Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#53,552
#53,552
SIAP...

Original estimate: 2.2M deaths in the US due to Covid-19. Then, revised down to around 60K. We sailed past that so they doubled it up to around 137K deaths. Suggestion...stop building wholly unreliable models that you know are going to be wholly unreliable in the first place. The inputs cannot be substantiated, ergo neither can the tally your models put out. If you’re going to build a model, you can’t sniff all the glue meant to hold it together.
 
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#53,557
#53,557
Vol737 said:
SIAP...

Original estimate: 2.2M deaths in the US due to Covid-19. Then, revised down to around 60K. We sailed past that so they doubled it up to around 137K deaths. Suggestion...stop building wholly unreliable models that you know are going to be wholly unreliable in the first place. The inputs cannot be substantiated, ergo neither can the tally your models put out. If you’re going to build a model, you can’t sniff all the glue meant to hold it together.
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Wait until it's over. You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table. There'll be time enough for countin' when the dealin's done.
 
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#53,559
#53,559
payn_c17366920200510120100.jpg
 
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#53,562
#53,562
MontyPython said:
Ummm. Well there's a curve ball. Are you saying you actually want to contract the virus?
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As a young, healthy person, absolutely. Are you serious? The old and sick need to hunker down, everyone else needs to get it to establish herd immunity. Hell, most cases are asymptomatic and people don't even know they have it. It is the only true long term solution for those at risk we want to protect that is viable before any kind of vaccine is available.

So tell me again, what in and of itself is wrong with a spike in cases?
 
#53,569
#53,569
1972 Grad said:
He doesn't look obese to me. He is black however, and the virus seems to be affecting black people more seriously. Don't know why that would be.

A question that I have is whether or not the flu kills people that you wouldn't expect to die. We never hear of those, but we hear of every seemingly healthy person that dies of the virus. Does the news media want to sensationalize this more than they do the flu?
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Only until this passes and then it's onto the seasonal flu
 
#53,571
#53,571
rjd970 said:
As a young, healthy person, absolutely. Are you serious? The old and sick need to hunker down, everyone else needs to get it to establish herd immunity. Hell, most cases are asymptomatic and people don't even know they have it. It is the only true long term solution for those at risk we want to protect that is viable before any kind of vaccine is available.

So tell me again, what in and of itself is wrong with a spike in cases?
Click to expand...

I don't disagree that herd immunity is A solution, but it's not the only one aside from a virus. Therapies are another (see: HIV). I've read about the possibility of volunteers to be systematically infected. There are dangers obviously... but, don't forget viruses mutate, too. So what's a killer of the old and weak today could affect children or others in the future.
 
#53,574
#53,574
MontyPython said:
I don't disagree that herd immunity is A solution, but it's not the only one aside from a virus. Therapies are another (see: HIV). I've read about the possibility of volunteers to be systematically infected. There are dangers obviously... but, don't forget viruses mutate, too. So what's a killer of the old and weak today could affect children or others in the future.
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If's and but's, candy and nuts.

Herd immunity is not A solution, it is the ONLY solution near term. Shutting the country down isn't sustainable. Waiting for a vaccine isn't sustainable.

So your entire argument of a spike in cases being bad is it COULD mutate? Or, did you fail to answer my question on what is so bad about a spike in cases?

You used the spike in cases as a bad thing. If it is, tell me why. If it's not, then this is yet another example of the unfounded fear mongering and you and the press are doing harm by not being able to STFU about this.

Here is the bottom line. The majority of this country is not at risk, and the vast majority will not die of this. I'm sure this won't stop you from using increase numbers of cases as a fear tactics and silly statements like "this is 10X deadlier than the flu" without any context....but just be advised you look supremely stupid, uninformed, and drama/fear loving while doing it. Congrats.
 
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#53,575
#53,575
rjd970 said:
If's and but's, candy and nuts.

Herd immunity is not A solution, it is the ONLY solution near term. Shutting the country down isn't sustainable. Waiting for a vaccine isn't sustainable.

So your entire argument of a spike in cases being bad is it COULD mutate? Or, did you fail to answer my question on what is so bad about a spike in cases?

You used the spike in cases as a bad thing. If it is, tell me why. If it's not, then this is yet another example of the unfounded fear mongering and you and the press are doing harm by not being able to STFU about this.

Here is the bottom line. The majority of this country is not at risk, and the vast majority will not die of this. I'm sure this won't stop you from using increase numbers of cases as a fear tactics and silly statements like "this is 10X deadlier than the flu" without any context....but just be advised you look supremely stupid, uninformed, and drama/fear loving while doing it. Congrats.
Click to expand...

It's baffling how many people either can't comprehend this or refuse to accept it.
 
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