Coronavirus (No politics)

#2,627
#2,627
Well it finally happened. My office got absolutely crushed under unemployment calls today. I didn't touch anything else I normally do on a daily basis. I felt like I was back in the call center.
 
#2,628
#2,628
ButchPlz said:
I understand your point on Coke, but what makes, say, McDonald's essential and somebody's salon not? Nobody NEEDS McDonald's to survive any more than they need haircuts.
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You need food more than you need a haircut. Homeland Securities list just states "food services". Any company that falls under that industry can claim they are essential.
 
#2,630
#2,630
Take a look at these projections for Tennessee and Alabama from the "respected" IHME site..
Keep in mind
1) Alabama has a warmer climate
2) Less than half the cases of TN
3) Entirely shut down earlier than TN
20200401_195159.jpg20200401_195136.jpg20200401_195220.jpg20200401_195236.jpg
 
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#2,633
#2,633
allvol123 said:
So what's the end game? We cant quarantine this out of existence. At some point the economic damage will create more damage than the virus.
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500k to millions of deaths also will cause a lot of economic damage and you’ll have all the deaths. Folks will do the quarantine out of fear (bs guidance) when you are hitting incredibly high levels of deaths like that so it isn’t like quarantine is the only way a pandemic can hurt an economy - even severely.

So, we quarantine as we think that can help us avoid these scenarios with such large loss of life. End game is you quarantine, looking for the peak. You slow the spread down and lower the peak by quarantining because you lower contact rate and therefore R0. Estimates seem to be that we see peaking in NY in the next two weeks and continued elsewhere through mid-May. I’m generally a few weeks later in the peaks in my model (for example mid-May in Davidson county instead of mid-to-late-April in other - real viral modeler’s - models). Not sure why that is.

As cities move through their peak, we can start easing back in. Go too fast and you will flare up and you might have to tap down a bit again. But as you ride down the active case curve on the back side of the peak you can sustain fairly decent increases in R0 (less social distancing) without flaring up too much it seems. That’s a function of population density, contact patterns, etc.

NY likely back before others. Basically phased back in most likely based on speed of epidemic locally. I think rural areas will be able to let off as nearby urban areas peak and start falling but will see increased cases if they aren’t also already peaked (and many won’t be) but very rural areas will be slower in spread and the urban hospitals will be clearing out so they’ll be able to help shoulder the load.

Pandemics are terribly nasty business. It’s why there are folks on the National Security Council (yes I believe even still) who focus on them. It’s a huge economic and security risk.
 
#2,636
#2,636
***RoadVol*** said:
You need food more than you need a haircut. Homeland Securities list just states "food services". Any company that falls under that industry can claim they are essential.
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Some are heavily relying on drive thrus, takeout, and food delivery during this outbreak as well. Or just doing this more and limiting themselves from grocery shopping trips.
 
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#2,637
#2,637
ButchPlz said:
Our idiot city manager closed the greenway system here because "people aren't social distancing".

It's really hard to stay within six feet of someone while running, walking, or biking outdoors.
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I was working downtown Nashville for about a week after the schools and most large employers had thrown in the towel. Every day, bunch of 20-somethings were out doing group fitness in close contact. I have not been back downtown in a week and half, but I feel confident that it's still happening. I posted in another thread that I saw a group of young men doing football practice at David Lipscomb on Monday. I have friends who tell me their kids are doing social things with friends. I guess that after a few days of arguing, the parents just throw in the towel, probably assuming that their families' ages and health will shield them.
 
#2,640
#2,640
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#2,644
#2,644
headhunter15 said:
Those job numbers are terrifying. Forget recession. This could be a depression if America doesn’t get back to even a small normal in the next couple of weeks. Trump/Fauci/Birx/Media have turned this into a frenzy with their doomsday numbers and sensationalism reporting.
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I've been fairly disappointed in President Trump's response.
 
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#2,645
#2,645
headhunter15 said:
Those job numbers are terrifying. Forget recession. This could be a depression if America doesn’t get back to even a small normal in the next couple of weeks. Trump/Fauci/Birx/Media have turned this into a frenzy with their doomsday numbers and sensationalism reporting.
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It's going to dwarf the great depression.
 
#2,646
#2,646
First positive case in my hospital was resulted/diagnosed Tuesday night after having been swabbed on 3/26. Elderly, several underlying health issues, but lived at home and hadn’t left his house for three weeks and had no/limited contact during that period with anyone other than his wife. To me, that lends more credence to the thought that this virus has been here for quite sometime.... we just weren’t looking for it.
 
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#2,648
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