Coronavirus (No politics)

#2,351
#2,351
JacketVol said:
Still forgetting that Fergerson said initial model was still WRONG due to knowledge now that more people already had it from before than what it was based on. Pause was right thing. Let that finish then decide how much longer it should be. Even he said that was deaths thru the end of the year.
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JacketVol said:
Neil Fergerson gave some clarity. Saying 20k he told parliament is due to the shutdown now in place from a few days ago will accomplish it. Other was if doing nothing.
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Please let me know if I am confused but did you not say yesterday that there was clarification later? Clarification that Ferguson did not actually walk back his original model but stated that due to the shutdown now in place there will be an impact on mortality (mortality will be lower). The other scenario was a "do nothing" scenario?

Coronavirus Pandemic: Neil Ferguson Didn't Walk Back His COVID-19 Predictions | National Review

I am being sincere when I say that I would be interested in an article or some type of data which shows that the modeling has been changed. There are also other models which have challenged Ferguson's but I haven't seen any data saying that he walked his original model back.
 
#2,353
#2,353
Also people clean your phones daily wipe them down with Clorox wipes i think there is a good chance alot of people are getting infected by their phones. This virus can stay on plastics for 3 to 5 days
 
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#2,355
#2,355
BigOrangeAl 1979 said:
Also people clean your phones daily wipe them down with Clorox wipes i think there is a good chance alot of people are getting infected by their phones. This virus can stay on plastics for 3 to 5 days
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When I taught aseptic technique I would always let the students go around the school and swab one item. The one who grew the most micro organisms in 72 hours got like a 5 point bonus on a quiz grade. Phones and purses were always a couple of the top growers.
Disinfectant wipes are the one thing I haven't been able to find in the stores yet. Thankfully we were able to make some hand sanitizer from alcohol, aloe vera, and essential oils
 
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#2,359
#2,359
JCP201 said:
So eerie to see the French Quarter deserted.
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I saw a good collection of photos from Vegas a couple days ago. You don't get the chance to capture the strip in beautiful sunlight with zero people very often. Very surreal and eerie. Saw a walk through of Caesars casino with just the emergency lights on. So strange.
 
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#2,360
#2,360
RavinDave said:
Don’t forget there may be a lag time of 2 weeks or more, between the time a given case is identified (confirmed) and when it is resolved/recovered. So recoveries will always be lagging behind when the rate of spread is increasing.
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And the testing - who was tested when and who wasn't, the quality and quantity of tests, the extreme time lag on test results really screw up the statistics. In addition the inaccuracy/inefficiency in testing really inhibited the means to isolate people and to minimize use of facilities, equipment, and expendable materials - all that doubtlessly led to more infections and further stressed the healthcare system. The Chinese are to blame for being less than forthcoming about the virus, the CDC is very much at blame for trying to keep everything in house with inadequate resources to do so, and providers (primarily hospitals) share blame for failure to maintain stocks of protective equipment that would be necessary during times like these - FEMA and other similar agencies should never have to dig into stocks so quickly in a crisis.

We likely will never get to the core of things, but to ignore the coincidence that China's primary (maybe only) viral testing lab was in the same city where the virus started would be foolish. My thought would be that the Chinese had a handle on how to fix the problem because they were working on it in the first place, but they'll never admit to that because to do so would be to admit carelessness and maybe lack of ethical behavior.
 
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#2,361
#2,361
AM64 said:
And the testing - who was tested when and who wasn't, the quality and quantity of tests, the extreme time lag on test results really screw up the statistics. In addition the inaccuracy/inefficiency in testing really inhibited the means to isolate people and to minimize use of facilities, equipment, and expendable materials - all that doubtlessly led to more infections and further stressed the healthcare system. The Chinese are to blame for being less than forthcoming about the virus, the CDC is very much at blame for trying to keep everything in house with inadequate resources to do so, and providers (primarily hospitals) share blame for failure to maintain stocks of protective equipment that would be necessary during times like these - FEMA and other similar agencies should never have to dig into stocks so quickly in a crisis.

We likely will never get to the core of things, but to ignore the coincidence that China's primary (maybe only) viral testing lab was in the same city where the virus started would be foolish. My thought would be that the Chinese had a handle on how to fix the problem because they were working on it in the first place, but they'll never admit to that because to do so would be to admit carelessness and maybe lack of ethical behavior.
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Agree on all points. The Chinese will never come clean on this and had they been open from the start it’s arguable the pandemic could have been prevented. Abbott’s new point of use test with near instant results should help close the knowledge gap on where this thing is going to hit hardest next.
 
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#2,362
#2,362
RavinDave said:
Agree on all points. The Chinese will never come clean on this and had they been open from the start it’s arguable the pandemic could have been prevented. Abbott’s new point of use test with near instant results should help close the knowledge gap on where this thing is going to hit hardest next.
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China should get nuked over this.
 
