Amateur Hour Continues

#26,651
#26,651
SpaceCoastVol said:
why?
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I'm not sure what you're asking.
I never got a flu shot and then about 20 years ago my wife convinces me to get one. I get one and then get a very bad case of the flu about a month later.
Haven't had a flu shot or the flu since.
So for me:
Getting a flu shot = getting the flu.
Not getting a flu shot = not getting the flu.
 
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#26,652
#26,652
I don't believe that I have ever had a flu shot, unless I got one when I was school age and don't remember. I have never gotten one as an adult. I also haven't had the flu in many, many years.
 
#26,654
#26,654
evillawyer said:
Just change "Tom" to "Don" and Trump's got a new campaign song. He's sure as a hell a space cadet

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Hope you didn't hurt yourself with all the heavy lifting you had to do to come up with that one.

Last night I watched the news from Washington, the Capitol
The Russians escaped while we weren't watching them
Like Russians do
Now we've got all this bloom, we needn't got the room
And I hear the U.S.S.R will be open soon

As vacation land for lawyers in love
Lawyers in love
Lawyers in love

-Jackson Browne
 
#26,655
#26,655
Idk why Trump has latched himself on to this guy. He was a terrible soldier and officer and if it wasn’t for the fact that the platoon he commanded precious PL hadn’t been wounded he would have never held a command.
 
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#26,657
#26,657
carlos86 said:
Idk why Trump has latched himself on to this guy. He was a terrible soldier and officer and if it wasn’t for the fact that the platoon he commanded precious PL hadn’t been wounded he would have never held a command.
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Would love to see the military tribunal transcripts. I'm curious that way because this doesn't make sense.
 
#26,660
#26,660
Velo Vol said:
What would a good economy look like for you?
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Somehow I missed this, I love the question.

It's always going to be somewhat of a "fake" economy. That's inevitable when you have a central bank. If a POTUS were to boast a strengthened economy, it would look a lot like a fake economy (GDP growth, labor force participation high, purchasing power high, etc.). These are good signs but when they followed growth in government spending, artificially low-interest rates, protectionism, and other forms of GDP manipulation, then likely most of the improvement you've seen is fake. Show me economic growth without those precursors and I'll say it's legit.
 
#26,662
#26,662
n_huffhines said:
It's always going to be somewhat of a "fake" economy. That's inevitable when you have a central bank. If a POTUS were to boast a strengthened economy, it would look a lot like a fake economy (GDP growth, labor force participation high, purchasing power high, etc.). These are good signs but when they followed growth in government spending, artificially low-interest rates, protectionism, and other forms of GDP manipulation, then likely most of the improvement you've seen is fake. Show me economic growth without those precursors and I'll say it's legit.
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When you look at the big picture I don't see why people get so worked up about central banks, deficits, interest rates.

How well is the system running? Are people working? Is poverty decreasing? Are people able to purchase necessities? Are goods getting cheaper?

These are the things we should be looking at when asking if the economy is healthy.
 
#26,663
#26,663
Velo Vol said:
When you look at the big picture I don't see why people get so worked up about central banks, deficits, interest rates.

How well is the system running? Are people working? Is poverty decreasing? Are people able to purchase necessities? Are goods getting cheaper?

These are the things we should be looking at when asking if the economy is healthy.
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Somewhat agree, don't like a big deficit though. I also look at Employment overall. Is it a market where a employer or a job seeker has more options? Right now, people are demanding higher wages and there are plenty of jobs available making it a job seekers market. That's a good sign of a strong economy.
 
#26,664
#26,664
norrislakevol said:
Somewhat agree, don't like a big deficit though. I also look at Employment overall. Is it a market where a employer or a job seeker has more options? Right now, people are demanding higher wages and there are plenty of jobs available making it a job seekers market. That's a good sign of a strong economy.
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Ultimately a society has two things: people and resources. What you want is a system where people are allocating resources efficiently for the benefit of as many people as possible.

Viewed that way, we're doing pretty well; better than many earlier economies did. That's something I think one should consider when fretting about the central bank and "fake" growth.
 
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#26,665
#26,665
Velo Vol said:
When you look at the big picture I don't see why people get so worked up about central banks, deficits, interest rates.

