Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

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#120,081
#120,081
SSVol said:
I'll readily admit there are a dozen reasons it could be wrong. I've looked at numbers that are clearly too low (and why) and numbers that are clearly too high (and why). My personal opinion is that Korea and the ship are giving a glimpse of the real number, which I think will end up between 1.0% and 1.5%.

I'm a professional nerd. My science-fu is decent. But I am not a doctor or epidemiologist, and certainly not a prophet. I would be thrilled to be wrong.
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The thing about the cruise ships that’s a giant * is the high percentage of the population that was over 60. Even there, the number of asymptomatic cases is roughly 18%. Another study of children in China (I know, take this one with a grade of slaw but it’s been peer reviewed) put the asymptomatic cases at 56%. So let’s say on average that the number of asymptomatic cases averages out somewhere in the 40% range based on the median age of Americans. Add to that the number of cases that have mild symptoms that never get tested, and I think we have a much larger denominator that puts us easily under the 1.0% fatality rate. I would dare say we will end up with this thing being in the 0.5%-0.7% range in the short term, which is still a significant number, but far less overall. And that number will drop significantly with increased knowledge on treatments.

Color me hopeful about this thing overall. I have trust in our medical professionals, our researchers, and ultimately my peace rests in the Lord my God.
 
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#120,082
#120,082
Brillovol said:
The thing about the cruise ships that’s a giant * is the high percentage of the population that was over 60. Even there, the number of asymptomatic cases is roughly 18%. Another study of children in China (I know, take this one with a grade of slaw but it’s been peer reviewed) put the asymptomatic cases at 56%. So let’s say on average that the number of asymptomatic cases averages out somewhere in the 40% range based on the median age of Americans. Add to that the number of cases that have mild symptoms that never get tested, and I think we have a much larger denominator that puts us easily under the 1.0% fatality rate. I would dare say we will end up with this thing being in the 0.5%-0.7% range in the short term, which is still a significant number, but far less overall. And that number will drop significantly with increased knowledge on treatments.

Color me hopeful about this thing overall. I have trust in our medical professionals, our researchers, and ultimately my peace rests in the Lord my God.
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Preach!!!
 
#120,084
#120,084
VFLBerg said:
Even if they are sure that you have it you may not get tested. My niece has it and she was told by the doctor that he was sure she had it but they were only testing health care professionals and "jailers" (his words). She was sent home to self quarantine.
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That’s inaccurate on the doctor’s side. I believe he said it and he is completely wrong.

I ordered a few this week.
 
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#120,086
#120,086
Brillovol said:
The thing about the cruise ships that’s a giant * is the high percentage of the population that was over 60. Even there, the number of asymptomatic cases is roughly 18%. Another study of children in China (I know, take this one with a grade of slaw but it’s been peer reviewed) put the asymptomatic cases at 56%. So let’s say on average that the number of asymptomatic cases averages out somewhere in the 40% range based on the median age of Americans. Add to that the number of cases that have mild symptoms that never get tested, and I think we have a much larger denominator that puts us easily under the 1.0% fatality rate. I would dare say we will end up with this thing being in the 0.5%-0.7% range in the short term, which is still a significant number, but far less overall. And that number will drop significantly with increased knowledge on treatments.

Color me hopeful about this thing overall. I have trust in our medical professionals, our researchers, and ultimately my peace rest with the Lord my God.
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There is iron in your words for all men to hear!!!😉
 
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#120,090
#120,090
WBO said:
I can get tears in my eyes looking at an American flag in a strong wind, but I don't believe you should be forced to say the Pledge of Allegiance.
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I think the pledge should be mandatory in k-12. Children should be taught to have pride in their country. Obviously, because I believe in individual civil liberties, I don't believe in forcing adults to say the pledge, but at the same time I have serious misgivings about anyone who won't.

I own several guns, probably way more than average but I don't have a problem with background checks or limitations on assault weapons. But I don't hate or denigrate anyone who disagrees with me on those things.
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As long as it the individual states conducting background checks. I 100% oppose any suggestion of a universal background check, which is in essence a national database for the federal government to know who has weapons. As history has shown elsewhere, that is a step towards gun confiscation.

