Coronavirus (No politics)

#3,926
#3,926
vols4sure said:
I assume he is referring to a rate for younger people such as under 60. Given the death rate using actual positive tests and extrapolating out for people that do not bother getting tested because they are generally asymptomatic (or close enough not to bother getting tested), I think it is pretty clear that it is a very, very low death rate for younger people.

I know you have been studying the numbers carefully so interested in your thoughts if people older than 60 are discounted. Would you agree that the death rate appears to be basically like the flu for people under 60 based on recent data?
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I think the 0.66 estimate was overall so it includes people over sixty. I don't think an overall estimate is useful now because it is clear that the fatality rate is a function of age and other conditions. A single number isn't informative. The flu is worse for the very young (infants) than Covid-19. Covid-19 probably becomes more dangerous than the flu in the older middle age group but it is unclear how much of that is due to other conditions like diabetes, respiratory illness, et. For very elderly, Covid-19 is likely much more dangerous even among those without underlying conditions.
 
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#3,927
#3,927
SmokyRiverDog said:
My bad. I did not distinguish between the numerical representation of .0014 and 0.14%. Isn't that what the USC study derived and stated, between 0.14% and 0.28% estimate?
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Stanford, maybe? But yes - around .2-.3. I think the NY study is actually a little better because of the bigger data pool. It was closer to .6-.7 I believe.
 
#3,928
#3,928
vols4sure said:
I assume he is referring to a rate for younger people such as under 60. Given the death rate using actual positive tests and extrapolating out for people that do not bother getting tested because they are generally asymptomatic (or close enough not to bother getting tested), I think it is pretty clear that it is a very, very low death rate for younger people.

I know you have been studying the numbers carefully so interested in your thoughts if people older than 60 are discounted. Would you agree that the death rate appears to be basically like the flu for people under 60 based on recent data?
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For the young, the percentages are so low that it is hard to distinguish. I’d say we really don’t have enough data to start getting solid estimates on death rates in that population. Regardless 2-3x a very low number is still very low - and we can say with confidence, IMO, that it is quite low like the flu. It grows in faster as you get to older demographics and appears to be noticeably more deadly than flu for the elderly and with no natural immunity or vaccine (so higher case counts without mitigation).
 
#3,929
#3,929
ButchPlz said:
What are you reading, then?

You've got people in the posts just above yours complaining that we're going to see some big second wave and people all over social media everywhere demanding that people stay at home still. Whether they're rooting for economic shutdown or not is totally irrelevant- continuing on our current course is an economic shutdown, and there's no argument that can be made otherwise.

I'm not even sure why you responded to my post. I fully believe people that want a continued shutdown and stay at home orders must be financially stable, so they should be able to donate and support those in need because of our slowed economic state.
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Recognizing that going back out again will likely induce a second wave isn’t the same thing as rooting for shutdown. You can accept that the reward is worth the risk. Or you can really want to reopen but at the same time recognize sick people aren’t going to do a good job of isolating, particularly if they don’t have strong symptoms, and thus flare ups are likely. Recognizing these possibilities, or likelihoods, depending on your view, isn’t tantamount to rooting for continued shutdown.
 
#3,930
#3,930
I am truly shocked at how many people seem to be living on the edge of financial disaster. Everyone above the poverty level should be able to take care of themselves and their family for at least six months. I wonder how many of these people who have kids in private schools, car loans, credit card debt, etc. i need to find out which banks are lending these people money so I can get the hell out before they collapse.
 
#3,931
#3,931
TennTradition said:
For the young, the percentages are so low that it is hard to distinguish. I’d say we really don’t have enough data to start getting solid estimates on death rates in that population. Regardless 2-3x a very low number is still very low - and we can say with confidence, IMO, that it is quite low like the flu. It grows in faster as you get to older demographics and appears to be noticeably more deadly than flu for the elderly and with no natural immunity or vaccine (so higher case counts without mitigation).
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What do you make of this regarding younger people..

