Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[PEPPERJAX]

Mortality rate... focus on the mortality rate. If we can see it hovering around 1%, we will know how much we really need to be concerned.

The number of infections must be slowed down even with a 1% mortality rate. Hopefully, the rate does not get out of control.

 

[TennTradition]

Still using Italy as my worst case barometer.

At .001 infection rate with .10 mortality rate.

If we copy that over 300,000,000 Americans, I get 30,000 deaths.

Just looking for honest debate. What am I doing wrong here?

I think the problem is your infection rate. Unless we get really good at quarantines we will very likely exceed 300,000 cases. If we double every three days we’ll be at near that count by the middle of next week.

 

[Vol737]

Those numbers are not worth reporting because they're worthless. Can you state with any certainty how many people are really infected? If the answer is no then you don't have the necessary information in order to give us a mortality rate

True. These are just the reported/known cases versus # of deaths. I think most suspect there are more cases that may never be reported that lower the mortality rate.

 

[happy-go_vol]

Great article on swine flu and the media.

Which Virus Is More Dangerous? - Frontpagemag

 

[allvol123]

I think the problem is your infection rate. Unless we get really good at quarantines we will very likely exceed 300,000 cases. If we double every three days we’ll be at near that count by the middle of next week.

I can buy that. But also believe my estimated mortality rate is exceedlingy high and unlikely.

 

[NorthDallas40]

Cocaine Mitch throwing the Dems under the bus on TV now on the vote hang up. Cannot wait to hear Nans and Chuckie’s spin on this

 

[Stew Cook]

I'm not worked up in the least. I'm asking you questions to get an idea of what you meant by a couple of your statements. You seemed to poo-poo the comparison between "mandatory quarantine" and "false arrest/imprisonment/whatever". You then said that a mass uprising against that would be "the most ill-conceived uprising in history".

I'm asking questions to try to understand your stance. Is it that mandatory quarantine isn't the same as govt-enforced false arrest, and yet defying it would be inadvisable due to the massive response by the gov't that enacted the "quarantine"?

I'm not seeing a difference really... Again, it sort of reminds me of Hurricane/Tornado declarations. Am I being falsely arrested for walking through town because it's "unsafe" or because I may be looting. Think I've heard the excuse of "it puts an undue burden on Emergency Response personnel".

This is supposed to be worked out by the courts, as to whether it's constitutional. Has it ever been?

 

[lawgator1]

Cocaine Mitch throwing the Dems under the bus on TV now on the vote hang up. Cannot wait to hear Nans and Chuckie’s spin on this

I suspect it's a wee bit more complicated than he is acknowledging.

 

[happy-go_vol]

I can buy that. But also believe my estimated mortality rate is exceedlingy high and unlikely.

60 mil cases of swine flu in 2009-2010. Did we panic then?

 

[TennTradition]

Great article on swine flu and the media.

Which Virus Is More Dangerous? - Frontpagemag

That isn’t a great article. Swine flu had a lot of concern - I remember it at the time. A lot of it centered on media attention around deaths of children. We had 12,000 deaths over about a year.

Swine flu wound up having a mortality rate of 0.02%. Now I do believe with widespread testing that the mortality rate of CV will drop from the 2-3% numbers that were seen early. However, even using corrected (for age distribution) Princess Diamond numbers of .8% mortality rate, that is 40 times higher mortality rate for CV vs H1N1.

That is why you didn’t see the same response with H1N1.

 

[NorthDallas40]

I suspect it's a wee bit more complicated than he is acknowledging.

Not if the points he brought up are correct. The idiots are using this crisis to try and add stricter airline emission standards for example. If even half of the points he brought up are true the Dems are gonna get roasted.

 

[allvol123]

...

 

[volfanjustin]

Cocaine Mitch throwing the Dems under the bus on TV now on the vote hang up. Cannot wait to hear Nans and Chuckie’s spin on this

I have to admit I enjoy watching dems get blasted over this

 

[TennTradition]

I can buy that. But also believe my estimated mortality rate is exceedlingy high and unlikely.

Agree. I’m hopeful we won’t see anything like 10%. But we are likely to see a lot more than 300,000 cases.

 

[allvol123]

We Will Regret Not Taking the Economic Effects of Mass Quarantine More Seriously

 

[allvol123]

Agree. I’m hopeful we won’t see anything like 10%. But we are likely to see a lot more than 300,000 cases.

Would you venture a guess on total deaths?

 

[TennTradition]

Not if the points he brought up are correct. The idiots are using this crisis to try and add stricter airline emission standards for example. If even half of the points he brought up are true the Dems are gonna get roasted.

The Dems just need to fight for concessions around acceptable uses by corporations of this money (no stock buybacks for example, maybe no executive bonuses) and then move on quickly.

 

[happy-go_vol]

That isn’t a great article. Swine flu had a lot of concern - I remember it at the time. A lot of it centered on media attention around deaths of children. We had 12,000 deaths over about a year.

Swine flu wound up having a mortality rate of 0.02%. Now I do believe with widespread testing that the mortality rate of CV will drop from the 2-3% numbers that were seen early. However, even using corrected (for age distribution) Princess Diamond numbers of .8% mortality rate, that is 40 times higher mortality rate for CV vs H1N1.

That is why you didn’t see the same response with H1N1.

Not hind site, at the time there no media coverage or reactions compared to today. The media is driving this to damage the economy.

 

[TennTradition]

Would you venture a guess on total deaths?

Honestly my estimates wouldn’t be worth much. I think we could hit your 30,000 deaths number by mid-April if we don’t see rates start dropping.

 

[Mick]

Not if the points he brought up are correct. The idiots are using this crisis to try and add stricter airline emission standards for example. If even half of the points he brought up are true the Dems are gonna get roasted.

He is full of it as usual. He has never opened his mouth without trying to blame the dems. He is a mega douche.

 

[NorthDallas40]

now it’s Chuckie’s turn.

 

[hog88]

@hog88 , do you have a facility to make the stuff?

I have a 10 gallon still.

 

[allvol123]

Honestly my estimates wouldn’t be worth much. I think we could hit your 30,000 deaths number by mid-April if we don’t see rates start dropping.

But would you even consider say 50,000 probable?

 

[Orangeburst]

Not if the points he brought up are correct. The idiots are using this crisis to try and add stricter airline emission standards for example. If even half of the points he brought up are true the Dems are gonna get roasted.

I was complaining about this last night. They are voting on bills without any public review or text listing on the website. Pisses me off.

 

[TennTradition]

Not hind site, at the time there no media coverage or reactions compared to today. The media is driving this to damage the economy.

The media coverage was not like today you are correct. However I’m arguing it was different for a reason. The economy is tanking because we are going into massive quarantines that will cause widespread temporary unemployment and multiple percentage drops in GDP. We are going into those quarantines not because of the media but because our health officials are telling us it’s necessary to avoid the worst outcomes.

I personally question our willingness to continue this for long. I think we’ll end up running the experiment of just how bad it will look if we get back to something more normal within a few weeks.