How well is the system running? Are people working? Is poverty decreasing? Are people able to purchase necessities? Are goods getting cheaper?

These are the things we should be looking at when asking if the economy is healthy.
Click to expand...

You're going to get a 2nd Trump term because of the central bank, so there's that.

You're being too shortsighted just looking at what's happening in the present. If we manipulate the economy now, we pay for it later or in unseen ways. Think about it like this, instead of saving, we spend/borrow money now which makes the economy look good. Savings increases result in less current activity but saving is good too, right? The fed encourages us to spend/borrow with artificial cheap credit when we should be saving and this is how bubbles are created. Interest rates tell us when to save and when to borrow, and we're messing with this essential mechanism.

Trump just happened to time his presidency right. He got the tail end of a recession and we're creating a new bubble.
 
#26,666
#26,666
n_huffhines said:
You're going to get a 2nd Trump term because of the central bank, so there's that.

You're being too shortsighted just looking at what's happening. If we manipulate the economy now, we pay for it later or in unseen ways. Think about it like this, instead of saving, we spend/borrow money now which makes the economy look good. Saving increases will result in less current activity but saving is good too, right? The fed encourages us to spend/borrow with artificial cheap credit when we should be saving and this is how bubbles are created. Trump just happened to time his presidency right. He got the tail end of a recession and we're creating a new bubble.
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Tax policy/laws are more to blame for our spend/borrow mentality than the central banks.
 
#26,667
#26,667
hog88 said:
Tax policy/laws are more to blame for our spend/borrow mentality than the central banks.
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Not government spending/borrowing...i'm talking about the players in the economy. They are spending/borrowing when they should be saving because of low interest rates
 
#26,669
#26,669
hog88 said:
The players in our economy is business and the consumers.
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Exactly. Here's an example:

The natural interest rate is say, 7%. If the fed set interest rates at 12%, what would smart people tend to do? They would be lenders and savers. If the fed sets the interest rate at 1%, what would smart people tend to do? Now is a great time to be a borrower/spender. Go ahead and take a loan out and build that new rental you've wanted. Or go buy your first home.

It's the same economy in terms of legitimacy, whether the interest rate is 1%, 7%, or 12%. With 12% interest rates set you're going to manipulate the economy towards immediate downturns*. With 1% interest rates, you're going to manipulate the economy toward immediate gains but you're creating a bubble.

*the fed doesn't seem to ever set them artificially high, but who knows what the natural rate even is?
 
#26,670
#26,670
I think we all understand why pricing is so important to a market economy. It tells us when to buy and when to sell.

Interest rates tell us when to save and when to borrow. I cannot overstate how important this mechanism is. For those who oppose government-set prices, why would/should you/we be OK with government-set interest rates?
 
#26,671
#26,671
n_huffhines said:
Exactly. Here's an example:

The natural interest rate is say, 7%. If the fed set interest rates at 12%, what would smart people tend to do? They would be lenders and savers. If the fed sets the interest rate at 1%, what would smart people tend to do? Now is a great time to be a borrower/spender. Go ahead and take a loan out and build that new rental you've wanted. Or go buy your first home.

It's the same economy in terms of legitimacy, whether the interest rate is 1%, 7%, or 12%. With 12% interest rates set you're going to manipulate the economy towards immediate downturns*. With 1% interest rates, you're going to manipulate the economy toward immediate gains but you're creating a bubble.

*the fed doesn't seem to ever set them artificially high, but who knows what the natural rate even is?
Click to expand...

The "natural rate" would be what people are willing to pay.
 
#26,673
#26,673
n_huffhines said:
You're being too shortsighted just looking at what's happening in the present. If we manipulate the economy now, we pay for it later or in unseen ways. Think about it like this, instead of saving, we spend/borrow money now which makes the economy look good. Savings increases result in less current activity but saving is good too, right? The fed encourages us to spend/borrow with artificial cheap credit when we should be saving and this is how bubbles are created. Interest rates tell us when to save and when to borrow, and we're messing with this essential mechanism.
Click to expand...

In the long run we're all dead. As long as we're being responsible/not destroying the planet, why shouldn't we maximize the present economy?
 
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