Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

[Rishvol]

I would vote Chatta for president. The first ever data-based president.

Without a second thought

 

[Orangeburst]

View attachment 295999

I thought Pi was 3.14......

 

[SSVol]

The Re reported yesterday by the university of Tennessee dashboard was 1.06 and the R0 widely reported at the beginning of the pandemic was 2.5. If we plug in those values and solve for Pi for the state of Tennessee we get 0.576. (1.06/2.5) = (1 – Pi). 0.424 = (1 – Pi). Pi = 0.576.

The number of actual cases according to the CDC is far more than the number of reported cases, around 10 times more according to the CDC’s best estimate.

The general estimate at the start of the pandemic was we would have to get to around 60% immunity in the community for the virus to die off due to herd immunity. If the data being reported is anywhere in the vicinity we could be at 57.6% immunity in the state as of yesterday.

Once Re gets below 1.00 the number of new cases will be declining as the number of active cases which spawn new infections will also be declining.

On July 16th, I suggested we probably needed to get to around 115k reported cases in the state to hit our HIT (herd immunity threshold). There’s a technical glitch at the state level in today’s report but they do provide the total number of known cases as of today and it’s at 99,044.

My estimate was a best guess at the time but we’re only 16k away from the number so I still think in the next few days Re will likely go below 1.00 for the state. If so, no one should expect the virus to die out overnight but it will start to decline fairly rapidly as it will have difficulty finding new hosts until there are very few prospects left.

Lastly, this is a new virus and while our professionals and scientists know a thing or two about viruses in general, they need specific data to know everything there is to know about any new virus. In the beginning of something like this and for some time everyone, including the best minds we have, will be operating to some degree in the “fog of war”.

My big concern with our data right now continues to be that with the various “artificial” means we’re undertaking to slow the spread of the virus and with certain estimates that have been provided by those who should know best the conclusions one might draw from that data and the underlying assumptions could potentially turn out to be quite erroneous.

Note: I am not a doctor, nor am I a scientist. By profession, prior to my retirement, I was a project controls engineer, which means I collect and analyze data. More importantly perhaps, over the course of my life, I’ve stayed at a Holiday Inn Express on multiple occasions. TIFWIW.

Assuming R0 is 2.5 and confirmed cases are about 10% of actual, don't we need more like 400k cases to get to HIT?

 

[franklinpence]

The Re reported yesterday by the university of Tennessee dashboard was 1.06 and the R0 widely reported at the beginning of the pandemic was 2.5. If we plug in those values and solve for Pi for the state of Tennessee we get 0.576. (1.06/2.5) = (1 – Pi). 0.424 = (1 – Pi). Pi = 0.576.

The number of actual cases according to the CDC is far more than the number of reported cases, around 10 times more according to the CDC’s best estimate.

The general estimate at the start of the pandemic was we would have to get to around 60% immunity in the community for the virus to die off due to herd immunity. If the data being reported is anywhere in the vicinity we could be at 57.6% immunity in the state as of yesterday.

Once Re gets below 1.00 the number of new cases will be declining as the number of active cases which spawn new infections will also be declining.

On July 16th, I suggested we probably needed to get to around 115k reported cases in the state to hit our HIT (herd immunity threshold). There’s a technical glitch at the state level in today’s report but they do provide the total number of known cases as of today and it’s at 99,044.

My estimate was a best guess at the time but we’re only 16k away from the number so I still think in the next few days Re will likely go below 1.00 for the state. If so, no one should expect the virus to die out overnight but it will start to decline fairly rapidly as it will have difficulty finding new hosts until there are very few prospects left.

Lastly, this is a new virus and while our professionals and scientists know a thing or two about viruses in general, they need specific data to know everything there is to know about any new virus. In the beginning of something like this and for some time everyone, including the best minds we have, will be operating to some degree in the “fog of war”.

My big concern with our data right now continues to be that with the various “artificial” means we’re undertaking to slow the spread of the virus and with certain estimates that have been provided by those who should know best the conclusions one might draw from that data and the underlying assumptions could potentially turn out to be quite erroneous.

Note: I am not a doctor, nor am I a scientist. By profession, prior to my retirement, I was a project controls engineer, which means I collect and analyze data. More importantly perhaps, over the course of my life, I’ve stayed at a Holiday Inn Express on multiple occasions. TIFWIW.

Assuming R0 is 2.5 and confirmed cases are about 10% of actual, don't we need more like 400k cases to get to HIT?

Don’t think I’m not taking notes on some of these posts to impress others. Reminded me of this comic.

Five Word Jargon

 

[KPT_VFL]

If they play a shortened schedule does 5 wins get you a bowl game? It’s almost punishing the SEC. you could realistically have teams in the SEC win only 4-5 games and say like us play Bama, UGA, Florida, Vandy, UK, Arkansas, Mizzou, USCjr and another SEC team plus Oklahoma as our OOC game. Anyway you spin it that is a brutal schedule. That’s 5 games we SHOULD win but you know on any given day you can get beat in the SEC. other conferences would have much easier routes to bowl games plus kind sucks we play Oklahoma while a rival may not have a marquee game ooc this year and get to schedule ETSU etc. as their ooc game.

