Coronavirus (No politics)

#2,601
#2,601
Sudden Impact said:
IMO they are using this model with worse case scenario. It is updated daily and is tracking with its own projections.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Another tool to see that your phone is being tracked. with a social distancing grade down to county level.

Covid-19 Social Distancing Scoreboard — Unacast
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That social distancing scoreboard is something else! Outside of grocery stores, factories, and restaurants, Hamblen Co has nothing going on and it still has a D grade.
 
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#2,603
#2,603
hog88 said:
It's politicians wanting to be seen as doing something so when this does die down they can tout their leadership.
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I'm just addressing the conspiracy that is driven by so many of us that believe the reaction is disproportionate to the events here. So we scratch our heads and think, well maybe this is so bad that they are lying to us about it. No, I dont see that either.
 
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#2,604
#2,604
TennTradition said:
It was definitely a bit odd when a few weeks ago they were urging people not to buy them because they do not help stop the spread of the virus unless you have it and are protecting others. They went on to say don’t buy them because it could cause a shortage and we need to keep this supply for our medical providers. I’m not saying we don’t need to protect those guys. But that messaging just seemed to make no sense.
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Being confused by their messaging is now becoming clearer since they are going to likely begin recommending wearing masks.
 
#2,605
#2,605
Tennessee coronavirus update
2683 total cases 2522 active
2522/7,000,000=0.03% of population
200 total hospital admissions 7% of cases
24 deaths 0.9% rate
29,769 negatives/32,452 tests = 92% negative rate
Davidson 423
Shelby 496
Out of state 243
43% of cases in those 3 areas
 
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#2,609
#2,609
Our idiot city manager closed the greenway system here because "people aren't social distancing".

It's really hard to stay within six feet of someone while running, walking, or biking outdoors.
 
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#2,610
#2,610
ButchPlz said:
Our idiot city manager closed the greenway system here because "people aren't social distancing".

It's really hard to stay within six feet of someone while running, walking, or biking outdoors.
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This is out of control. They’re gonna piss of the wrong people soon enough.
 
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#2,611
#2,611
allvol123 said:
I'm just addressing the conspiracy that is driven by so many of us that believe the reaction is disproportionate to the events here. So we scratch our heads and think, well maybe this is so bad that they are lying to us about it. No, I dont see that either.
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I’m not an epidemiologist so I want to caution that this is just arm-chairing....but

For the first week after Davidson county reached its 10th case, the county followed a near-perfect doubling every 3 days trajectory - which by my modeling would be consistent with an R0 of 3.6 (assuming the average person is contagious for 12 days). However, about 9 days after that 10th case, the rate of growth changed to a trajectory of doubling more like every 7 days or so - or an R0 of 1.6. The date where the infections were occurring that led to that trajectory changed was (assuming testing occurs as patients become symptomatic, 5 days of median incubation time, and 3-5 days for test results to come back) roughly somewhere around 3/13/20-3/15/20. Interestingly this was when the SEC tournament was canceled and Broadway was closed. Is it possible that people began taking this much more seriously as that happened? I think so and find it interesting.

Had Davidson county maintained the trajectory it had been on initially Davidson county would now be at over 5000 cases. Instead yesterday it was at more like 400.

So while the response may seem disproportionate to the events there, I believe the events are being mitigated by the response.

I don’t know how wrong it is - but my modeling suggests we should have around 3-4 deaths in Davidson county now. Had we not changed trajectory that would be at 20-30 in my model. And while that still isn’t *that many* it would continue going up from there.

These models are incredibly tricky and the really tough part is that the actual deaths are too high for the cases we have given what we think we know about the mortality of the virus. This implies that the asymptomatic carrier population might be even higher than we think (in my model I have to increase it to one asymptomatic carrier for every symptomatic carrier to get the results to start making sense). So I offer that disclaimer given that large uncertainty.
 
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#2,612
#2,612
ButchPlz said:
Our idiot city manager closed the greenway system here because "people aren't social distancing".

It's really hard to stay within six feet of someone while running, walking, or biking outdoors.
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That could be more of a liability issue. When people don't listen and contract the virus, they want to blame someone. My Dad is/was a park ranger in our city, and they have definitely closed all parks and facilities, but their greenline is still open. Another issue is the lack of city personnel if something happens.

While the greenline makes it more difficult, I run several times a week in my neighborhood and am just fine staying away from people.
 
#2,613
#2,613
VolGee4 said:
That could be more of a liability issue. When people don't listen and contract the virus, they want to blame someone. My Dad is/was a park ranger in our city, and they have definitely closed all parks and facilities, but their greenline is still open. Another issue is the lack of city personnel if something happens.

