I could very well be wrong on this but if JG progresses in his 2nd year in Chaney's system and plays just a tad better than he did last year we should be a 9 win team including a bowl win.
What makes that improvement a reasonable expectation? The things that hurt him haven't been system related. They're related to his inability to quickly process reads and to anticipate throws. He improved some things last year. Yet his inability to anticipate throws was the primary reason UT stank in the red zone. That was never MORE on display than the Indiana game. He was just "late" over and over. That wasn't a new thing.
He DID improve in his use of the middle of the field but almost exclusively on longer developing plays. You still didn't see him feel pressure and hit a spot with the ball.
Those appear to be innate weaknesses. Different coaches have worked with him on them for 4 years. I am not optimistic at all that he's going to flip a switch this fall. If he is the starter, those weaknesses will cost UT winnable games.
If Maurer plays and progresses the same as JG we will be a 7-8 win team. If he improves dramatically and makes significantly better decisions you never know we could be a 9-10 win ball club.
First, he is on a different part of the learning curve than JG so if he progresses "the same"... then he would have failed to improve anywhere close to enough to be the starter. But... again... he's on the steep portion of the learning curve while JG has pretty much plateaued.
His decision making was spotty. He is talented and aggressive. Unlike JG, he anticipates and confidently delivers to a spot. He quickly makes decisions. His problem is that he was wrong too often.
Of the two problems... you want Maurer's problems over JG's. Maurer's are coachable. JG's appear to be innate talent related.
Maurer's stellar 46.2% completion percentage and 2.5 INT to TD ratio from last year ain't gonna get us anywhere. He threw more INTs in the endzone than he threw TDs on the season.
Stats without context are how you end up bragging about the "stats" of a QB who was so ineffective the program lost 8 games for the first time in its history.
Take Maurer's "trash time" out... and he looks a lot better. Take the JJ hand off on a pass perfectly thrown out... and the INT's aren't quite the same problem.
Maurer made some really bad decisions. One of his INT's vs MSU could have been a TD had JJ timed his jump right. If you don't believe me go back and look. But it was STILL a bad decision by Maurer. Both DB's dropped off on JJ. He had Callaway open underneath on what should have been an easy score.
He was a Freshman. He played with moxie and confidence unlike JG who was afraid and hesitant as a RS Fr... still made plenty of mistakes... and still struggles to "pull the trigger" at times.
PS- remember you ARE comparing a RS Jr to a true Fr that NO ONE thought was really ready to play. Maurer only played because JG was so bad.... keep that in mind going forward too considering how JG played the last two games.