I also wish people would quit referring to AR15-style platforms as 'assault weapons'. A semi-automatic weapon is not even close to being a military assault weapon, but I am curious as to what limitations you would put on an AR-15. It is against the law to have a fully automatic rifle so I can't imagine what other limitations a semi-automatic rifle would need.
 
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#120,092
#120,092
Brillovol said:
The thing about the cruise ships that’s a giant * is the high percentage of the population that was over 60. Even there, the number of asymptomatic cases is roughly 18%. Another study of children in China (I know, take this one with a grade of slaw but it’s been peer reviewed) put the asymptomatic cases at 56%. So let’s say on average that the number of asymptomatic cases averages out somewhere in the 40% range based on the median age of Americans. Add to that the number of cases that have mild symptoms that never get tested, and I think we have a much larger denominator that puts us easily under the 1.0% fatality rate. I would dare say we will end up with this thing being in the 0.5%-0.7% range in the short term, which is still a significant number, but far less overall. And that number will drop significantly with increased knowledge on treatments.

Color me hopeful about this thing overall. I have trust in our medical professionals, our researchers, and ultimately my peace rests in the Lord my God.
Click to expand...

Every time I read about a percentage of asymptomatic positives, they rarely say how many developed symptoms sometime after the test is administered. When they do, the number that stay asymptomatic seem to drop by quite a bit.

In other words, they often test folks that just haven't become symptomatic yet. Nailing down a true number is going to be really hard.
 
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#120,093
#120,093
JacketVol said:
just an opinion. It may should be earlier. Just think with bailouts and spending and unemployment combos, it will make the economy so bad, we will have such big issues that even the most ardent fans won’t care. It’s not just about money but about a way of life. 30 percent unemployment is not sustainable in my opinion. Mortgage Servicing companies are about to go bankrupt if the government doesn’t step in. Lending for government mortgages is in more peril than 2008. Lenders are bleeding with no liquidity. It’s more complicated than people think. Hud can’t expect full payment by the servicing companies when not allowing foreclosures. This is just one part of the economy but a shutdown past May will bring harm like we have not seen. May happen anyway.
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The govt checks should help for 1 month. Cut in May. Hopefully subsides by June.
 
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#120,094
#120,094
WriterVol said:
Every time I read about a percentage of asymptomatic positives, they rarely say how many developed symptoms sometime after the test is administered. When they do, the number that stay asymptomatic seem to drop by quite a bit.

In other words, they often test folks that just haven't become symptomatic yet. Nailing down a true number is going to be really hard.
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I've wondered the same. Saying X% are aympto is only partly helpful when people can stay that way for 5 days.
 
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#120,095
#120,095
gainesvol82 said:
She is too young to have gone to Woodstock but she is definitely nuts... pretty clear the trauma of her rape and killing her husband eats at her.

They are all crazy but at least the others own it....gay dude should chill on the Waco talk. The former drug dealer and his wife in Miami are the most normal to me.
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Not big players in it all, but the tv producer and the girl that lost her hand seemed to be the only sane ones. And maybe the low key zoo manager, Reinke or whatever.
 
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#120,096
#120,096
gainesvol82 said:
88 at my house, expected to go up to 93. It's really early to be this hot in N. FL.

60-70 is perfect outside temp for me and up to low 80s is fine. Get to 90s and Im either inside or at the beach. I live for November through April.

I know...wtf do I live in FL?
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91 here in Winter Park and supposed to get up to 93-94 and 95 tomorrow. It's burning
 
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#120,097
#120,097
Crazy Ivan said:
I think the pledge should be mandatory in k-12. Children should be taught to have pride in their country. Obviously, because I believe in individual civil liberties, I don't believe in forcing adults to say the pledge, but at the same time I have serious misgivings about anyone who won't.



As long as it the individual states conducting background checks. I 100% oppose any suggestion of a universal background check, which is in essence a national database for the federal government to know who has weapons. As history has shown elsewhere, that is a step towards gun confiscation.

I also wish people would quit referring to AR15-style platforms as 'assault weapons'. A semi-automatic weapon is not even close to being a military assault weapon, but I am curious as to what limitations you would put on an AR-15. It is against the law to have a fully automatic rifle so I can't imagine what other limitations a semi-automatic rifle would need.
Click to expand...
My problem with it is the media referring to the big bugaboo being semi-automatic weapons. That presumably includes you're basic 22 LR plinker
 
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