Coronavirus (No politics)

#3,627
#3,627
VolunteerHillbilly said:
heard all the rain you've gotten up there has made the streams and rivers to swift to fish. maybe you'll get them to yourselves for a bit before things open back up. I would think it's a rare treat to be alone on a good trout stream in this day and age.
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Yeah, the creeks rivers were pretty bad
 
#3,630
#3,630
volinbham said:
I heard that was a symptom/complication - is it pretty common in those who have other symptoms?
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Loss of Smell and Taste Validated as COVID-19 Symptoms

Loss of smell and taste validated as COVID-19 symptoms in patients with high recovery rate: Study suggests clinicians should include sensory impairment as standard screening measure

Nothing super mind blowing in here, but seems to be a fairly common. My other symptoms are mainly headache, congestion, occasional chills and a slight cough. Tylenol and Sudafed seem to be managing them well enough.

My girlfriend is having a worse time than I am. She’s experiencing more of the shortness of breath and chest tightness.

I’ve read that O blood types may be more resistant and A types more susceptible. I’m O+ and she is A+, so there could be some truth to that based on my limited observations with our experience so far 🤷🏻‍♂️

I’m not going to be happy about being unable to enjoy my bourbon for 2-4 weeks tho 😑
 
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#3,631
#3,631
xJesusx56 said:
Loss of Smell and Taste Validated as COVID-19 Symptoms

Loss of smell and taste validated as COVID-19 symptoms in patients with high recovery rate: Study suggests clinicians should include sensory impairment as standard screening measure

Nothing super mind blowing in here, but seems to be a fairly common. My other symptoms are mainly headache, congestion, occasional chills and a slight cough. Tylenol and Sudafed seem to be managing them well enough.

My girlfriend is having a worse time than I am. She’s experiencing more of the shortness of breath and chest tightness.

I’ve read that O blood types may be more resistant and A types more susceptible. I’m O+ and she is A+, so there could be some truth to that based on my limited observations with our experience so far 🤷🏻‍♂️

I’m not going to be happy about being unable to enjoy my bourbon for 2-4 weeks tho 😑
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taste is just one way to enjoy bourbon IMHO
 
#3,633
#3,633
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#3,634
#3,634
TT - have you seen the Stanford study on the general population in Santa Clara I believe.

Indicates much wider level of population infection than previously reported. Wondering your thoughts.
 
#3,635
#3,635
TennTradition said:
I would have guessed 10-20x more have had it than recorded but I was assuming a mortality rate more like 0.66%. Would have to be many more infected if rate is more like .1-.2. Point is, I think it’s fair to say there’s at least an order of magnitude more cases that measured.
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Good to hear you say. You seem to be very good at data analysis.

I posted 2 similar types of studies from Santa Clara and Colorado. Would you have reservations about anything you saw in either?
 
#3,636
#3,636
TennTradition said:
I would have guessed 10-20x more have had it than recorded but I was assuming a mortality rate more like 0.66%. Would have to be many more infected if rate is more like .1-.2. Point is, I think it’s fair to say there’s at least an order of magnitude more cases that measured.
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What's the general consensus... if there is one on population percentage for herd immunity?
 
#3,638
#3,638
volinbham said:
TT - have you seen the Stanford study on the general population in Santa Clara I believe.

Indicates much wider level of population infection than previously reported. Wondering your thoughts.
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EDIT - didn't realize the study in the link was the same I was talking about - nevermind
 
#3,639
#3,639
allvol123 said:
IHME just updated.

US to 60k deaths.

TN to 231 deaths. It was 5k just a matter of weeks ago and 487 prior to this update.
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Stockholm is a lot like San Antonio in pop and pop density. Gothenburg a lot like Atlanta. Those cities are about 15% of the population. After that cities drop off in a hurry. But there are some 200-300k in there.

Would be interesting to compare those two cities to Sweden’s. The Swedish strike me as a people that would largely social distance without being required to. Is that happening?
 
