Realistic expectations for H. Bailey (Merged)

#26
#26
TNVOLFN said:
When boiled down like that, yes, he has a very low interception rate. But, there's more to it than that considering many, many, many of his throws were routes out of the backfield, quick game (3 step) throws, or perimeter screens to elite high school athletes.

To be more accurate, I should've said he's interception prone on drop back passes - I think 9 interceptions this season is a lot, but it's more or less that I have seen him throw countless balls into traffic when he shouldn't have and missed a lot of throws on deep balls that were easy interceptions, but were dropped.

I'm rooting for the kid. My whole point is that we gotta be patient with this extremely talented kid who I hope has the best career ever as a QB at the University of Tennessee!
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9 INTs is relative. If he threw 100 passes, sure it’s a lot. But he had 392 pass attempts this year. Makes it not a lot. At all. Thus, the really low INT rate.

As for downfield throws, analysts are pretty even across the board stating he is very accurate downfield and throws a great deep ball. His only knock coming into this season was he was too stationary in the pocket. He appears to have worked on that and extended plays better this season. That’s why he’s now being talked about as possibly getting bumped to a 5 star.

Either way, we won’t know what we got until he steps on campus and competes at this level. So I’m with you, I’m hoping he balls out.
 
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#27
#27
TNVOLFN said:
Just a heads up, but I feel we need to slow down with our expectations for Bailey coming on to campus and being QB1 on day one. The kid throws an elite ball, no question, but he also holds onto the ball for a long time and takes sacks and he is prone to throw interceptions.

No doubt that can all be corrected, but I'm telling you, he is a work in progress as I've seen him play multiple times. You can't simply look at stats because 1. That's not a true indicator of how a player's game translates to the next level and 2. a LOT of his throws were either perimeter throws to exceptional athletes or short passes to a generational talent in Gilbert.

I really think he can be the guy one day, I just don't think there's anyway shape or form he comes into the current QB room and leap frogs any of those guys in short order, Shrout included... To me, great thing about all of this is that he isn't needed right away and he can get a year or two in Coach Chaney's system.
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If you sit him two years, he'll be playing for someone else in year two. I've watched him 2 years now while living in Dville, GA. Has the build and arm of Peyton with the head of Casey. He'll be playing starting QB on The Hill next year before the season is out IMO. He IS needed right away, our best QB returning as an upper classman literally took a potential win over Bama out of this team's hands, lost to BYU and Ga State and played well only in spurts down the stretch.
 
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#31
#31
Already the most talented QB on the roster. I would say starts day one, but JG might have a hold on that based on his play the 2nd half of the season
 
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#34
#34
Gandalf said:
I am perfectly calm when I say that I fully expect him to win not one but TWO Heisman Trophies in the same year - and that would be just his true freshman year. Yes, I know it has never been done before but they still owe us one for Peyton so they should allow it. :D
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Scary... I was just saying that he will win one and have another one retroactively awarded to Peyton.
 
#36
#36
"The Pre-Everything All-American Team"
Voted by the fans ... sponsored by LSD--Ludicrous Sunshine Delivery.
 
#38
#38
TNVOLFN said:
Just a heads up, but I feel we need to slow down with our expectations for Bailey coming on to campus and being QB1 on day one. The kid throws an elite ball, no question, but he also holds onto the ball for a long time and takes sacks and he is prone to throw interceptions.

No doubt that can all be corrected, but I'm telling you, he is a work in progress as I've seen him play multiple times. You can't simply look at stats because 1. That's not a true indicator of how a player's game translates to the next level and 2. a LOT of his throws were either perimeter throws to exceptional athletes or short passes to a generational talent in Gilbert.

I really think he can be the guy one day, I just don't think there's anyway shape or form he comes into the current QB room and leap frogs any of those guys in short order, Shrout included... To me, great thing about all of this is that he isn't needed right away and he can get a year or two in Coach Chaney's system.
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Heisman or bust!
 
#39
#39
Anybody else sensing this could be another year like Peyton's freshman season. A number of upperclassmen ahead of him but fate or destiny could throw him into the mix early. Hope he is ready.
 
#40
#40
TNVOLFN said:
When boiled down like that, yes, he has a very low interception rate. But, there's more to it than that considering many, many, many of his throws were routes out of the backfield, quick game (3 step) throws, or perimeter screens to elite high school athletes.

To be more accurate, I should've said he's interception prone on drop back passes - I think 9 interceptions this season is a lot, but it's more or less that I have seen him throw countless balls into traffic when he shouldn't have and missed a lot of throws on deep balls that were easy interceptions, but were dropped.

I'm rooting for the kid. My whole point is that we gotta be patient with this extremely talented kid who I hope has the best career ever as a QB at the University of Tennessee!
Click to expand...
So basically, hes a Quarterback that got the ball to his play makers and describes a lot of what almost every coach wants to do? That includes the NFL too. As far as being interception prone, he threw 20 total interceptions out of 930 passes. No matter which way you want to spin it, that is far from INT prone. While he may have had elite talent, they have also gone up against elite talent. St Joseph is ranked 31 in the country, Grayson is 96, Edgewater is 54, McEachern is 103, Parkview is 81, and Lowndes is 11. Theres another 3 or 4 that are ranked 150-300. Its not like he has played scrubs and put these numbers up.
 
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#44
#44
ABINGDON VOL FAN said:
He is not prone to Interceptions. Look at Int %. Please research data fully before making uninformed statements.
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I like Abingdon, I lived there a couple of years while I played at and graduated from Emory and Henry...

