Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#7,752
#7,752
Rickyvol77 said:
Latest official word from CDC/DHS/CISA is that everything is under control
938 infected in US, 29 deaths (almost all 80 yrs+)
The big worry is panic keeping people from donating blood and such
Click to expand...

Whew! Good thing we cancelled those basketball tournaments.
 
#7,753
#7,753
Rickyvol77 said:
Latest official word from CDC/DHS/CISA is that everything is under control
938 infected in US, 29 deaths (almost all 80 yrs+)
The big worry is panic keeping people from donating blood and such
Click to expand...

Do you have a link to that? I'm thinking that anyone stating that it is under control without enough testing to give a substantive sample, seems a bit dubious.
 
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#7,754
#7,754
volbeast33 said:
The leading authority said probably which means he is guessing based on available..... he also states he doesn’t know how many people might have the virus and it went unreported.
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Orange_Crush said:
So you are passing along appeals to authority fallacies.

I am quoting two things that they are saying and asking a question. Try to follow.
(1) The mortality rate is x.
(2) We don't know how many people are infected.

Mortality rate is the % of deaths per number infected.

The math breaks down.

You blindly repeated the "10x more deadly claim" without thinking to ask those questions. Now you just want to keep appealing to authority. Stop and think for yourself. We're leading you to water.
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I’m well aware that they haven’t nailed down how many are infected. These are the best estimates they can come up with.

So again - You think this is all a hoax? No big deal? Surely you can answer.
 
#7,757
#7,757
85SugarVol said:
I’m well aware that they haven’t nailed down how many are infected. These are the best estimates they can come up with.

So again - You think this is all a hoax? No big deal? Surely you can answer.
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Yes, I think it’s not a big deal but definitely not a hoax.
 
#7,759
#7,759
Stew Cook said:
Do you have a link to that? I'm thinking that anyone stating that it is under control without enough testing to give a substantive sample, seems a bit dubious.
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He apparently is in the healthcare field and has participated in several conference calls with the CDC. He committed to keep us abreast of what he heard. May not be a link handy?

And see post right above mine for validation of that?
 
#7,760
#7,760
85SugarVol said:
I’m well aware that they haven’t nailed down how many are infected. These are the best estimates they can come up with.

So again - You think this is all a hoax? No big deal? Surely you can answer.
Click to expand...
So, you're adding an excluded middle fallacy to your list of problems?

I don't know what it is and will wait for it to unfold--paying very close attention to what the numbers do as testing expands and their estimates improve.

I don't think it's a hoax, and I don't think it's the Walking Dead singularity. I do think it's irresponsible to quote a mortality rate when you have to guess to get at it. And I'll say again that I know for a fact that appeals to authority are fallacious breakdowns in critical thinking.
 
#7,765
#7,765
Rickyvol77 said:
The full memo is not for public consumption. But that is 100% accurate
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NorthDallas40 said:
He apparently is in the healthcare field and has participated in several conference calls with the CDC. He committed to keep us abreast of what he heard. May not be a link handy?

And see post right above mine for validation of that?
Click to expand...

Well, I suppose that data will be forthcoming. I would think that good news would spread faster than the virus.

I'd like to think it's under control, but not sure I do.
 
#7,770
#7,770
Rickyvol77 said:
Latest official word from CDC/DHS/CISA is that everything is under control
938 infected in US, 29 deaths (almost all 80 yrs+)
The big worry is panic keeping people from donating blood and such
Click to expand...
The cases of infection are low because the amount of testing is low.
 
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#7,771
#7,771
Stew Cook said:
Well, I suppose that data will be forthcoming. I would think that good news would spread faster than the virus.

I'd like to think it's under control, but not sure I do.
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I’d guess most of the sausage making details the CDC generates and shares with healthcare professionals will never see the light of day and I’d guess this case is no different.
 
#7,772
#7,772
Here's the facts:

Mortality rate is a division between [# infected] and [# dead]. If either of those is an unknown variable, you can't calculate. It doesn't take me interpreting numbers to know that, and the smartest authorities in the world can't overcome that unknown--which they've admitted is unknown. The fact of the matter is that populations are largely untested, and the mortality rate projections plummet when testing increases to test the less symptomatic, and asymptomatic.

Korea is probably the most tested population on the planet, and their mortality rate is listed around .6%.

You unthinkingly repeated the claim that this is 10x more deadly than the flu--a claim made by those who freely admit that they don't know enough to know that. And you were called out on it. Having been called out on it, you've floundered by stacking up the fallacies and quadrupling down on the original appeal to authority. And doubling down on the excluded middle with the dumbass grandma comment.

I believe that it will be more deadly than the common flu. I do not believe that it will be nearly 10x more deadly, and that the numbers will bear that out as testing increases.

Now, take your lumps and move on. Stop doing this to yourself.
 
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#7,775
#7,775
Orange_Crush said:
So, you're adding an excluded middle fallacy to your list of problems?

I don't know what it is and will wait for it to unfold--paying very close attention to what the numbers do as testing expands and their estimates improve.

I don't think it's a hoax, and I don't think it's the Walking Dead singularity. I do think it's irresponsible to quote a mortality rate when you have to guess to get at it. And I'll say again that I know for a fact that appeals to authority are fallacious breakdowns in critical thinking.
Click to expand...

I think it is also worth consideration that CDC estimates the flu data as well.

How CDC Estimates the Burden of Seasonal Influenza in the U.S. | CDC

Given the fact they are comparing estimated data for coronavirus to estimated data for seasonal influenza, one could argue the comparison is justified given the similarities of the data extrapolation. OTOH one could argue the comparison of one estimate to another estimate lends itself to inaccuracy, but I do think it is worth considering that even the flu data is estimated.

Also, the fact that many undiagnosed cases would drive the morbidity rate down would also, I would think, have an inverse effect on the infectious rate. If many more people have it, it would seem to be less deadly than the WHO's estimate of 3.4%, but it would seem to mean the virus is also more contagious and reach a larger percentage of the population.
 
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