Buyout Reality

[zydane47]

if Butch Jones can be one I think you still have time....
I am sure there will be some opportunities available at the end of the season...
time to fire up the resume....

Well not to toot my own horn here but I did have a five year dynasty going in NCAA 14, leading the nation in offense while running the Full House Pistol formation, which got me the #1 recruiting class every year. I think maybe I'd have a good shot at a job.

 

['Boro-vol]

I'm really surprised the UT laywers haven't brought up this fact that he hasn't tried to get a head coaching job. I'm sure that has to be in the contract some place. If it isn't then the AD needs new laywers.

They probably weigh the upside against the perception the media coverage would cause.

If we are seen to be curtailing buyouts and scraping for dollars, that’s not going to paint a very pretty picture.

Just playing devils advocate. I wish they’d break it off in Jones personally.

 

['Boro-vol]

Well not to toot my own horn here but I did have a five year dynasty going in NCAA 14, leading the nation in offense while running the Full House Pistol formation, which got me the #1 recruiting class every year. I think maybe I'd have a good shot at a job.

We could use a man like you.

 

[barknoxbrawler]

So the past few weeks I have read the posts on how we need to fire CJP and Staff and start over. The reality is the University simply cannot do that from a money standpoint. I am just going to use some dumb ranger math to break this down.

Butch Jones' last payment is scheduled for Feb 2021, that is 17 more months. 17x200k=$3,400,000M owed.

CJP and Staff would be owed roughly $15M if fired before Dec.

New staff and the infamous Proven P5 winner would cost anywhere from $20-25M.

I will round down Butch's cost to $3M and split the difference on new staff at $23M

3M+15M+23M=$41M............I don't care who the big boosters are, no one is going to float that cost. Love it or hate it; we are married to CJP for the next couple of years similar to when Auburn wanted to fire CGM last year. It could be worse, we could be like Texas A&M and signed a $75M guaranteed contract.

Except that Jimbo is winning and has won and is a proven winner. He doesn’t lose much so did I say winning at all? $75 mill guaranteed to a winner is nothing for a program of Tamu and UT size.

 

[jonnon111]

I shoulda been a football coach.

So you can work 100 hours a week so everyone can yell to fire you because you didn't fix all the ails an entire program in 18 months?

But my dad once told me when he got laid off "when your working you have money and no time, when you're not working you have time and no money"

College coaches are on the money with no time side of the coin. There's a reason these coaches have smiling wives and it isn't the face time. Someone has time to spend that money lol.

 

[hog88]

So you can work 100 hours a week so everyone can yell to fire you because you didn't fix all the ails an entire program in 18 months?

But my dad once told me when he got laid off "when your working you have money and no time, when you're not working you have time and no money"

College coaches are on the money with no time side of the coin. There's a reason these coaches have smiling wives and it isn't the face time. Someone has time to spend that money lol.

For 4 mil a year and a golden parachute I'll work 100 hours a week. I've done it before for much, much less.

 

[DonDiego]

So the past few weeks I have read the posts on how we need to fire CJP and Staff and start over. The reality is the University simply cannot do that from a money standpoint. I am just going to use some dumb ranger math to break this down.

Butch Jones' last payment is scheduled for Feb 2021, that is 17 more months. 17x200k=$3,400,000M owed.

CJP and Staff would be owed roughly $15M if fired before Dec.

New staff and the infamous Proven P5 winner would cost anywhere from $20-25M.

I will round down Butch's cost to $3M and split the difference on new staff at $23M

3M+15M+23M=$41M............I don't care who the big boosters are, no one is going to float that cost. Love it or hate it; we are married to CJP for the next couple of years similar to when Auburn wanted to fire CGM last year. It could be worse, we could be like Texas A&M and signed a $75M guaranteed contract.

I've seen estimates that show the buyout of the current staff to be closer to $17--18 mil. But, at this level, what's a couple more mil?

 

[jonnon111]

All that money and they are one game better than we are. Say all you want, but I don't know if it's worth it. Jumbo has as much hardware from the SEC (at aTm) as Pruitt has at UT, just saying. And Mond looks to have regressed and that's Jimbos expertise.

 

[jonnon111]

For 4 mil a year and a golden parachute I'll work 100 hours a week. I've done it before for much, much less.

Touchè sir.

 

[barknoxbrawler]

All that money and they are one game better than we are. Say all you want, but I don't know if it's worth it. Jumbo has as much hardware from the SEC (at aTm) as Pruitt has at UT, just saying. And Mond looks to have regressed and that's Jimbos expertise.

