Been trying to avoid ***** talk, but since it could have major repercussions for football this week, here it goes. I'm hoping they (SEC) don't go overboard this week based on the current hotspots, when they could all be trending the right way by this or next week...and could all be resolved (as hotspots) by kickoff, if their boom and bust cycles are similar to the early hotspots.
Going back to the original big hotspots, NY and MI, we seem to have had a pretty reliable time cycle for the surge and decline, which is looking consistent with current boom areas. ~4 week surge, dropping off by at least week 6, and back to pre-hotspot numbers by week 10.
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Now here are the current major hotspots, mostly all starting around the 2nd to 3rd week of June:
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Meaning their 10 week mark will be around the end of August or early September...just in time for football. Similar for TN, though we surged slightly later in June, so we could lag a week or 2 behind.
Hopefully Birmingham is considering these quick hotspot cycles.