UT cancels classes

#276
#276
OK, what we've established is that a substantial number of people think it's a serious health crisis and a substantial number of people think it isn't. Regardless of your position, there are going to be huge changes in lifestyle. You're just going to have to accept that.

First, no sports, nothing on tv or in person. Looks like you're not even going to be able to look for foreign soccer or Australian Rules football. I mean not even sumo wrestling. I guess ESPN can fill the time with replays of classic games. Of course, that doesn't do much for those people who follow sports for the betting action. And honestly it's disturbing to watch basketball or tennis from the 60's or 70's, I mean the men wore incredibly short shorts.

Believe or not we had planned and paid for a Disneyworld trip for our then 6 year old daughter for the week after 9/11. We went through with it (I figured security would be airtight.) It was great, no crowds anywhere. I'm talking 46 people on the wide body from Atlanta to Orlando. I said the next time there's a national crisis I'm going back, but word is Disneyland is closed and it's only time until they do the same in Orlando.

This thing will hit Tennessee eventually. Will be interesting to see what restrictions come into play.

I figure I'll be catching up on miniseries I haven't followed before. I quit watching Walking Dead, maybe I'll catch up on that. Haven't started on the Mandalorian (or however that's spelled).

Swinger sex parties are probably out, at my age that would probably kill me before the virus would. Same is true for drinking binges, hangovers are even more brutal as you get older.

Unfortunately, I can work from home. You should have seen the look on my assistant's face when I told her management had worked out the tech issues so as to allow her to log-in and work from home. Not happy. She had to know: no work, no pay.

Thoughts?
 
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#280
#280
Aerie Vol said:
Could you please source from whence you got the "doubling every 4 days" statistic?

worldometers.info states there were 106000 on March 7 and on March 11 (4 days later) there were 126000. Now, I'm unhappy there was an increase of 20K in 4 days, but that is in no way a doubling. Four days before, on March 3, it was at 93000. This is not doubling.
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You do realize in the US that there is a testing problem. We don’t even know the number of cases yet.
 
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#281
#281
TN_Transplant said:
No, I don't believe so. My original numbers from Hubei are a lot less scary. Using only the numbers from the Diamond Princess, 3500 total, 700 infections (yes, I rounded) that gives you a 20% infection rate. With the 7 deaths, that gave a 2.11% fatality rate. Translate those numbers to the U.S. general population: 300 million, 20% infection rate = 60 million sick, of those 60 million, 2.11% fatality rate = 1,266,000 dead.

My original estimate based on Hubei was roughly 20,000 to 25,000 deaths, much more reasonable.
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I hope this string stays up for the next 6 months-we shall see who was correct. There can be no doubt that the wooohooohan virus is being politicized. We only need to look back to the last admin. to see how a more serious health emergency was handled, and how the politicos reacted. Very little is being said regarding how the red Chinese handled the outbreak, after 5,000,000 people came and went, they finally admitted they had a problem, and were taking strong measures, blah, blah... They refused to allow our CDC to goto woohoohan, the red Chinese have even threated to block the sale of antibiotics/chems necessary for production to the USA. That is just short of threatening the lives of Americans, yet the pro commies in our country continue to coddle the red Chinese.
 
#285
#285
GoVolunteers said:
Really? Because my wife’s ER had a 22 hour wait today for basic cases.
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Is this ER in Tennessee? Of the millions of test kits sent out by the Federal Govt. why isn't her ER getting enough kits? We should all be alarmed, what is the name of this Hospital, so we can call our Congressional offices and demand they get more kits. BTW, during the 22 hours how many new cases were ID'd? There must have been a lot of new cases-and this is just one ER, I guess we are getting hundred if not thousands of new cases ever day, in Tennessee alone.
 
#286
#286
We don’t live in Tennessee. I will just say this. I have an MBA and a Masters in Political Science... I am not a health expert. When my wife said she is worried then I am going with her as a medical professional over FOX, CNN, and any other news source.
 
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#287
#287
GoVolunteers said:
We don’t live in Tennessee. I will just say this. I have an MBA and a Masters in Political Science... I am not a health expert. When my wife said she is worried then I am going with her as a medical professional over FOX, CNN, and any other news source.
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I guess you don't know the numbers, that's okay. But based on your wife's ER (just one ER of thousands) I'm guessing there are 10s of thousands of new cases every 24 hours! Even though you don't live in TN, what is the name of the hospital, I'll call their congressman-as I'm sure many others will do also-to find out, of the millions of test kits that have been sent out, why her ER isn't getting what they need.
 
#288
#288
I40flyer said:
I guess you don't know the numbers, that's okay. But based on your wife's ER (just one ER of thousands) I'm guessing there are 10s of thousands of new cases every 24 hours! Even though you don't live in TN, what is the name of the hospital, I'll call their congressman-as I'm sure many others will do also-to find out, of the millions of test kits that have been sent out, why her ER isn't getting what they need.
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All congress is keenly aware of the testing problem as both chambers where briefed today by CDC on testing shortfalls. Both parties are disappointed with where we stand on testing.
 