Anyway, to your point, I already replied on down the thread about the gist of their (Marietta's) offense and stated a more accurate analysis is about his tendency, on drop back passes, to force throws and to hold on the ball too long. I have seen play him live and in color multiple times and I don't need to see a bunch of #'s to tell me what I saw was wrong. Fact is, a high schooler's stats don't matter to colleges. I've never had a college coach say to me "he looks good on film, what are his stats?"

He's going to be a dandy, just not the moment he arrives on campus.
 
#45
#45
TNVOLFN said:
Just a heads up, but I feel we need to slow down with our expectations for Bailey coming on to campus and being QB1 on day one. The kid throws an elite ball, no question, but he also holds onto the ball for a long time and takes sacks and he is prone to throw interceptions.

No doubt that can all be corrected, but I'm telling you, he is a work in progress as I've seen him play multiple times. You can't simply look at stats because 1. That's not a true indicator of how a player's game translates to the next level and 2. a LOT of his throws were either perimeter throws to exceptional athletes or short passes to a generational talent in Gilbert.

I really think he can be the guy one day, I just don't think there's anyway shape or form he comes into the current QB room and leap frogs any of those guys in short order, Shrout included... To me, great thing about all of this is that he isn't needed right away and he can get a year or two in Coach Chaney's system.
Click to expand...

I watched him couple of games and also watched his highlights/stats :

1) Quick release is his strength so no idea where you got the holds on to ball too long thing
2) Has one of the best INT to TD ratio.

I agree with your overall thinking that needs time as even Tua or Trevor Lawrence needed some time and development. One played mop up most first year, other played mid-season. If QB play is decent from other guys, he can be slowly eased in.

I am more excited about JET !! Holiday seems like a legit WildCat freak runner.
 
#46
#46
TNVOLFN said:
Just a heads up, but I feel we need to slow down with our expectations for Bailey coming on to campus and being QB1 on day one. The kid throws an elite ball, no question, but he also holds onto the ball for a long time and takes sacks and he is prone to throw interceptions.

No doubt that can all be corrected, but I'm telling you, he is a work in progress as I've seen him play multiple times. You can't simply look at stats because 1. That's not a true indicator of how a player's game translates to the next level and 2. a LOT of his throws were either perimeter throws to exceptional athletes or short passes to a generational talent in Gilbert.

I really think he can be the guy one day, I just don't think there's anyway shape or form he comes into the current QB room and leap frogs any of those guys in short order, Shrout included... To me, great thing about all of this is that he isn't needed right away and he can get a year or two in Coach Chaney's system.
Click to expand...
He threw for 4,200 yds this year. 44 TDS and JUST 7 interceptions. As many times as he threw the ball 7 is a very small number and does not make him prone to throwing interceptions. I have watched several of his games this year. The kid is a baller. The competition in the room just got a lot more intense with him here. Competition is a great thing. Don't count him out. If he doesn't win the spot it will mean someone got much much better.
 
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#47
#47
He will RS and compete for the starting job in 2021.
 
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#48
#48
TNVOLFN said:
Just a heads up, but I feel we need to slow down with our expectations for Bailey coming on to campus and being QB1 on day one. The kid throws an elite ball, no question, but he also holds onto the ball for a long time and takes sacks and he is prone to throw interceptions.

No doubt that can all be corrected, but I'm telling you, he is a work in progress as I've seen him play multiple times. You can't simply look at stats because 1. That's not a true indicator of how a player's game translates to the next level and 2. a LOT of his throws were either perimeter throws to exceptional athletes or short passes to a generational talent in Gilbert.

I really think he can be the guy one day, I just don't think there's anyway shape or form he comes into the current QB room and leap frogs any of those guys in short order, Shrout included... To me, great thing about all of this is that he isn't needed right away and he can get a year or two in Coach Chaney's system.
Click to expand...
Better be careful. I’ve watched him several times myself live and telling the truth about his shortcomings is NOT something VN is prepared to tolerate. I’ve noticed myself the same things you mentioned among other things and no one knows if he’s simply a product of his team or if his team is a product of him. Only time will tell
 
#49
#49
TNVOLFN said:
I like Abingdon, I lived there a couple of years while I played at and graduated from Emory and Henry...

Anyway, to your point, I already replied on down the thread about the gist of their (Marietta's) offense and stated a more accurate analysis is about his tendency, on drop back passes, to force throws and to hold on the ball too long. I have seen play him live and in color multiple times and I don't need to see a bunch of #'s to tell me what I saw was wrong. Fact is, a high schooler's stats don't matter to colleges. I've never had a college coach say to me "he looks good on film, what are his stats?"

He's going to be a dandy, just not the moment he arrives on campus.
Click to expand...
He will win the starter job sometime next year, hopefully by game 1. Bank on it.
 
#50
#50
TNVOLFN said:
When boiled down like that, yes, he has a very low interception rate. But, there's more to it than that considering many, many, many of his throws were routes out of the backfield, quick game (3 step) throws, or perimeter screens to elite high school athletes.

To be more accurate, I should've said he's interception prone on drop back passes - I think 9 interceptions this season is a lot, but it's more or less that I have seen him throw countless balls into traffic when he shouldn't have and missed a lot of throws on deep balls that were easy interceptions, but were dropped.

I'm rooting for the kid. My whole point is that we gotta be patient with this extremely talented kid who I hope has the best career ever as a QB at the University of Tennessee![/QUOTE I live in Ga and he plays in the super 7 classification which means yes he was throwing to elite talent but they were also playing against elite talent. To win state in 7A football in this state is no easy job for any Qb
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