#3,640
#3,640
allvol123 said:
I thought it was around 70%. Could be wrong, been awhile since I read whatever article I saw that in.
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That’s certainly been thrown around.

It’s a function of R0 for a virus. And I don’t think we understand that yet due to the possibly large fraction that haven’t tested positive. Higher R0, the higher fraction needed for herd immunity.
 
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#3,641
#3,641
TennTradition said:
Stockholm is a lot like San Antonio in pop and pop density. Gothenburg a lot like Atlanta. Those cities are about 15% of the population. After that cities drop off in a hurry. But there are some 200-300k in there.

Would be interesting to compare those two cities to Sweden’s. The Swedish strike me as a people that would largely social distance without being required to. Is that happening?
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Denmark pop is 6 mill. Sweden is 10 mill.

IHME has Denmark at 686 projected deaths and Swden at 6k. It is obvious you get starkly different numbers from IHME with the different approaches. So it becomes a question of how much economic damage are you willing to trade off for saving how many lives, using their models.

The commentary I've read on Swedes is that they unflinchingly follow the given experts in their respective fields. I think they are obviously doing much less social distancing than others. I think schools are still operating.
 
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#3,642
#3,642
VolnJC said:
What's the general consensus... if there is one on population percentage for herd immunity?
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Just replied above but ranges are still pretty wide due to so many unknowns.

R0 of 2-3 would be in that 60-70% range I think. If it’s spreading faster than we think then it would require a higher percentage
 
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#3,644
#3,644
allvol123 said:
Denmark pop is 6 mill. Sweden is 10 mill.

IHME has Denmark at 686 projected deaths and Swden at 6k. It is obvious you get starkly different numbers with the different approaches. So it becomes a question of how much economic damage are you willing to trade off for saving how many lives.

The commentary I've read on Swedes is that they unflinchingly follow the given experts in their respective fields.
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I still have to wonder about the timing of spread vs total spread. Assuming sufficient HC resources the virus will kill a certain percentage of the population (adjusted of course for co-morbidities).

The virus doesn't disappear - mitigation slows the spread. Seems over time the same # of people will become infected and thus all else equal the total death should be the same.
 
#3,645
#3,645
volinbham said:
I still have to wonder about the timing of spread vs total spread. Assuming sufficient HC resources the virus will kill a certain percentage of the population (adjusted of course for co-morbidities).

The virus doesn't disappear - mitigation slows the spread. Seems over time the same # of people will become infected and thus all else equal the total death should be the same.
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Yes, I had been thinking about your comment last night in relation to the IHME numbers for Sweden and Denmark. You are correct, based on that post from last night, strategies should be largely irrelevant in end total of deaths, right? Assuming you never over stress your HC system.
 
#3,646
#3,646
xJesusx56 said:
Taste and smell are 2 big parts of it not to have haha. I had just bought a bottle of Stagg Jr and Weller Antique I was looking forward to cracking open too.
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Sounds like this would be an opportune time to drink any cheap bourbon you may have received as a gift, or bought but didn't like after trying it!
 
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#3,647
#3,647
allvol123 said:
Yes, I had been thinking about your comment last night in relation to the IHME numbers for Sweden and Denmark. You are correct, based on that post from last night, strategies should be largely irrelevant in end total of deaths, right? Assuming you never over stress your HC system.
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presumably unless the virus ultimately gets stopped somehow. I suppose if you could always intervene with quarantine and contact tracing you would slow it to a crawl but it still seems to be a delay. People won't develop natural immunity.
 
#3,648
#3,648
volinbham said:
presumably unless the virus ultimately gets stopped somehow. I suppose if you could always intervene with quarantine and contact tracing you would slow it to a crawl but it still seems to be a delay. People won't develop natural immunity.
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I dont see how you're wrong. So now I dont see how IHME can produce such vastly different numbers between a Norway and Sweden.
 
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