#289
#289
GoVolunteers said:
All congress is keenly aware of the testing problem as both chambers where briefed today by CDC on testing shortfalls. Both parties are disappointed with where we stand on testing.
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It's nuts that our testing has been so limited.
 
#290
#290
Illinoisvolfan2 said:
25 total cases in the state of Illinois. That many people get shot over a weekend in Chicago all the time.
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I expect the real numbers are more than 25. Expect those numbers to go up exponentially every day in the next week and beyond if the same pattern continues as in other states.
 
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#291
#291
WBO said:
OK, what we've established is that a substantial number of people think it's a serious health crisis and a substantial number of people think it isn't. Regardless of your position, there are going to be huge changes in lifestyle. You're just going to have to accept that.

First, no sports, nothing on tv or in person. Looks like you're not even going to be able to look for foreign soccer or Australian Rules football. I mean not even sumo wrestling. I guess ESPN can fill the time with replays of classic games. Of course, that doesn't do much for those people who follow sports for the betting action. And honestly it's disturbing to watch basketball or tennis from the 60's or 70's, I mean the men wore incredibly short shorts.

Believe or not we had planned and paid for a Disneyworld trip for our then 6 year old daughter for the week after 9/11. We went through with it (I figured security would be airtight.) It was great, no crowds anywhere. I'm talking 46 people on the wide body from Atlanta to Orlando. I said the next time there's a national crisis I'm going back, but word is Disneyland is closed and it's only time until they do the same in Orlando.

This thing will hit Tennessee eventually. Will be interesting to see what restrictions come into play.

I figure I'll be catching up on miniseries I haven't followed before. I quit watching Walking Dead, maybe I'll catch up on that. Haven't started on the Mandalorian (or however that's spelled).

Swinger sex parties are probably out, at my age that would probably kill me before the virus would. Same is true for drinking binges, hangovers are even more brutal as you get older.

Unfortunately, I can work from home. You should have seen the look on my assistant's face when I told her management had worked out the tech issues so as to allow her to log-in and work from home. Not happy. She had to know: no work, no pay.

Thoughts?
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I always felt I could run faster and had more stamina when I wore the short shorts than I can do now. The 30/40 years difference in age has nothing to do with it. It’s because the shorts were lighter in weight.
😜
 
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#292
#292
With the shortage of tests...thats why the its getting blown out of proportion...when the dust settle i believe it will end up similair to the flu..slightly higher mortality rate..probably .7 to 1% and most of those will have other medical issues and or elderly...
but the recovery of the economy could be devastating
 
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#293
#293
TN_Transplant said:
Because they are numbers provided by Johns Hopkins, and not picked out of thin air.

Edit: But since you wish to look at the Diamond Princess, let's look at it. Here's what Johns Hopkins says in relation to how they have counted that data; "Note: All cases of COVID-19 in repatriated US citizens from the Diamond Princess are grouped together, and their location is currently designated at the ship’s port location off the coast of Japan. These individuals have been assigned to various quarantine locations (in military bases and hospitals) around the US. This grouping is consistent with the CDC. "

So, if we drill down to it:

View attachment 265915

So, with 696 confirmed cases, 364 still active, 7 deaths, that puts it at 2.11% mortality rate. Discounted the 364 active, as the previous example. But that pushes the error rate to +/- 1.1% so rate could be as high as 3.21%. I would caution that the larger sample rate from Hubei is still better example. There are another 46 active accounted for under another slide, but all of those are still active.

Also, people from cruise ships, although released are still beginning to test positive: Two people from Forsyth County have tested positive for novel coronavirus

From the article: "The couple from Forsyth County was on a cruise where other travelers tested positive."

Also, here's the link to Johns Hopkins if you missed it from earlier in the thread: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
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I can hardly fathom the mental gymnastics required to reach the conclusions you post above. 700 people sick, 7 dead. A pre-algebra seventh grader knows that is a 1% rate. However, you seem confident it's a good idea to only consider those "dead or healed" as the sample size. Therefore 2.1% of the dead or recovered died!!!!! Oh noes!!!! If you can't tell, I'm a little pissed. Please accept my apologies for my tone. I just dropped $330 on groceries I didn't need because "the shelves are gonna be bare if we don't go now" said the bosslady.

Anyway, you then proceed to apply some magic margin of error of 1.1 percent so as to reach the sum of 3.2. There are not margins of error in this experiment. You dead, or you ain't. I would also like to know why the other half of the parties are still listed as not recovered some 4 weeks after they contracted the virus. I posit they are all healed and the data simply hasn't been updated. Anyone on here doubt that if one more died, the 7 would be instantly updated? Me neither.

I consider my numbers still un-refuted.
 
