Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#901
#901
Coug said:
I don't disagree, but it's the only numbers we're allowed right now so it couldn't hurt to do the math until then.



132 deaths in 5974 cases is a 2.21% mortality rate. Taking that with a grain of salt the mortality rate has dropped.
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That's misleading though because it doesn't account for people still sick. Compare the number infected to the number recovered. That number is far different. It makes a difference when people get sick and battle the illness for awhile before ultimately recovering or not recovering.
 
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#904
#904
volfanhill said:
Maybe. Depends on tons of things. Would be way too reactionary to do it now.
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Completely disagree. Get out front of it. If you drop infected people all over America you won't just have to shut down the airlines but also America for 14 days or more.
 
#905
#905
Coug said:
I don't disagree, but it's the only numbers we're allowed right now so it couldn't hurt to do the math until then.



132 deaths in 5974 cases is a 2.21% mortality rate. Taking that with a grain of salt the mortality rate has dropped.
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Meh. How long are the people living once they're confirmed to have it. All of the numbers are off no matter the category.
 
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#907
#907
I think this thing is pretty worrisome. I’ve read a lot of conflicting information but the numbers we are seeing reported now are likely way behind reality. I think the numbers of infected are likely exponentially higher.

Cities don’t get quarantined over something less dangerous than the common flu, imo. You’ve got videos of Chinese medical personnel walking around in full hazmat suits.

Consider of the reported infections how many are reported as cured compared the number of deaths. I’m assuming that means the remainder are still sick.


2128359B-D4D5-4D7E-8095-2FC70A330341.jpeg
 
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#909
#909
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#910
#910
Freak said:
The other issue with the numbers is I’ve seen various reports that they don’t even have enough test kits to meet the demand from those who are sick. I’ve also read that Identifying a positive test is labor intensive and likely severely backlogged.

Wuhan, China, faces such a shortage of coronavirus test-kits that people say getting one is like 'winning the lottery'
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I think the CDC requires a saliva sample, blood, and a stool sample to determine if the virus is present. And then it takes several days to get the results.
 
#911
#911
davethevol said:
I think the CDC requires a saliva sample, blood, and a stool sample to determine if the virus is present. And then it takes several days to get the results.
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I don't know how long it would take to include this particular strain, but rapid PCR testing is available for other Coronaviruses at even our local Children's hospital, and results are available within a day.
 
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#912
#912
Freak said:
I think this thing is pretty worrisome. I’ve read a lot of conflicting information but the numbers we are seeing reported now are likely way behind reality. I think the numbers of infected are likely exponentially higher.

Cities don’t get quarantined over something less dangerous than the common flu, imo. You’ve got videos of Chinese medical personnel walking around in full hazmat suits.
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Yes sir. Tis a bit worrisome.
 
#913
#913
kiddiedoc said:
I don't know how long it would take to include this particular strain, but rapid PCR testing is available for other Coronaviruses at even our local Children's hospital, and results are available within a day.
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This was told to me by someone in the medical industry that got the info from the CDC. I'm not sure why the difference, I just know that's what was relayed to me. Maybe they're going the extra mile at this point in identifying the infection.
 
#914
#914
kiddiedoc said:
I don't know how long it would take to include this particular strain, but rapid PCR testing is available for other Coronaviruses at even our local Children's hospital, and results are available within a day.
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Looks like the latest test kits can get results in a day, in theory. That’s assuming they can keep up with demand. And if only a fraction are actually being tested, as some reports suggest, the numbers of infected are likely way underestimated.

Confusion and lost time: how testing woes slowed China's coronavirus response
 
#915
#915
tennvols77 said:
Yes sir. Tis a bit worrisome.
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The good news is there seems to be differing information on whether it can be transmitted before symptoms appear. A video online from NBC this morning suggests there are no confirmed cases of it spreading during the incubation period.
 
#916
#916
I’m going with the numbers some have thrown out the past day or so. I think it’s a minimum of 100,000 infected. I would not be surprised if that’s an underestimate.
 
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#920
#920
Godfatha said:
I’m going with the numbers some have thrown out the past day or so. I think it’s a minimum of 100,000 infected. I would not be surprised if that’s an underestimate.
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It wouldn't surprise me, but I don't think it's contagiousness should be nailed down at this point.

The public in China was not made aware of this virus for a while. There are hurdles that city govt has to jump through with health agencies and govt bureaucrats in China before they can notify their own people that there is a health concern.

Two weeks ago they had a festival in Wuhan with over 10,000 families (I've seen as high as 30,000 families) in attendance where they are in close proximity and sharing food at banquet tables. That is going to vastly increase the amount of people getting sick vs normal day to day routine. And even more so than if the public was made aware and began taking extra precaution.
 
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#921
#921
davethevol said:
The US will hold off as long as possible to keep the economy from tanking. If this does get bad, can you imagine what it will do to the country financially?
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What’s already happening in China is a good indication. Businesses shutting down, schools closed, etc. Even if it doesn’t spread here it’s hard to imagine this not having an impact on the global economy. US Markets seem to be mostly ignoring it so far though.
 
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#922
#922
The more we learn about it, the greater the possibility is that transmission will not be able to be controlled with public health measures,” said Dr. Allison McGeer, a Toronto-based infectious disease specialist who contracted SARS in 2003 and who helped Saudi Arabia control several hospital-based outbreaks of MERS.

If that’s the case, she said, “we’re living with a new human virus, and we’re going to find out if it will spread around the globe.” McGeer cautioned that because the true severity of the outbreak isn’t yet known, it’s impossible to predict what the impact of that spread would be, though she noted it would likely pose significant challenges to health care facilities.
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Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus
 
#925
#925
Freak said:
The good news is there seems to be differing information on whether it can be transmitted before symptoms appear. A video online from NBC this morning suggests there are no confirmed cases of it spreading during the incubation period.
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I saw yesterday a news blurb saying that in one of the current H2H transmission cases the carrier didn’t show any symptoms until she was on her return trip back to China.

Iirc, it was talking about a German H2H case, although it could have been Toronto as I’ve read a ton of articles. I’ll see if I can dig it back up.

Edit: correct on being in Germany. Here’s the article.

Germany confirms human transmission of coronavirus | DW | 28.01.2020
 
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