Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#62,726
#62,726
TennTradition said:
It’s great to hear you are so optimistic about treatment.

How much better do you think we are doing? If 100 people over 75 got it - do you think we are doing as well as only 10 dying instead of 20? Even better?
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I’m not nursegoodvol but there is a huge difference in an able bodied 75 year and someone who is close to or nursing home appropriate..... people don’t understand how medically compromised those people are..... a cold, anesthesia, change in medicine, any kind of fall can be a death sentence to these individuals.... a couple of years ago the flu took 28-35 residents from a facility I was working at.
 
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#62,727
#62,727
TennTradition said:
It’s great to hear you are so optimistic about treatment.

How much better do you think we are doing? If 100 people over 75 got it - do you think we are doing as well as only 10 dying instead of 20? Even better?
Click to expand...
If they bring them in early their chance of dying from complications is much less. Problem is people are waiting till they are really sick. This virus is unique in the fact that inflammatory markers are sky high and so are the blood dyscrasias. It's the clotting that's most concerning.
Clinically the positive admissions were decreasing and the death rate is also decreasing. That's what I'm hearing around Hampton roads area.
I can't attribute it to us doing better except monitoring nursing homes more closely. I can say I believe the inertia of the virus has been stalled. Once a virus stalls it's lethality goes dramatically down. It's chance to perpetuate its existence is cut off. I believe we've passed that stage.
 
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#62,728
#62,728
volbeast33 said:
I’m not nursegoodvol but there is a huge difference in an able bodied 75 year and someone who is close to or nursing home appropriate..... people don’t understand how medically compromised those people are..... a cold, anesthesia, change in medicine, any kind of fall can be a death sentence to these individuals.... a couple of years ago the flu took 28-35 residents from a facility I was working at.
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True, they are fragile.
 
#62,729
#62,729
TennTradition said:
This surge has been going on for a decent while now. The lack of response of death curves to the rise in cases is more than just lag. It’s a combination of: percent rise in cases is higher than percent rise in infections, treatment is better than it was 2-3 months ago, and for now the age distribution of the infected favors higher survival rates.
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At McRib's hospital, the Geri/Psyche had an outbreak 2 weeks ago. Staff and patients effected. Staff got lax on vigilance but not known if pt or staff was ground zero.
They are managing it well. No deaths nor serious illnesses noted.
 
#62,732
#62,732
#62,734
#62,734
evillawyer said:
So let's assume 209 was yesterday's number. With all the new cases, does the death rate continue to drop or do you think it'll increase?
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I think the weekends are always low. Assuming clay was actually saying sunday/saturday.

I would wait to bring out the Mission Accomplished banner until tuesday, which has been the usual "peak" time. Maybe later due to the 4th?

Even if its not a low if the trend is down that's positive. If it holds steady that would make sense imo, the timing of protests and whatnot should start showing up. If it rises beyond a few percentage points that would be worrisome. But not shut down the country.
 
#62,737
#62,737
K-town Vol Fan said:
Which is why we need to do what we can to limit the spread. A lot of people in this board think "I don't care if I get it I'll be fine in a few days" well, that may not actually be the case and IF you DO get it you'll most likely spread it to someone and that might not be the case for them either.
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Just like the flu, H1N1, any communicable disease I have survived in the past.

I always could have passed it on to someone else, and likely have. And there is a good chance they had a worse outcome than i did. Hopefully not death but i cant say that 100%.

As long as you arent visiting an old folks home or the cancer ward of some hospital you should treat this like any other disease. If you do visit some at risk people, take precautions.

The safety/risk factor works both ways.
 
#62,739
#62,739
Has anyone seen an age breakdown by demographics? I could find one or the other, not a separated one.

I have read that minorities have been hit harder, but I was wondering if that is still the same age brackets. Or if its shifted down?
 
#62,740
#62,740
LouderVol said:
I think the weekends are always low. Assuming clay was actually saying sunday/saturday.

I would wait to bring out the Mission Accomplished banner until tuesday, which has been the usual "peak" time. Maybe later due to the 4th?

Even if its not a low if the trend is down that's positive. If it holds steady that would make sense imo, the timing of protests and whatnot should start showing up. If it rises beyond a few percentage points that would be worrisome. But not shut down the country.
Click to expand...

I don't think it's going to rise again to what we saw in March and April (because our treatment protocols are so improved, those getting infected are younger, and the "low hanging fruit"--so to speak--have already succumbed), but it will rise and the young will eventually affect the elderly in Florida, Texas and Arizona. So I expect to see a slow gradual increase in daily deaths for the next three weeks. I hope I'm wrong.
 
#62,742
#62,742
What we experienced in late March and April is going to skew our perspective of this virus. It hit our most populated region of the country at a time when they were still spending large amounts of time indoors due to weather. We didn't know much at all about the virus and it showed as we desperately sought for something that would improve outcomes.