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#2,363
#2,363
VolunteerHillbilly said:
Eventually, we will have to reopen for business and it will probably happen before there is any sure-fire vaccine or cure. There are a lot of people in the workforce who should have retired by now but felt like they couldn't due to the hits they took in 2008. Those people will soon have a very difficult choice to face. A lot of those people have a fixed income, just not enough to maintain their standard of living where they are. If those people could be encouraged to relocate to isolated, economically distressed small towns it could be a win/win. The retirees would have a lower overhead and they would bring a stream of revenue into areas that have very little.
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With the advances we've made in communication and logistics, there is just no real reason put millions or hundreds of thousands of people in pest holes. Decentralization would be very much a win win, but it's unlikely to happen - the trend seems to be just the opposite. I can't figure out if it's fear that drives people together or the individual fear of being alone - some people obviously have some kind of herd mentality.
 
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#2,364
#2,364
xavierbballfan said:
I have quoted models and not made any predictions myself as I am not an epidemiologist so please do not state that I have "whiffed" on predictions that I have not made. Being aggressive doesn't make you right.

I have argued about whether the Imperial college of London model is incorrect and that it has been changed and defended the position that I have not seen the base model change. I have asked multiple times for a reference that this has been changed and am still waiting for any information that indicates this. I will always change my opinions based on higher quality information.

I also did not say that the interventions do not have an economic impact.

You can try to belittle things that do not align with what you want to be true but that will not make it a reality.

The interventions are clearly having an impact on the economy which is something that is concerning to real people in a real way, not something to be diminished. I just want a more constructive discussion where those who oppose the interventions cite economic data for how much intervention they think would be necessary and why they think that justifies the impact that it is projected to have on our society from a medical standpoint (hospitalization, morbidity, mortality). There is no reality where we ignored the virus, changed nothing, and the economy continued to hum along at its previous pace. If you want to make an economic argument I would be interested to hear it as long as it is based on data rather than anecdotes and insults.
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Expert Who Inspired Lockdown Says Britain’s Health System Will Now Cope
 
#2,365
#2,365
VolNExile said:
SIAP

How to handle groceries (I think this also applies to shipments coming to your house). He made a mistake on the video about virus on cardboard: it is 24 hours, not one hour.

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When I went out for groceries, I didn't put -non-refrigerated stuff away. My wife said "what's this"; I told her they were in quarantine. Her cookies came out well before their time, and she wasn't buying it on the other stuff either.
 
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#2,368
#2,368
Prisma Health, SC’s largest healthcare system, is now furloughing employees. In the last 2 weeks, they’ve seen a 77% drop in elective cases and a 40% drop in physician office appointments.
 
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#2,371
#2,371
Well, we did hit 123,000+ cases and 2,202 deaths in the US after just breaking 100,000 early yesterday afternoon.
 
#2,372
#2,372
JacketVol said:
Expert Who Inspired Lockdown Says Britain’s Health System Will Now Cope
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Thank you for the reply. I read through the article you have linked to and it states that the change in expected mortalities is a direct result of the social distancing measures put in place, rather than a change to the model itself as a result of more being infected than previously believed.

According to the article from The Daily Beast (Expert Who Inspired Lockdown Says Britain’s Health System Will Now Cope):

"Ferguson said he now believes the number of fatalities in Britain could be well below the 20,000 he previously forecast. He told the BBC Today program on Thursday: “With the lockdown now in place, those numbers are going to start to plateau.”

He clarified the confusion himself:


@neil_ferguson
Mar 26

1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson


2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.

4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
 
#2,374
#2,374
xavierbballfan said:
Thank you for the reply. I read through the article you have linked to and it states that the change in expected mortalities is a direct result of the social distancing measures put in place, rather than a change to the model itself as a result of more being infected than previously believed.

According to the article from The Daily Beast (Expert Who Inspired Lockdown Says Britain’s Health System Will Now Cope):

"Ferguson said he now believes the number of fatalities in Britain could be well below the 20,000 he previously forecast. He told the BBC Today program on Thursday: “With the lockdown now in place, those numbers are going to start to plateau.”

He clarified the confusion himself:
@neil_ferguson
Mar 26

1/4 - I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19.


2/4 -This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged.

3/4 - My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place.

4/4 - Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).
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Sounds like he created an astronomical number..remember no other country has even reached a 1/1000 infection/population rate and then takes credit because two of the world's biggest economies shut down for being wrong about the casualties
 
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#2,375
#2,375
VolnJC said:
Sounds like he created an astronomical number..remember no other country has even reached a 1/1000 infection/population rate and then takes credit because two of the world's biggest economies shut down for being wrong about the casualties
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A person is being naive if they dont believe the possibility exists that he was wrong and realizes to just admit that would be writing his own suicide note. He has to .....ah yes, cough ,cough, and keep doing that social distancing...that is what kept us from that 500,000.
 
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