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/
 
#3,932
#3,932
VolunteerHillbilly said:
I am truly shocked at how many people seem to be living on the edge of financial disaster. Everyone above the poverty level should be able to take care of themselves and their family for at least six months. I wonder how many of these people who have kids in private schools, car loans, credit card debt, etc. i need to find out which banks are lending these people money so I can get the hell out before they collapse.
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Not doubting this is the case for some people but let's not forget about another group that would prefer not spending six months worth of savings when the rationale given to us for the shut downs are no longer applicable in most places.
 
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#3,933
#3,933
vols4sure said:
Not doubting this is the case for some people but let's not forget about another group that would prefer not spending six months worth of savings when the rationale given to us for the shut downs are no longer applicable in most places.
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I guess, but I wonder who of those people cannot work from home? For the people who run retail non-essential small businesses the customers are not going to be at pre-March levels for a looong time. Probably going to lose money just to be open.
 
#3,936
#3,936
Tennessee COVID update
The majority of cases (47%) continue to be in Davidson and Shelby, with the Bledsoe prison and out of state cases totaling another 10%. East Tennessee still looking good for reopening under 100 active cases for the 12 central valley counties.
147,474 completed tests (94% negative)
9,667 total cases (56% are in Davidson, Bledsoe, and Shelby counties)
4,527 recovered 47%
4,959 active
181 deaths 1.8%
East Tennessee active cases (95)
Knox County 24
Roane County 0
Loudon County 6
Anderson County 8
Blount County 9
Campbell County 1
Sevier County 19
Jefferson County 5
Grainger County 0
Cocke County 1
Hamblen County 8
Greene County 14
That's a total of only 95 active cases for the 12 Central valley counties.
 
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#3,937
#3,937
VolunteerHillbilly said:
I am truly shocked at how many people seem to be living on the edge of financial disaster. Everyone above the poverty level should be able to take care of themselves and their family for at least six months. I wonder how many of these people who have kids in private schools, car loans, credit card debt, etc. i need to find out which banks are lending these people money so I can get the hell out before they collapse.
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Same here. I had always read about a large proportion of people were living paycheck to paycheck but didn’t really believe it. Food lines here in Florida are huge. Watching the news, I asked my wife, “but why are half of cars/vans/trucks in that line newer than mine?” What are people thinking buying such vehicles if they haven’t saved up more?
 
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#3,938
#3,938
OldandStillaVol said:
Same here. I had always read about a large proportion of people were living paycheck to paycheck but didn’t really believe it. Food lines here in Florida are huge. Watching the news, I asked my wife, “but why are half of cars/vans/trucks in that line newer than mine?” What are people thinking buying such vehicles if they haven’t saved up more?
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Gotta keep up with the Jones, new Lexus, new iPhone, the important things......
 
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#3,939
#3,939
VolunteerHillbilly said:
I am truly shocked at how many people seem to be living on the edge of financial disaster. Everyone above the poverty level should be able to take care of themselves and their family for at least six months. I wonder how many of these people who have kids in private schools, car loans, credit card debt, etc. i need to find out which banks are lending these people money so I can get the hell out before they collapse.
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It's at least 50% living paycheck to paycheck...lot of it living beyond their means...I never taught economics but tried to give my students some advice about maxing out student loans. I also told them the worst investnent is a 5 year financed car...find a decent 5k dollar one and drive it till it is more expensive to fix than to replace...I was thinking the same about banks...we liquidated about a few thousand just in case
 
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#3,940
#3,940
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#3,941
#3,941
VolunteerHillbilly said:
I am truly shocked at how many people seem to be living on the edge of financial disaster. Everyone above the poverty level should be able to take care of themselves and their family for at least six months. I wonder how many of these people who have kids in private schools, car loans, credit card debt, etc. i need to find out which banks are lending these people money so I can get the hell out before they collapse.
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Nail/head

Six months? Most people don't have enough savings to last more than three months.