 

[cHiZzLeVOL]

I would vote Chatta for president. The first ever data-based president.

I’m about to vote him for investing for me....

 

[ChattaTNVol]

Assuming R0 is 2.5 and confirmed cases are about 10% of actual, don't we need more like 400k cases to get to HIT?

Yeah, I pointed that out in my July 16th post but since then as new data has become available and the "experts" have a better grasp of this new virus the percentages projected to achieve HIT have been declining to below 50% and even for some regions down to 20% and lower. The formulas that I've shared are established formulas in the fields of science and health but as I have noted both on July 16 and again today I'm unsure how our response to the virus is artificially influencing the projections. There is no question that if Re goes below 1.00 then the virus can be said to be dying out however given the means we are employing to achieve that Re I suspect we could be vulnerable to something like a counter offensive or outbreaks continuing to pop up here and there across the country. To me that would suggest that the Re formula I shared today for calculating the existing population immunity may be being compromised by the things we are doing to slow the spread of the virus. Given that concern I am sort of hinging my optimism on the fact that very reputable scientists and health care professionals have been lowering their estimates for achieving HIT. And so with all those weasel words to explain my uncertainty I'm left with trusting Re with the stipulation that we keep in place the artificial means that we are now employing to slow the spread for sometime after we get out of the woods otherwise as you point out Re may become worthless and we would default back to R0. jmo.

 

[VOLSONLY]

My sister contracted Covid last week. Had mild symptoms and not thought to be a bad case. My dad (after also preaching about the VitD and other nutrients that supposedly help and forcing my sister and mom to take them supplementally) came down with it a few days later. My dad's cough has worsened but no fever. My sister is currently in the ER (prayers appreciated). High fever, possible pneumonia. Needed IVs and antibiotics. Her blood oxygen level was extremely low and her toes were purple. She's 26.

My mom hasn't contracted it. She's a cancer survivor, diabetic and has lymphedema. I'm extremely concerned for her.

Sorry to hear man, praying for a speedy recovery

 

[drvenner]

My sister contracted Covid last week. Had mild symptoms and not thought to be a bad case. My dad (after also preaching about the VitD and other nutrients that supposedly help and forcing my sister and mom to take them supplementally) came down with it a few days later. My dad's cough has worsened but no fever. My sister is currently in the ER (prayers appreciated). High fever, possible pneumonia. Needed IVs and antibiotics. Her blood oxygen level was extremely low and her toes were purple. She's 26.

My mom hasn't contracted it. She's a cancer survivor, diabetic and has lymphedema. I'm extremely concerned for her.

All the prayers, Brother.

 

[butchna]

Any chance he is an immediate impact guy without Gooden? Is he projected at NT or SDE?

DE with more snaps now that Gooden is a no go...still 3 deep at best.

 

[SSVol]

Yeah, I pointed that out in my July 16th post but since then as new data has become available and the "experts" have a better grasp of this new virus the percentages projected to achieve HIT have been declining to below 50% and even for some regions down to 20% and lower. The formulas that I've shared are established formulas in the fields of science and health but as I have noted both on July 16 and again today I'm unsure how our response to the virus is artificially influencing the projections. There is no question that if Re goes below 1.00 then the virus can be said to be dying out however given the means we are employing to achieve that Re I suspect we could be vulnerable to something like a counter offensive or outbreaks continuing to pop up here and there across the country. To me that would suggest that the Re formula I shared today for calculating the existing population immunity may be being compromised by the things we are doing to slow the spread of the virus. Given that concern I am sort of hinging my optimism on the fact that very reputable scientists and health care professionals have been lowering their estimates for achieving HIT. And so with all those weasel words to explain my uncertainty I'm left with trusting Re with the stipulation that we keep in place the artificial means that we are now employing to slow the spread for sometime after we get out of the woods otherwise as you point out Re may become worthless and we would default back to R0. jmo.

Personal opinion is that most are underestimating the effect of mitigation efforts and behavioral changes on Re. The good news is that it is helping. The bad news is that it is artificial.

 

[ChattaTNVol]

Personal opinion is that most are underestimating the effect of mitigation efforts and behavioral changes on Re. The good news is that it is helping. The bad news is that it is artificial.

I agree with the first two parts of what you said. I’m sort of thinking about it like this. Re is a performance measure of the collective efforts we are taking to actively KILL the virus. It’s a measure of our success in that effort. If we win we will kill the virus before it can do its maximum damage on our population. If we fail (R0) then the virus wins and ends up killing a lot more of our population than it would have if we had been successfully fighting back. jmo.

 

[Devo182]

Personal opinion is that most are underestimating the effect of mitigation efforts and behavioral changes on Re. The good news is that it is helping. The bad news is that it is artificial.

