Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#17,102
#17,102
Hunerwadel said:
Yesterday on March 20 we had 5504 new cases. We only had 4956 total cases on the 16th.
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Bull ****. In all likelihood we had exponentially more than 4956 cases on the 16th. We probably passed that number in January. Confirmed cases is not total cases.

Everybody sitting in front of their TVs for a month isn’t going to get rid of this thing. It’s here to stay like any other seasonal illness and we need to start living like it.
 
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#17,103
#17,103
lawgator1 said:
Look at Italy, Spain, China.

Those of you blaming the media for telling people what this could do need here if we don't take harsh and extreme measures need to get a grip.

Don't let the refusal of others to acknowledge reality keep your head in the clouds, too.
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Again, playing with numbers. Look at the per capita cases, not total cases. Stop being a sheep.
 
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#17,109
#17,109
hog88 said:
I agree, I would bet that if we tested everyone in the country the number of positives would be close to 100k. If there was a way to test to see if people had it and got over it the number would be even higher.
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Are you of the mindset that it’s been here since late fall/early winter and everyone is overreacting?
 
#17,111
#17,111
hog88 said:
I agree, I would bet that if we tested everyone in the country the number of positives would be close to 100k. If there was a way to test to see if people had it and got over it the number would be even higher.
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Everyone just needs to assume they have it, and show responsibility accordingly.
 
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#17,112
#17,112
37L1 said:
I woke up today, depressed.

But then I thought, "At least I woke up." I can work on that depression thing.
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The feeling of depression didn't really hit me until I thought about the people around me and their level of cognitive dissonance.

A lot of people are either wanting the govt to do whatever it takes (liberals around me) or think that things will be just fine once the virus blows over (conservatives around me).
 
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#17,113
#17,113
My tracking of actual daily new COVID-19 cases in U.S. and 5 day projections.
3/1 = 7
3/5 = 63
3/10 = 290
3/15 = 737
3/18 = 2848
3/19 = 4530
3/20 = 5594 (5522 was the predicted median)
3/21 = 4824 (6771 was the predicted median so hopefully we are seeing a rate fall)
3/22 = 9339 (9650 median prediction)

The pessimistic version of my model has been in line with the new daily numbers over the last few days because about 20-30% of the "new" cases are likely people who have been sick but are just now getting tested. Having a hot spot in our most populous city, and a variation in strategies between states and metropolitan areas creates a lot of variability too. The virus has a stable transmission rate, though.

I will make this model more responsive to changes in the transmission rate and I expect it will converge with the "true new case" numbers in a few days. In either case, very large numbers of new daily cases might be unavoidable at this point.

Predicted New Case Ranges
3/23 12,200 - 14,900
3/24 17,000 - 20,800
3/25 23,600 - 28,800

Watching to see if the decrease in transmission from current efforts to distance show up. Once these numbers start to be too high, we will know the transmission curve is bending significantly faster.

Stay safe out there.
 
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#17,116
#17,116
508mikey said:
A lot of people are going to be socially isolated. Things that were important for them, like sports games, which feed a sense of solidarity, are going to go away. So it would not be an unreasonable prediction that suicide rates and drinking and drug overdose would go up during this pandemic. The big question, of course, is how long people will put up with that.
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Until they kill themselves.
 
#17,117
#17,117
37L1 said:
More testing. Dr. Birx said that would be the case.
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It takes about three days to get the test results back. All from the drive throughs and most from Dr's offices have to be sent to an outside lab. Most test kits have just been distributed.
 
#17,119
#17,119
lawgator1 said:
There are 286,000 confirmed cases.

12,000 deaths.

94,000 recovered.


You think those are good?
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I think it’s completely normal and no different from any other seasonal illness when you assume that 286K confirmed cases and 94K recovered are both off by a couple orders of magnitude in reality.
 
#17,121
#17,121
headhunter15 said:
Have prayed each night thank God for waking me up each day. I know this virus is serious and bad, but I blame some of this nightmare on both sides of the media. Everything is fear, fear, fear. Not sure they want America to come out of this and get back to normal.
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The media wasn't in control of our preparations or lack thereof, was it?
 
#17,123
#17,123
JCP201 said:
All I'm saying is that they are going to eventually do this anyway. You know it's true. Better now when the virus hasn't spread everywhere and it can be over with sooner. If not, then we can let it go with half ass measures like now, and then have to shut it down like Italy when it's too late. We head into the fall with nothing changed.
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I’m not buying it’s needed now I’m not saying our dumbass leaders won’t call for it
 
#17,124
#17,124
lawgator1 said:
So all the scientists and doctors are wrong? This is just a bad flu?
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I’m saying going by the confirmed cases is the not the real story. There are probably hundreds of 1000’s of cases and recoveries already in the U.S. right now. The Flu killed about 20,000 people this year alone in the U.S., out of 50 million+ that got it. Right now we aren’t even coming close to that number. Living a normal life won’t even have us approach those numbers.

Even doctors and scientists are saying they expect the death rate to plummet once testing is widely available. Honestly ask yourself what the numbers would look like if testing were just as available as it is for the Flu right now.

The reason medical facilities are overwhelmed is anytime somebody gets a runny nose the media has them so scared they go to the ER.

Stop the media panic, stop quoting numbers without any context, and give people real information for risk factors and symptoms and this probably isn’t as big a deal. We certainly wouldn’t be closing everything down.
 
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#17,125
#17,125
allvol123 said:
Why look at them but not Germany, Israel, etc?
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Number of coronavirus cases in Israel surges to 883, with 15 in serious condition

As the highly contagious coronavirus spreads around the world, Israel and the Palestinians struggle to contain a local outbreak that has virtually halted daily life and led to tens of thousands of people entering quarantine.
Bypassing the necessary approval from the Knesset, the government approved the tracking of cellphones by the Shin Bet security service in order to inform people who unwittingly came in contact with confirmed coronavirus patients.
 
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