FWIW, most banks are not foolish enough to loan people in that financial position money without sufficient collateral. At least not a material amount of money.
Banks tend to get in trouble with larger loans. Speculative non income producing real estate loans got them in trouble in 2008-2009.
I.e. the Residential lots that are valued at $80,000 each with a loan of $50,000. When things collapses they won't bring $10,000 at an auction.
 
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#3,944
#3,944
allvol123 said:
This is a ....we cant get any real traction with just covid in regards to young people, so let's try something else to cause unnecessary alarm.
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The data is in — stop the panic and end the total isolation

I know this has been out for awhile. But the Stanford study estimates to be .1-.2% fatality rate compared to the WHO estimates that were 20 to 30x higher. On top of that, they estimate that the mortality rate for people 18-45 years old to be 0.01% or in other words 10 people per 100,000
 
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#3,945
#3,945
#3,946
#3,946
TennTradition said:
I saw that article a few days ago. I do t know what to make of it, honestly. I’m not a medical doctor so clinically they could offer more insight than I can. But I think this must be a fairly rare occurrence. But interesting on why it might be happening.
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I wouldn’t pretend to know the percentages of how many patients are having strokes due to COVID-19, but I know it springs from how the virus impacts blood coagulability. Where I’m at in NJ, we’re seeing d dimer readings 100-200x the reference range. That’s a recipe for stroke, pulmonary embolism, acute MI, etc.
 
#3,947
#3,947
Regulator said:
I wouldn’t pretend to know the percentages of how many patients are having strokes due to COVID-19, but I know it springs from how the virus impacts blood coagulability. Where I’m at in NJ, we’re seeing d dimer readings 100-200x the reference range. That’s a recipe for stroke, pulmonary embolism, acute MI, etc.
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Do you know if fairly asymptomatic patients have presented with readings in those ranges and at high-risk of stroke?
 
#3,948
#3,948
TennTradition said:
Do you know if fairly asymptomatic patients have presented with readings in those ranges and at high-risk of stroke?
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I don’t have an answer for that, but I’m inclined to think no, they wouldn’t present as fairly asymptomatic. However, there’s a really big window between 500 (high end of reference range) and 91,000, so it would be possible to present asymptomatic, yet still have a very elevated d dimer, and that’s not the only lab that they’re tracking. They’re seeing high ferritin levels as well, presumably from the breakdown of hemoglobin, which would be kind of an indirect reading of coagulopathy.
 
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#3,949
#3,949
OldandStillaVol said:
Same here. I had always read about a large proportion of people were living paycheck to paycheck but didn’t really believe it. Food lines here in Florida are huge. Watching the news, I asked my wife, “but why are half of cars/vans/trucks in that line newer than mine?” What are people thinking buying such vehicles if they haven’t saved up more?
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Status symbol. Trying to make it seem they have more money than they do.

Not sure if anyone posted, there is a quick little 30 minute documentary on Netflix on covid-19. Definitely worth a watch.
 
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#3,950
#3,950
Regulator said:
I don’t have an answer for that, but I’m inclined to think no, they wouldn’t present as fairly asymptomatic. However, there’s a really big window between 500 (high end of reference range) and 91,000, so it would be possible to present asymptomatic, yet still have a very elevated d dimer, and that’s not the only lab that they’re tracking. They’re seeing high ferritin levels as well, presumably from the breakdown of hemoglobin, which would be kind of an indirect reading of coagulopathy.
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I work for someone who is living in Calgary right now and her son's soccer coach died about 3 weeks ago of CV (confirmed after death). He hadn't tested positive - but had the symptoms and was told just to stay home. He was doing OK - coughing a lot with fever, but breathing was just somewhat difficult. He died overnight in his sleep. He was in his mid-30s. Reading this made me wonder if maybe he had a massive stroke - perhaps his bloodwork would have told a worse story than the symptoms he was experiencing did, but he was never in a doctor's office or hospital.
 
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