Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[Orange_Vol1321]

These posts are completely irresponsible. Italy's reaction is not necessarily the correct one. They dont even know the real data but are subjecting their citizenry to the worst possible scenario.

Taking something with a 2% kill rate and behaving like it is Ebola is completely irresponsible.

I'm good with it. I have older relatives that wouldn't last if they caught this stuff.

I think the story here is it's a lot more serious than China has let on.

 

[lawgator1]

I’m no scientist or mathematician, but ...
Ordinary flu has a kill rate of about .1%,
This thing is running at about 2-2.5-3% kill rate.

That’s 25-30 TIMES more deadly than regular flu - and it seems to have roughly the same contagious spread like flu or a cold.
That runs through a population of 100,000 or 1million its gonna kill a pretty large number of folks.

So, way deadlier than the “regular” flu, and spreads way quicker than something like SARS or Ebola.

I think that is the reason behind the concern.

Found a decent article about it. You are close on the death rate, though this season the common flu is fatal about 0.5 %, so its not quite as dramatic a multiplier.



How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu?

The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for COVID-19. A study published Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be 2.2, meaning each infected person has been spreading the virus to an average of 2.2 people.

So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data.

The death rate for COVID-19 appears to be higher than that of the flu.

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

Even so, the death rate for COVID-19 varied by location and an individual’s age, among other factors. For instance, in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death rate reached 2.9%; in other provinces of China, that rate was just 0.4%. In addition, older adults have been hit the hardest. The death rate soars to 14.8% in those 80 and older; among those ages 70 to 79, the COVID-19 death rate in China seems to be about 8%; it’s 3.6% for those ages 60 to 69; 1.3% for 50 to 59; 0.4% for the age group 40 to 49; and just 0.2% for people ages 10 to 39. Nobody 9 and under has died of this coronavirus to date.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

In other news, Ms. Messonmier is soon to be looking for a new job.

If she made the decision of those flights get her azz out.

 

[Vol737]

DHHS/NIAID Dr discussing trial phases of vaccine could be ready in a month 1/2 possibly. On CNBC at the moment. Several trials going on simultaneously on different drugs/vaccines for COVID 19.

 

[InVOLuntary]

She contradicted Trump and Kudlow view of alternative facts. She's lucky if Trump doesn't sick a Senate investigation on her.

It could be worse, Hillary would have her sucided.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

That would be a huge mistake. US citizens will not stand for martial law.

So why not? There's a legitimate reason to close down shop at least 14 days.
The people without a rainy day fund or a month of food/supplies I get. Who else?

 

[37L1]

So why not? There's a legitimate reason to close down shop at least 14 days.
The people without a rainy day fund or a month of food/supplies I get. Who else?

When does the 14 days start? With each new case, reset the calendar?

 

[hog88]

So why not? There's a legitimate reason to close down shop at least 14 days.
The people without a rainy day fund or a month of food/supplies I get. Who else?

I get it some people will not have a problem with the government ordering them to stay in their house for 2 weeks. Me and many more would look at them and think "challenge accepted".

 

[Burhead]

Two points the death rates in Italy (3%) and Iran (nearly 15%) are higher than that 2% average. Why the death rates are higher there I'm not sure. That Iran number will likely go down a lot because by all accounts the outbreak is a widespread and the government is clearly not being open about it. That said I'm a little concerned about the language coming out of HHS and CDC in their press conference right now.

 

[DynaLo]

That would be a huge mistake. US citizens will not stand for martial law.

Just pointing out what they have included as an option in their pandemic operational plans that I found going through both web site documents. I spent a few hours reading various documents they both have posted. I got way down into those rabbit holes..lol

 

[hog88]

Just pointing out what they have included as an option in their pandemic operational plans that I found going through both web site documents. I spent a few hours reading various documents they both have posted. I got way down into those rabbit holes..lol

It would be a bad option.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

I get it some people will not have a problem with the government ordering them to stay in their house for 2 weeks. Me and many more would look at them and think "challenge accepted".

So you would actively go out and try to get it and spread it?

 

[volfanhill]

If she made the decision of those flights get her azz out.

She’s with the CDC. They were quite vocal about not allowing those flights. It was the state department that overruled them.

 

[Orange_Vol1321]

If true you can catch it over and over, without quarantining it will never disappear.

 

[lawgator1]

Olympics may be postponed.

 

[lawgator1]

She’s with the CDC. They were quite vocal about not allowing those flights. It was the state department that overruled them.

Which flights?

 

[hog88]

So you would actively go out and try to get it and spread it?

That's exactly what I said.

 

[volfanhill]

Which flights?

Behind The Scenes: State Department And CDC Waged Battle Over Flying Americans With Coronavirus Home

 

[lawgator1]

Behind The Scenes: State Department And CDC Waged Battle Over Flying Americans With Coronavirus Home

Huh, missed that I guess over the weekend. I knew about them coming home, but did not know someone of any import was arguing against it. That's a big deal.

 

[UT_VOLS13]

In other news, Ms. Messonmier is soon to be looking for a new job.

That is Rod Rosenstein's sister.

 

[allvol123]

If true you can catch it over and over, without quarantining it will never disappear.

Would you quit. You cant quarantine it out of existence. This is so effing dumb.

 

[evillawyer]

Only the best baby!

 

[Orangeburst]

Well according to the WP, apparently the virus is not what only kills you. It is your own immune system. Not sure if that is true with the flu.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/02/25/cdc-coronavirus-inevitable/

 

[AM64]

I get it some people will not have a problem with the government ordering them to stay in their house for 2 weeks. Me and many more would look at them and think "challenge accepted".

Yeah, but we knew you were deplorable anyway.

 

[AM64]

Two points the death rates in Italy (3%) and Iran (nearly 15%) are higher than that 2% average. Why the death rates are higher there I'm not sure. That Iran number will likely go down a lot because by all accounts the outbreak is a widespread and the government is clearly not being open about it. That said I'm a little concerned about the language coming out of HHS and CDC in their press conference right now.

Iran at 15% - now, that's promising.