So, now we find ourselves in a tale of different regions. And, that is causing back and forth "discussions" over "real" vs. "fake news", etc. However, to me the data are fairly clear. The hardest hit regions - either due to their continued strict(er) measures or effects of a falling susceptible community (approaching herd immunity) - continue to see no case growth (despite high testing) and have hospitalizations/death curves that show no signs of growth so far.

For example, here is New York:

1594047678011.png


In contrast, you have regions of the country where the virus didn't strike that much at all. Most of these places have opened up widely and have higher susceptible populations - but also generally have lower population density where even with a spreading virus, case growth will just be slower.

To my eyes, we are in an actual non-media-generated outbreak in these regions. We are seeing more that just case growth in my opinion - it is actual infection growth. And with that I believe we will see increased deaths. This, however, is where our perspective skews us. Some, not seeing deaths on the order of 200-500/day in hotspot states might feel its panic over nothing because we are no where near where we were in March/April. With lower population densities - these states would likely not reach peaks like that. Others, seeing rising case counts and hospital census, might fear we are heading for another March/April and want to shut things down before we get there. And this is largely where it seems two sides talk past each other. One often downplays the cases and deaths because they know that the other might (over)react and shut things down prematurely, which they feel is unnecessary. And then the other camp feels like their alternate side is blind to data and is re-open at all cost.

But, right now, I think the truth is in between. I also think there are a number of people here who appreciate that. Infections are rising in these places and I believe rising deaths will follow (I will post some plots below that to me show we are seeing that). However, due to better treatment and lower population densities, that doesn't mean you are necessarily heading straight into another NY, NJ, MA, etc. I still remain in the watchful eye camp. Maybe I'm over-estimating the benefit of treatment/population density. Maybe I'm wrong on severity. But, as you can see from the numbers in the charts below - despite seeing 30-100% increases in deaths/day across these states since the middle of June, the numbers are still quite manageable. Key question is can it be sustained - or do we accelerate past that point?

1594048468742.png

1594048508504.png

1594048535745.png

1594048555711.png

I'll also show GA because of all the grief they got, but they're doing well.....and Tennessee for obvious reasons of interest.

1594048602137.png

1594048624544.png
 
#62,743
#62,743
McDad said:
At McRib's hospital, the Geri/Psyche had an outbreak 2 weeks ago. Staff and patients effected. Staff got lax on vigilance but not known if pt or staff was ground zero.
They are managing it well. No deaths nor serious illnesses noted.
Click to expand...

I also just posted a bit of a follow-up to this. I think the data are pretty consistent and indicate that indeed the hospitalizations and deaths curves have responded to the local outbreaks. But the rise - how fast and to what level - is the key question for these areas that are very different from NY/CT/MA, etc.
 
#62,744
#62,744
volbeast33 said:
It depends on what is involved with those cases which is what the media never reports on..... where I am at..... the overwhelming majority and close to 100% are asymptomatic or extremely minor symptoms.... if that is the case in most places then no actual true covid deaths will not rise.
Click to expand...

Latest numbers out of Florida. There's a chart in there on daily deaths. They are slowing rising ... and remember the people dying today got it BEFORE the big recent surge (you can see that by comparing where the positives were at a few week ago).

Coronavirus cases in Florida top 200,000; daily death toll 14 in Pinellas
 
#62,745
#62,745
TennTradition said:
I also just posted a bit of a follow-up to this. I think the data are pretty consistent and indicate that indeed the hospitalizations and deaths curves have responded to the local outbreaks. But the rise - how fast and to what level - is the key question for these areas that are very different from NY/CT/MA, etc.
Click to expand...
I saw your data. Keep in mind there are situations like McRib's where the 20-30 pts were previously hospitalized and they simply changed the diagnosis. Those count as Covid but the number of beds needed didn't change.
 
#62,746
#62,746
evillawyer said:
Latest numbers out of Florida. There's a chart in there on daily deaths. They are slowing rising ... and remember the people dying today got it BEFORE the big recent surge (you can see that by comparing where the positives were at a few week ago).

Coronavirus cases in Florida top 200,000; daily death toll 14 in Pinellas
Click to expand...

To me, it seems like the recent rise in percent positive tests began around 6/7 in Florida. That to me would put the expected rise in deaths to begin around 6/24. And, I think that's right about where you see it in the charts I posted above.
 
#62,747
#62,747
TennTradition said:
What we experienced in late March and April is going to skew our perspective of this virus. It hit our most populated region of the country at a time when they were still spending large amounts of time indoors due to weather. We didn't know much at all about the virus and it showed as we desperately sought for something that would improve outcomes.

So, now we find ourselves in a tale of different regions. And, that is causing back and forth "discussions" over "real" vs. "fake news", etc. However, to me the data are fairly clear. The hardest hit regions - either due to their continued strict(er) measures or effects of a falling susceptible community (approaching herd immunity) - continue to see no case growth (despite high testing) and have hospitalizations/death curves that show no signs of growth so far.

For example, here is New York:

View attachment 290918


In contrast, you have regions of the country where the virus didn't strike that much at all. Most of these places have opened up widely and have higher susceptible populations - but also generally have lower population density where even with a spreading virus, case growth will just be slower.

