My tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and projections.
3/1 = 7
3/5 = 63
3/10 = 290
3/15 = 737
3/20 = 5,594
3/25 = 13,335
3/26 = 17,244 (16,650 median predicted)
Coronavirus Update (Live): 550,536 Cases and 24,903 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Predicted New Case Ranges Today
3/27 17,650 - 21,600
3/28 21,200 - 25,900
3/29 25,150 - 30,750
3/30 29,000 - 35,400
3/31 33,500 - 41,000
4/1 38,200 - 46,800
Predicted new Case Ranges 3/26
3/27 17,400 - 21,300
3/28 20,900 - 25,500
3/29 24,900 - 30,500
3/30 29,200 - 35,700
3/31 34,300 - 42,000
4/1 40,000 - 49,000
Yesterday's number was bigger than we'd hope but the rate of transmission seems to have fallen, so it is a bit of a wash. There is enough data now to see that we are dropping the rate consistently over the last week, and a falling rate is reflected in my predictions, but it is not falling fast enough. Likely cause: New York has cut transmission rates, but they accelerating in some other states.
Still, a few weeks ago we were headed toward 100,000 plus daily cases by April 1st. That is now highly unlikely unless the transmission rate drop reverses in the coming days.
A key factor is testing availability, and that will need to be watched to see if newly developed testing capacity can keep up if the numbers of new cases.
Testing data resource:
The COVID Tracking Project
They track 82,234 positive out of 540,252 tests so far.
Stay safe out there.
