2020 Primaries

#5,589
#5,589
1972 Grad said:
This virus may be how the Dems replace Joe at the convention. The first thing they had to do was stop Bernie. They have done that. Now, they need a candidate with some brain function. Maybe Joe gets sick and has to drop out at the last minute.
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Lol. You people are just silly.
 
#5,592
#5,592
RavinDave said:
Don’t sleep on Kamala.
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I recall in the aftermath of the 2016 election people talking about which groups didn’t show up at the voting booth. Blacks especially got a bum rap for supposedly not showing up in the same numbers they did for Obama in 2012. Clinton actually got essentially the same number of votes that Obama received in 2012 but Trump got 2 million more votes than Romney and about 5.5 million more voters went for a 3rd party compared to 2012. The total vote count for all candidates in 2016 was almost 7.6 million higher than 2012.

So where did Clinton lose or where did Trump win? I’ve spent some time studying the exit polls for both elections and while I focused more on the age and race brackets that’s not a straight forward comparison since everyone is 4 years older in 2016 so the composition of the brackets are always changing to some degree from election to election. Still, the exit polls suggest that there was 2.2 million more Latino votes in 2016 than 2012. There was 1.6 million more black votes in 2016 and there was slightly more than an additional 1.0 million votes in the “all others” category for 2016. There was almost 3 million more white voters in 2016 compared to 2012.

Clinton won almost 800 thousand of the additional Latino voters while Trump picked up over 750 thousand of the additional Latino vote. The other 644 thousand went for a 3rd party. For Blacks, Clinton added almost 750 thousand to the Obama totals, Trump added 420 thousand Black votes to the Romney totals, and another 420 thousand went for a 3rd party. In the “all others” category, Clinton added 260 thousand to Obama’s numbers while Trump added almost 330 thousand to Romney’s numbers. 472 thousand of the additional “all others” vote went to 3rd parties.

Clinton won almost 1.8 million less white votes in 2016 compared to Obama 2012. Trump actually only won a little over 477 thousand more white votes than Romney. Over 4 million additional white voters in 2016 voted 3rd party compared to 2012.

The most interesting thing the exit polls seem to show is that while Clinton won 1.8 million more “People of Color” votes than Obama, she lost almost exactly that same amount of White voters. They didn’t vote for Trump, only 477 thousand out of 1.8 million. Trump won 1.5 million more “People of Color” votes than Romney and that is what really scares the left.

I think most of the 4+ million white voters that went 3rd party in 2016 will mostly probably go back to the two major parties in 2020, either that or stay home. I think it’s too early to say how the crisis is going to effect the campaigns this fall. I think Trump’s declaration that he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose any voters is recognition of a phenomenon that this is not really about Trump but rather what or who he represents, anti-establishment.

It’s beginning to look to me like Joe Biden is running the John McCain race of 2008. I think he seems desperate and I don’t think a Sara Palin sort of pick is going to help him any more than it did John McCain. jmo.

The most bizarre narrative we’ve had for a number of election cycles now is that we have changing demographics and yet election after election well over half of the Democratic party vote is White. Now why the hell would you dismiss the majority block in your coalition if you knew what you were doing? Clinton lost and lost where it counts in the Electoral College because she lost 1.8 million white votes from the Obama coalition and obviously where those voters were outstripped the increase in the changing demographics vote in those areas. Changing demographics hasn’t really reached the Midwest to the degree it’s taken over states like California and other typically blue states.

I think the only way for Joe Biden to win is for Trump to lose. Seriously. I don't think many people are voting for Joe Biden; they're voting against Trump. I think that could be a mistake. People I think tend to be more motivated to vote for something/someone than against something/someone. jmo.
 
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#5,593
#5,593
bnhunt said:
Typical Republican playbook. Don't address the content of the article, just insult the source.
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Because the source is known to be a huge left leaning , subject spinning , propaganda machine . Vox intentionally misquotes , misrepresents , and “ massages “ the truth frequently. It’s fun to watch you talk about FOX watchers as not knowing the truth because , well FOX , then try to trot out a VOX article . Everybody on here knows about VOX .
 
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#5,594
#5,594
ChattaTNVol said:
I recall in the aftermath of the 2016 election people talking about which groups didn’t show up at the voting booth. Blacks especially got a bum rap for supposedly not showing up in the same numbers they did for Obama in 2012. Clinton actually got essentially the same number of votes that Obama received in 2012 but Trump got 2 million more votes than Romney and about 5.5 million more voters went for a 3rd party compared to 2012. The total vote count for all candidates in 2016 was almost 7.6 million higher than 2012.

So where did Clinton lose or where did Trump win? I’ve spent some time studying the exit polls for both elections and while I focused more on the age and race brackets that’s not a straight forward comparison since everyone is 4 years older in 2016 so the composition of the brackets are always changing to some degree from election to election. Still, the exit polls suggest that there was 2.2 million more Latino votes in 2016 than 2012. There was 1.6 million more black votes in 2016 and there was slightly more than an additional 1.0 million votes in the “all others” category for 2016. There was almost 3 million more white voters in 2016 compared to 2012.

Clinton won almost 800 thousand of the additional Latino voters while Trump picked up over 750 thousand of the additional Latino vote. The other 644 thousand went for a 3rd party. For Blacks, Clinton added almost 750 thousand to the Obama totals, Trump added 420 thousand Black votes to the Romney totals, and another 420 thousand went for a 3rd party. In the “all others” category, Clinton added 260 thousand to Obama’s numbers while Trump added almost 330 thousand to Romney’s numbers. 472 thousand of the additional “all others” vote went to 3rd parties.

Clinton won almost 1.8 million less white votes in 2016 compared to Obama 2012. Trump actually only won a little over 477 thousand more white votes than Romney. Over 4 million additional white voters in 2016 voted 3rd party compared to 2012.

The most interesting thing the exit polls seem to show is that while Clinton won 1.8 million more “People of Color” votes than Obama, she lost almost exactly that same amount of White voters. They didn’t vote for Trump, only 477 thousand out of 1.8 million. Trump won 1.5 million more “People of Color” votes than Romney and that is what really scares the left.

I think most of the 4+ million white voters that went 3rd party in 2016 will mostly probably go back to the two major parties in 2020, either that or stay home. I think it’s too early to say how the crisis is going to effect the campaigns this fall. I think Trump’s declaration that he could shoot someone on 5th avenue and not lose any voters is recognition of a phenomenon that this is not really about Trump but rather what or who he represents, anti-establishment.

It’s beginning to look to me like Joe Biden is running the John McCain race of 2008. I think he seems desperate and I don’t think a Sara Palin sort of pick is going to help him any more than it did John McCain. jmo.

The most bizarre narrative we’ve had for a number of election cycles now is that we have changing demographics and yet election after election well over half of the Democratic party vote is White. Now why the hell would you dismiss the majority block in your coalition if you knew what you were doing? Clinton lost and lost where it counts in the Electoral College because she lost 1.8 million white votes from the Obama coalition and obviously where those voters were outstripped the increase in the changing demographics vote in those areas. Changing demographics hasn’t really reached the Midwest to the degree it’s taken over states like California and other typically blue states.

I think the only way for Joe Biden to win is for Trump to lose. Seriously. I don't think many people are voting for Joe Biden; they're voting against Trump. I think that could be a mistake. People I think tend to be more motivated to vote for something/someone than against something/someone. jmo.
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So you’re saying Amy is a smarter choice as running mate than Kamala, or it won’t matter?
 
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