To my eyes, we are in an actual non-media-generated outbreak in these regions. We are seeing more that just case growth in my opinion - it is actual infection growth. And with that I believe we will see increased deaths. This, however, is where our perspective skews us. Some, not seeing deaths on the order of 200-500/day in hotspot states might feel its panic over nothing because we are no where near where we were in March/April. With lower population densities - these states would likely not reach peaks like that. Others, seeing rising case counts and hospital census, might fear we are heading for another March/April and want to shut things down before we get there. And this is largely where it seems two sides talk past each other. One often downplays the cases and deaths because they know that the other might (over)react and shut things down prematurely, which they feel is unnecessary. And then the other camp feels like their alternate side is blind to data and is re-open at all cost.

But, right now, I think the truth is in between. I also think there are a number of people here who appreciate that. Infections are rising in these places and I believe rising deaths will follow (I will post some plots below that to me show we are seeing that). However, due to better treatment and lower population densities, that doesn't mean you are necessarily heading straight into another NY, NJ, MA, etc. I still remain in the watchful eye camp. Maybe I'm over-estimating the benefit of treatment/population density. Maybe I'm wrong on severity. But, as you can see from the numbers in the charts below - despite seeing 30-100% increases in deaths/day across these states since the middle of June, the numbers are still quite manageable. Key question is can it be sustained - or do we accelerate past that point?

View attachment 290922

View attachment 290923

View attachment 290924

View attachment 290925

I'll also show GA because of all the grief they got, but they're doing well.....and Tennessee for obvious reasons of interest.

View attachment 290926

View attachment 290928
Click to expand...


Question re Florida, and then a point.

Where are you getting your data on hospitalizations or ICU admissions? This has been clouded in mystery a bit here, with the Governor basically refusing to release the numbers. So I am curious where those come from and would like to know their reliability.

Anecdotally, a friend's sister is an RN in a unit dealing with this. Have not spoken to her in a bit, but three weeks ago they had ten Co-vid patients in ICU. A week late,r they had 81. Outlier? Maybe. But without consistent and reliable data too much is left to speculation.

And now a point: It would seem like the confirmed case count, the ICU admissions, and the deaths, are going to leap up here in about a week to ten days, given the way people conducted themselves this weekend. Its not just the 20-somethings partying at the lake. Its their parents. And it will cascade on through the weaker segments of the population such that the bad outcome numbers really skyrocket in about three weeks.
 
#62,748
#62,748
McDad said:
I saw your data. Keep in mind there are situations like McRib's where the 20-30 pts were previously hospitalized and they simply changed the diagnosis. Those count as Covid but the number of beds needed didn't change.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I find it incredibly difficult to follow hospitalizations in a meaningfully and consistent way. The reason you cite is one of them. Also state to state variation in how it is reported, flex/surge capacity, etc.
 
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#62,749
#62,749
TennTradition said:
Yeah, I find it incredibly difficult to follow hospitalizations in a meaningfully and consistent way. The reason you cite is one of them. Also state to state variation in how it is reported, flex/surge capacity, etc.
Click to expand...

Does the CDC not have buy in from medical community to create consistent measuring standards? How can consistent definable measuring be so poorly executed?
 
#62,750
#62,750
lawgator1 said:
Question re Florida, and then a point.

Where are you getting your data on hospitalizations or ICU admissions? This has been clouded in mystery a bit here, with the Governor basically refusing to release the numbers. So I am curious where those come from and would like to know their reliability.

Anecdotally, a friend's sister is an RN in a unit dealing with this. Have not spoken to her in a bit, but three weeks ago they had ten Co-vid patients in ICU. A week late,r they had 81. Outlier? Maybe. But without consistent and reliable data too much is left to speculation.

And now a point: It would seem like the confirmed case count, the ICU admissions, and the deaths, are going to leap up here in about a week to ten days, given the way people conducted themselves this weekend. Its not just the 20-somethings partying at the lake. Its their parents. And it will cascade on through the weaker segments of the population such that the bad outcome numbers really skyrocket in about three weeks.
Click to expand...

Data Source:
All of this data is generated using the COVID Tracking Project database. It is a widely used source that is assembled by The Atlantic. They pull from multiple different outlets/jurisdictions: cities, states, hospitals, etc. They occasionally have to clean it up as states or cities change how/when they report to avoid overcounting or undercounting. But, in general, other than this I haven't seen anyone throwing large stones at the data.

Hospitalization Data:
As I replied to McDad a few posts up, hospitalization data is very tricky. For the states that allow for it, I also plot new hospitalizations/day. But not all states report cumulative hospitalizations that allow for that calculation. Also you have reclassification - where someone is asymptomatic and occupying a normal bed but is COVID because they broke their leg while they have COVID. I get it. But if those numbers exceed 10% of the COVID census it sure would be nice to have a way to remove them.

Florida:
I think that I can add a plot for ICUs, which I haven't done in the past. If I see anything interesting there I'll post it.
 
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