#297
#297
sjt18 said:
Not in question. But where do you draw the line?

In 2017-2018, the CDC estimated that 61,000 people in the US died from the flu... and believes that number to be understated. About 85% of those who die of the flu are over 65 with a significant % of the rest being very young. So did we cancel school or the NCAA tournament because someone might catch the flu, give it to someone else, who gives it to someone else, who happens to visit a nursing home? No.

The swine flu was both more widespread and deadly than Covid. I don't recall this kind of media fostered panic.

This was a political play by the media and left that has now gotten out of hand. They wanted to create a narrative and instead got a panic. Now everyone is afraid of being the one who can be accused of letting it spread. Unless you are prepared to live in fear like this forever... it is going to spread.
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I appreciate the feedback but I really find it to be a stretch of it being a political agenda. Watching early info come out of Wuhan on a limited basis has had many, many medical professionals genuinely concerned from the beginning. Use common sense, wash your hands, limit exposure, and wait. It will be apparent in a week or so on how bad it will get, but I haven’t been missing work. Comparison to other diseases at this point is meaningless as it is still in its early phases.
 
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#298
#298
pimo1 said:
Exhibit A of how to lie with numbers. At a glance you make a very strong point. but the 2 graphs are not apples to apples and tell different stories. if you are over 60 covid is a big deal if you're not it definitely is exactly as dangerous tas the flu. At the same time in the flu graph they hide the numbers because there are a lot more people between 65-70 than 70+ by adding everything 65+ in one bar they suppress the numbers.

Break it down like this If I have 4 groups of people A had 10000 B has 1000 C has 100 and D has 10. If 2 people die in each group im looking at a chart that shows A 0.02% B 0.2% C 2%D 20% and if I combine them I come up with a bar that shows 0.08%. yes its dangerous to people over a certain age but again if they spread that .83% they show for the flu from 65+ into 60-69 70-79 and 80+ those numbers would rise a lot in those last 2 categories also by a huge amount
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Oh boy, you did not do good with numbers class (Mathematics) , did you ? You can look at the data and see in all categories COVID has 10x higher mortality rate, no matter how you bin it. Binning was part of basic algebra man.
 
#299
#299
sjt18 said:
Not in question. But where do you draw the line?

In 2017-2018, the CDC estimated that 61,000 people in the US died from the flu... and believes that number to be understated. About 85% of those who die of the flu are over 65 with a significant % of the rest being very young. So did we cancel school or the NCAA tournament because someone might catch the flu, give it to someone else, who gives it to someone else, who happens to visit a nursing home? No.

The swine flu was both more widespread and deadly than Covid. I don't recall this kind of media fostered panic.

This was a political play by the media and left that has now gotten out of hand. They wanted to create a narrative and instead got a panic. Now everyone is afraid of being the one who can be accused of letting it spread. Unless you are prepared to live in fear like this forever... it is going to spread.
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Respectfully, schools get closed fairly often due to influenza outbreak. Since you mentioned the CDC here are their recommendations re: such:

Questions and Answers about CDC Guidance for State and Local Public Health Officials and School Administrators for School (K-12) Responses to Influenza during the 2009-2010 School Year

"Q. How will the decision be made to dismiss schools? The decision to dismiss students will be made at the community level. School officials should work closely with their local and state public health and government officials to make sound decisions, based on local conditions. The decision should consider the number and severity of cases in an outbreak (looking at national, regional, and local data), the risks of flu spread and benefits of dismissal, the problems that school dismissal can cause for families and communities, and different types of dismissal (selective, reactive, and preemptive). CDC may recommend preemptive dismissals based on information that the outbreak is becoming more severe. An increase in flu spread without an impact on disease outcomes will not lead to the use of preemptive dismissals in most cases. "
 
#300
#300
Aerie Vol said:
I have no idea what is going on in China now, nor do I think we have an accurate picture of what has ever been going there throughout this process. They have complete control of their media.

I further don't fully understand the extent of what is going on in Italy.

But those things are irrelevant. I'm staring at a thermometer which clearly states the temperature is 85. My phone weather app concurs. However, a dude just walked by in a parka so I'm really worried I may die of hypothermia dressed only in my shorts and t-shirt.

Your assertion is: "People are panicking, even governments, so this has to be bad."

My numbers don't lie. They are irrefutable. Refute them if you can. 1% died on the cruise. All of them in the at-risk group.

Enjoy the t-shirt. Unless you're cold natured, then don the parka. Or better yet, self-isolate, which is what I would do if I was at risk.
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I think you misinterpret what I was saying in response to your post. I agree totally with what you are putting forth. What I think is "bad" is the panic that is being generated. (a prime example is the "run of toilet paper") If this one reaction to the illness and the government/public response to it is a harbinger of things to come, well the illness will be forgotten in the depression it spawns. I like you say, let's hold on and slow down. As with our football program, time is needed to produce facts and progress.
 
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