Recruiting Forum Football Talk II

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#118,651
#118,651
JacketVol said:
Math doesn’t add up even using worse case ITALY so far. 3-4 months and 14k globally. It just doesn’t. Also, I do not think this 15 day pause is a strong corrective measure either. People will have this and never be in the numbers because they have no symptoms nor die either.
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Doubling rate is about 4 days in the US. That continues unabated until we start approaching herd immunity. At the current rate we'll be at 1M cases in 20 days.

The 15 day pause will significantly slow that doubling rate down. Significantly.
 
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#118,655
#118,655
Devo182 said:
Can't compare one to the other. The world took extreme measures to keep it that way.

The high estimate is if we did nothing (like we treat flu). Imagine Wuhan with zero quarantine and continued travel all over the world. Those are high estimates for the U.S., if we treated it like "it's just the flu".
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I never said to treat it just like the flu. However, 2-4 month quarantine to never leave your house isn’t even close to how we have ever treated anything and would be a disaster of a response from what harm it would cause.
 
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#118,658
#118,658
SSVol said:
Doubling rate is about 4 days in the US. That continues unabated until we start approaching herd immunity. At the current rate we'll be at 1M cases in 20 days.

The 15 day pause will significantly slow that doubling rate down. Significantly.
Click to expand...

never said to not do 15 days but 2-4 months is an over reaction and the math formula is not as simple as you are making it UNLESS you have a way to test every single American
 
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#118,662
#118,662
jackcrevol said:
some people have immunity to this...they think. its my understanding from reading that's how viruses work.

what they dont understand is the positive test AFTER symptoms are gone. lots not understood, like are there two strains - one more aggressive than other? Why elderly so much more impacted? Does quinine/zpack work? what about other anti virals?

Yeah Jake, flatten the curve. Troof.
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Uhh yes there are two strains.... Strain “S” which is the origin strain which is not aggressive and Strain “L” which is the aggressive strain. You can have both strains at the same time.
 
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#118,666
#118,666
SSVol said:
Doubling rate is about 4 days in the US. That continues unabated until we start approaching herd immunity. At the current rate we'll be at 1M cases in 20 days.

The 15 day pause will significantly slow that doubling rate down. Significantly.
Click to expand...
Where is 4 coming from? Hopefully it has slowed to that. It has been closer to 2.5 days recently. For instance, it finished at 19k at end of Friday. Nearing 33k right now. 2 week average was 34% growth per day.
 
#118,669
#118,669
Devo182 said:
Where is 4 coming from? Hopefully it has slowed to that. It has been closer to 2.5 days recently. For instance, it finished at 19k at end of Friday. Nearing 33k right now. 2 week average was 34% growth per day.
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I didn't want to be accused of being overly dramatic. ;)

I think it's longer than 2.5. Testing is just ramping up. Looks worse than it is.
 
#118,670
#118,670
SSVol said:
Of course they have, but it is well established that Korea pounced on this very early and very thoroughly vetted contacts in an effort stop the spread. Their efforts were obviously pretty good because their case rate dropped dramatically.

The other part of this argument is that deaths greatly lag positive cases. Deaths take as long as 8 weeks after symptom onset. We won't know the real number anywhere until active cases and new cases are both at zero. That's why I've been watching places with reducing new cases...they will give us the first glimpse on what the real mortality number is.

Even that may be irrelevant. Americans are much fatter than Germans and Koreans. Our numbers may vary greatly from other countries and even between states or regions.
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Dude. Population size allows Korea to do more quicker.

South Korea:
Population: 51,269,185
Area of Country: 38,691 mi²

U.S.A.:
Population: 331,002,651
Area of Country: 3.797 million mi²

You can not compare the US to Korea as far as testing goes. I am sorry. It is also ridiculous to think you can.
 
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#118,671
#118,671
cHiZzLeVOL said:
Dude. Population size allows Korea to do more quicker.

South Korea:
Population: 51,269,185
Area of Country: 38,691 mi²

U.S.A.:
Population: 331,002,651
Area of Country: 3.797 million mi²

You can not compare the US to Korea as far as testing goes. I am sorry. It is also ridiculous to think you can.
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Wut?
 
#118,673
#118,673
SSVol said:
I didn't want to be accused of being overly dramatic. ;)

I think it's longer than 2.5. Testing is just ramping up. Looks worse than it is.
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Maybe so. It may be relative either way (low testing, high testing) since it a comparison against itself. Either way, all these measures should really impact it soon. Can't continue forever. Hopefully we will peak this week.
 
#118,674
#118,674
SSVol said:
Wut?
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You were saying how South Korea has done such a great job tracking down all these cases and testing etc. and how the US is lagging behind.

Well the US is a much larger country. It is easier for South Korea to test more people and to stop the spread then it is a place like the US.
 
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