While the greenline makes it more difficult, I run several times a week in my neighborhood and am just fine staying away from people.
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That would make sense if they were closing the parks and natural surface trails, too. But they aren't.

It's a bonehead power play from a city council that wants to pretend like they're our parents. This isn't the first silly thing like this that they've done, and won't be the last.
 
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#2,614
#2,614
ButchPlz said:
That would make sense if they were closing the parks and natural surface trails, too. But they aren't.

It's a bonehead power play from a city council that wants to pretend like they're our parents. This isn't the first silly thing like this that they've done, and won't be the last.
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It's up to each city to determine that or to analyze the risk, and something that goes into that analysis is liability. It just does. I'd prefer the government not tell us what to do, but it's mainly for those people who can't seem to use common sense.

I am just not bent out of shape over stuff like this. Until someone locks my front door so that I can't leave, then I am ok. I can still exercise, be with my wife and kids, and get the essentials that I need. Do I want to be able to get other things? Sure, but that's not where we are right now. It doesn't phase people until it hits closer to home when someone you know has tested positive.
 
#2,615
#2,615
TennTradition said:
I’m not an epidemiologist so I want to caution that this is just arm-chairing....but

For the first week after Davidson county reached its 10th case, the county followed a near-perfect doubling every 3 days trajectory - which by my modeling would be consistent with an R0 of 3.6 (assuming the average person is contagious for 12 days). However, about 9 days after that 10th case, the rate of growth changed to a trajectory of doubling more like every 7 days or so - or an R0 of 1.6. The date where the infections were occurring that led to that trajectory changed was (assuming testing occurs as patients become symptomatic, 5 days of median incubation time, and 3-5 days for test results to come back) roughly somewhere around 3/13/20-3/15/20. Interestingly this was when the SEC tournament was canceled and Broadway was closed. Is it possible that people began taking this much more seriously as that happened? I think so and find it interesting.

Had Davidson county maintained the trajectory it had been on initially Davidson county would not be at over 5000 cases. Instead yesterday it was at more like 400.

So while the response may seem disproportionate to the events there, so believe the events are being mitigated by the response.

I don’t know how wrong it is - but my modeling suggests we should have around 3-4 deaths in Davidson county now. Had we not changed trajectory that would be at 20-30 in my model. And while that still isn’t *that many* it would continue going up from there.

These models are incredibly tricky and the really tough part is that the deaths are too high for the cases we have given what we think we know about the mortality of the virus. This implies that the asymptomatic carrier population might be even higher than we think (in my model I have to increase it to one asymptomatic carrier for every symptomatic carrier to get the results to start making sense). So I offer that disclaimer given that large uncertainty.
Click to expand...

So what's the end game? We cant quarantine this out of existence. At some point the economic damage will create more damage than the virus.
 
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#2,617
#2,617
allvol123 said:
So what's the end game? We cant quarantine this out of existence. At some point the economic damage will create more damage than the virus.
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One can only speculate but at some point, things will open back up, not everything at once. Maybe jobs first, schools next, churches next(?), sporting events last. Hopefully, testing will be massively more efficient, some people at higher risk put on the combo drug for prevention. Still some social distancing for things as they open up.
 
#2,618
#2,618
VolGee4 said:
It's up to each city to determine that or to analyze the risk, and something that goes into that analysis is liability. It just does. I'd prefer the government not tell us what to do, but it's mainly for those people who can't seem to use common sense.

I am just not bent out of shape over stuff like this. Until someone locks my front door so that I can't leave, then I am ok. I can still exercise, be with my wife and kids, and get the essentials that I need. Do I want to be able to get other things? Sure, but that's not where we are right now. It doesn't phase people until it hits closer to home when someone you know has tested positive.
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I wish I could buy that, but this is the same city council that dropped $20k+ on storm drain murals.
 
#2,621
#2,621
***RoadVol*** said:
Food services is not essential? You do realize Coke makes more than just soda?
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I understand your point on Coke, but what makes, say, McDonald's essential and somebody's salon not? Nobody NEEDS McDonald's to survive any more than they need haircuts.
 
#2,622
#2,622
***RoadVol*** said:
Food services is not essential? You do realize Coke makes more than just soda?
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Yes I do. But you can limit human interaction if they are making only the essentials. Coca cola itself is not essential. My point being, I dont think the government is holding back on any info here.
 
#2,623
#2,623
ButchPlz said:
I wish I could buy that, but this is the same city council that dropped $20k+ on storm drain murals.
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Well that’s a totally different issue. I didn’t say that I agree with what everything a government does. Just not bent out of shape over these protective measures.
 
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