of people were pissed that the kids are going to school two days a week but it's mostly stay at home moms and telecommuters doing the complaining. If you're a first responder, skilled trade, cook, etc. you're getting screwed pretty good right now and so is your kid. I will be eagerly watching how the school board frames this little experiment. If they claim this is as good or better than the standard system then we need to start laying off a pile of teachers and admin and selling some county property.
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100%. Every bit of this.
 
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#73,553
#73,553
BeardedVol said:
There's also compelling evidence that the deaths are currently under-counted.

Both points of which are moot in terms of @Halph66 's original assertion that we didn't "freak out" over H1n1, with it's .02% CFR, when the best CFR we can manage with Covid 19 is .05%, and that is literally if our deaths stop today, and we find out that all ~328,000,000 Americans are actually infected.
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I'm not sure who didn't "freak out" about H1N1... Hospitals, ERs, and private clinics were overrun with patients, there were tens of thousands of deaths, we scrambled for a vaccine, Tamiflu became almost impossible to find, and schools closed for a couple weeks in most areas due to absenteeism and teacher shortages. It was rough.

What we didn't do is resort to an unprecedented and completely unproven shutdown of the country. We also did not abandon science and start recommending things that we have known for decades do not rid communities of respiratory viruses.

Just so I understand your motives here, do you mind sharing your profession or expertise?
 
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#73,554
#73,554
DancingOutlaw said:
I am kind of struggling to see how this is going to work. I am telecommuting full time now, my wife is working part time. My kid is 6 so she hasn't quite mastered opening emails, clicking on video links, pausing, etc. Which means one of us has to shepherd her through this stuff in addition to doing our jobs and dealing with two other kids. I don't see how in the world this would work if you were a single parent with a job you can't do online. I know a lot of people were pissed that the kids are going to school two days a week but it's mostly stay at home moms and telecommuters doing the complaining. If you're a first responder, skilled trade, cook, etc. you're getting screwed pretty good right now and so is your kid. I will be eagerly watching how the school board frames this little experiment. If they claim this is as good or better than the standard system then we need to start laying off a pile of teachers and admin and selling some county property.
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It's already been clearly demonstrated that "virtual learning" is inferior in a number of ways.
 
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#73,556
#73,556
kiddiedoc said:
I'm not sure who didn't "freak out" about H1N1... Hospitals, ERs, and private clinics were overrun with patients, there were tens of thousands of deaths, we scrambled for a vaccine, Tamiflu became almost impossible to find, and schools closed for a couple weeks in most areas due to absenteeism and teacher shortages. It was rough.

What we didn't do is resort to an unprecedented and completely unproven shutdown of the country. We also did not abandon science and start recommending things that we have known for decades do not rid communities of respiratory viruses.

Just so I understand your motives here, do you mind sharing your profession or expertise?
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Just arguing against his poorly informed logic.

I don't work in the medical field, but I did spend a little over a decade in statistical computing and data modeling before moving from development into IT systems engineering.
 
#73,558
#73,558
kiddiedoc said:
It's already been clearly demonstrated that "virtual learning" is inferior in a number of ways.
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My kid's only assignment on Friday was to watch a teacher read a book for 10 minutes and then color a drawing. I told my wife I don't remember a lot about first grade but surely there was more to it than that. Today she got all her work done in around 4 hours, that includes eating lunch and coloring every single worksheet(which is her choice, not assigned). This is making me think about a couple times at work where we had people out on medical leave and you had to cover their job and you figure out after 3 days this person doesn't do ****. Two of us have split up your responsibilities and it's taking each of us 5 hours a week.
 
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#73,561
#73,561
kiddiedoc said:
It's already been clearly demonstrated that "virtual learning" is inferior in a number of ways.
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I’m an early childhood mentor-coach (I train early childhood teachers and implement curriculum) and I’ve been involved in my place of works implementation of our virtual learning and I can tell you that you’re completely right. What we are doing sucks, flat out. It’s not because we aren’t trying, we are doing everything in our power, but the virtual learning just is not anywhere near in person, especially in early childhood.
 
#73,564
#73,564
And cases dropped another 20% this Tuesday versus previous Tuesday.

The attempt to stir up tangential concerns is already in overdrive and will continue. Schools will be the media focus for another few weeks.
 
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#73,565
#73,565
Eastknox865 said:
I'm am no way an expert on politics or covid19. But can someone explain to me why people are saying this is political. The entire world is dealing with this virus not just the United States.
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Because some are utilizing inaccurate numbers to justify ridiculous things that make no sense in the name of virtual signaling and others are capitalizing on an issue for political reasons
 
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#73,566
#73,566
Rasputin_Vol said:
Meanwhile in New Zealand, after just coming out of one of the longest lockdowns on the planet, New Zealand is going right back on lockdown after a spike in cases. Proving that lockdowns don't work.
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Curves more like a spring.
 