Sorry, haven't been following all this R0, Re talk.

Is Re just daily growth rate (of any amount), despite the volume/population? If it is a small overall percentage of population that booms, how does that inform us overall infected% or hitting some threshold of herd immunity?

Michigan boomed early, receded quickly (Re < 1.0 during a period) and it had nothing to do with hitting herd immunity.

I'm also wondering, rhetorically mostly, what total actual cases now look like vs reported. Very early reports estimated ~10x (all the way up to 50x by a pretty poorly done internet study). With much improved testing, I wonder what it is now. Logically, it would seem to drop with more testing...not that we had a definitive multiplier to begin with ofc...

 

[SSVol]

Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but Re is just daily growth rate (of any amount), despite the volume/population, right? If it is a small overall percentage of population that booms (and is mitigated like you said), how does that inform us overall infected% or hitting some threshold of herd immunity?

Michigan boomed early, receded quickly (Re < 1.0) and it had nothing to do with hitting herd immunity.

Also wondering what total actual cases now look like vs reported. Very early reports estimated ~10x (all the way uo to 50x by a pretty bogus internet study). With much improved testing, I wonder now what it is. Logically it would seem to have dropped with more testing...not that we had a definite number to begin with ofc...

That's the point. Re is what we observe, and includes the effects of mitigation and behavior, but doesn't really speak to R0. There are some experts who believe that R0 is much lower than initially estimated, and there are definitely some data points that support that, but my opinion is that the rosiest of those are significantly underestimating mitigation and behavior.

 

[cHiZzLeVOL]

Buncha dang nerds up in here.....

 

[SSVol]

Sorry, haven't been following all this R0, Re talk.

Is Re just daily growth rate (of any amount), despite the volume/population, right? If it is a small overall percentage of population that booms, how does that inform us overall infected% or hitting some threshold of herd immunity?

Michigan boomed early, receded quickly (Re < 1.0 during a period) and it had nothing to do with hitting herd immunity.

I'm also wondering, rhetorically mostly, what total actual cases now look like vs reported. Very early reports estimated ~10x (all the way uo to 50x by a pretty bogus internet study). With much improved testing, I wonder now what it is. Logically it would seem to have dropped with more testing...not that we had a definite number to begin with ofc...

I believe cases are probably understated by 10x in some areas. I'm inclined to think that Tennessee is lower than that. Our low hospitalization and mortality rate relative to other areas is suggestive of that.

 

[Devo182]

That's the point. Re is what we observe, and includes the effects of mitigation and behavior, but doesn't really speak to R0. There are some experts who believe that R0 is much lower than initially estimated, and there are definitely some data points that support that, but my opinion is that the rosiest of those are significantly underestimating mitigation and behavior.

Yeah gotcha. Btw those weren't questions pointed at you...just general inquiries and things I'm curious about. I haven't been reading you and Chatta's stuff recently so I was wondering the boundaries of these estimations.

 

[Catbone]

Butchna dang nerds up in here.....

Fyp

 

[VolsDoc81TX]

I believe cases are probably understated by 10x in some areas. I'm inclined to think that Tennessee is lower than that. Our low hospitalization and mortality rate relative to other areas is suggestive of that.

Nope Tennessee produces a hardy strain of folks resistant to both viruses and radiation...

 

[Devo182]

Nope Tennessee produces a hardy strain of folks resistant to both viruses and radiation...

Yeah, but where's our BVS vaccine, doc? That is the real pandemic.

 

[Orangeredblooded]

Buncha dang nerds up in here.....

Thank goodness for the nerds in here, lol

 

[SSVol]

Nope Tennessee produces a hardy strain of folks resistant to both viruses and radiation...

And zombification. Don't forget that.

 

[OrangenSC]

My sister contracted Covid last week. Had mild symptoms and not thought to be a bad case. My dad (after also preaching about the VitD and other nutrients that supposedly help and forcing my sister and mom to take them supplementally) came down with it a few days later. My dad's cough has worsened but no fever. My sister is currently in the ER (prayers appreciated). High fever, possible pneumonia. Needed IVs and antibiotics. Her blood oxygen level was extremely low and her toes were purple. She's 26.

My mom hasn't contracted it. She's a cancer survivor, diabetic and has lymphedema. I'm extremely concerned for her.

Praying for your family.

 

[swchandler1988]

DE with more snaps now that Gooden is a no go...still 3 deep at best.

Not gonna lie, if we lost a d linemen Gooden was the one to lose.
Solomon/Bumphus/Blakely
Emerson/Garland/Simmons
Middleton/Butler/Omari or Savion
Right?

I meant to say, if we were gonna lose a starting defensive linemen, defensive tackle is where we could probably afford it most since Emerson and Garland did well there last year

 

[shoney]

@drvenner @VolsDoc81TX
View attachment 295817

So are teachers. As a teacher, I’ll do like I do every year, show up and teach. When one of the little varmits makes me sick I’ll take a few days off.