#73,569
#73,569
BeardedVol said:
Christ on a pogostick...did you stop attending math classes at the same time that you stopped your scientific education? Ok, quick math class here we go.

*Disclaimer, all CDC influenza estimates are, are just that, estimates, but for the sake of argument, we are going to assume they are 100 fact.*

2018-2019 Seasonal Influenza Numbers, per the CDC: 35,500,000 cases 34,200 deaths.

(Total Deaths)/(Total Infected)*100=CFR (case fatality rate)

2018-2019 Influenza (34,000/35,500,000) * 100= .1

So the CFR for seasonal influenza in the US, is .1%

Still with me?

Now let's use the power of algebra to work backwards with the data we have for Covid 19.

Current Deaths: 174,631
CFR: Let's go with the best case estimate that I've seen which is .7%

So how do we find how many total infections that we need to keep a .7% CFR given our Current Deaths?

X=Unknown Total Infections

(174,631/X) *100 = .7
174,63100/X=.7
17463100=.7X
24,947,286=X

So to maintain a .7% mortality rate given the current number of deaths, we need roughly 25,000,000 infections.

Now here's the question, have we already had 20,000,000 untested, unnoticed Covid 19 infections? I don't know, but I'd say it's unlikely given what we know about covid 19 and the general unhealthiness of the American public.

Back to @Halph66 's assertion that H1N1 was worse, we only saw ~12,000 deaths out of ~60,000,000 estimated cases. H1N1 is not worse than Covid 19 in terms of mortality, not even under the best case scenarios for Covid 19. We don't have enough people in the United States at this point, even if 100% of the population were to get infected, to get a CFR of ~.02% which is what H1N1 ended with.
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0.7% is literally the high end of projected mortality rate for covid. It is probably about 0.5%.

I doubt you get it.
 
#73,570
#73,570
allvol123 said:
0.7% is literally the high end of projected mortality rate for covid. It is probably about 0.5%.

I doubt you get it.
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It's midway given that current estimates sit between .5 and 1.2%

In the context of the original post, still significantly higher than the . 02% CFR of H1N1 that @Halph66 was trying to compare Covid 19 to.

I've already shown you the math, that even if every single American were to become infected with Covid 19, and our deaths stopped today at their current number, we'd still be at .05% CFR.

It's not going to be that low in the end, because we both know that that the entire population is not going to get infected, and that people will not stop dying from it.
 
#73,571
#73,571
LouderVol said:
My math is fine. You stop understanding english?

I stated that if you used the Covid methodology you get much higher flu numbers.

@TennTradition care to weigh in on this, again?

We got another one who doesnt understand what he is actually saying.

Here is the CDC link. Update: Influenza Activity in the United States During the 2018–19 ....

1,145,555 tests to the CDC.
177,039 tested positive. That's it. 180k. Oh yeah that's a 15% positive rate. Covid hovering around 5?
I cant find the actual reported death numbers. I know I have seen a 4k number of actual deaths, maybe Tenn has that info?
Just using 4 since I cant back it up better is 2.2%.
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Right - and that isn’t to argue that the 3% or whatever you get that way (in my phone so I can’t easily pull up those files) is the right IFR for flu. It absolutely isn’t. But likewise, the CFR that was thrown around for CV for so long (2-3%) was also very flawed. We know we are missing many many cases. And while we may also be missing some deaths - the missed cases far outweighs it.

The gap between the calculated CFR and modeled sFR for flu is likely larger than the gap between the CFR and the iFR for CV because we are recording more CV tests and have a higher capture rate. But it still a nice illustration of the flaws of extending CFRs to talk about mortality.

I agree with bearded that H1N1 had an incredibly low fatality rate and there is no way CV ends up nearly that low.
 
#73,572
#73,572
Question 1: With all of the coronavirus hype, I never heard anything about a seasonal flu outbreak that we usually get. Did we have a seasonal influenza outbreak last winter?

Question 2: Will we have a seasonal influenza virus this year?
 
#73,573
#73,573
Rasputin_Vol said:
Question 1: With all of the coronavirus hype, I never heard anything about a seasonal flu outbreak that we usually get. Did we have a seasonal influenza outbreak last winter?

Question 2: Will we have a seasonal influenza virus this year?
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We were having a seasonal flu but the March quarantines largely killed the season (though it usually tapers off not long after that anyway).

We’ll have one this winter as well - magnitude will depend on how much social activity we are having.
 
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