But you can’t compare his time at A&M to Pruitts! You have to look at history. One has won as ahead coach and been very successful elsewhere and is successful now at his new program. The other is has not won anywhere and isn’t successful now.

 

[jonnon111]

But you can’t compare his time at A&M to Pruitts! You have to look at history. One has won as ahead coach and been very successful elsewhere and is successful now at his new program. The other is has not won anywhere and isn’t successful now.

Why can't I? Everyone compares Pruitt to every coach in their 2nd year. Are you saying Jumbo can have a bad year LATER in his career, but game 16 of Pruitts head coaching career and the judgement is final???

Also, I don't think anyone would say CJP has not won anywhere he's been. He may not have been the head coach, but he won some games.

How would you define Jimbo as successful now? Not disagreeing, but I'm curious what the metrics are.

 

[MAUSERWERKE]

26,000 beers at an average of $12 is $312,000 x 8 home games in nearly $2.5 mil.

There's Lyle's buyout for the most part.

I expect UT operates the beer sales (and all of the other stuff sold at the stadium), as a concession. That is, the concessionaire pays the university a portion of its net revenues or profit from the sales of the goods. Your's is a gross revenue number. Take out of that the cost of goods sold, employee compensation, transportation costs, costs of insurance, etc. Probably considerably less than half of your number. Then some percentage of what's left (the concessionaire's profit) is paid to the university. So, not nearly so much as you have stated actually goes to UT.

I would be curious to know the gross revenue raised from the sale of beer and other concessions, on average, are sold at the stadium each game? Anyone know?

 

[TheDeeble]

So, if I hear you right, you’re saying a buyout is more than just a lovely parting gift?

Interesting.

If they sign someone to a 5 or 6 year contract and want to fire him after year 2, where's the weight of signing a contract if they school owes nothing for breaking the contract several years early?

At the same time, I think there should be a coach paid buyout if he wants to leave early for a job at a different school. Like when Kiffin bolted on us for USC. I think the buyout for that was only 500k and probably paid by USC. If I were a university I'd want a higher amount for the coach to leave us early if the coach is wanting a high buyout for being fired early.

 

[MAUSERWERKE]

I don’t get some of the fans complaining about a $3M or $4M yearly contract. Lots of the same fans want to pay a “proven” coach $7-$10M a year to make sure Tenn gets a winner. Then you get stuck with a Harbaugh, Malzahn, and possibly Fisher.
The super large contracts drive up the price for average coaches. People like Pruitt can now make a million a year as a DC. You think they are coming here for even $2M to take on being a HC, no way.
I’m sure there are a couple of examples, but other than Saban and Meyer, could somebody show give me an example of paying huge money to a coach that brought a championship. Meyer was not actually paid huge money at Florida, so basically Saban.

Exactly this. There is a market for football coaches, just like there is a market for any kind of consultant or employee. It is foolish to think UT or any major program can hire a coach on terms that are significantly outside of what the market dictates.

 

[m1al]

No chit. Those numbers are staggering. I hate Jimmy Sexton.

Redirect your hate because Jimmy is not the problem.

 

[IPleadInsanity]

So the past few weeks I have read the posts on how we need to fire CJP and Staff and start over. The reality is the University simply cannot do that from a money standpoint. I am just going to use some dumb ranger math to break this down.

Butch Jones' last payment is scheduled for Feb 2021, that is 17 more months. 17x200k=$3,400,000M owed.

CJP and Staff would be owed roughly $15M if fired before Dec.

New staff and the infamous Proven P5 winner would cost anywhere from $20-25M.

I will round down Butch's cost to $3M and split the difference on new staff at $23M

3M+15M+23M=$41M............I don't care who the big boosters are, no one is going to float that cost. Love it or hate it; we are married to CJP for the next couple of years similar to when Auburn wanted to fire CGM last year. It could be worse, we could be like Texas A&M and signed a $75M guaranteed contract.

Why terminate all the coordinators/assistants again? Most of them have proven performance in their job description. Something normally looked at in the hiring process.

 

[MAUSERWERKE]

Except that Jimbo is winning and has won and is a proven winner. He doesn’t lose much so did I say winning at all? $75 mill guaranteed to a winner is nothing for a program of Tamu and UT size.

Well, right now, in his 2nd season he is sitting at 2-2 with losses to two admittedly top 10 teams. But they weren't really close losses either. Wins over TX State and Lamar. 2018 record of 9-4. What would UT fans be saying under the same circumstances?

I do think Fisher is a good football coach, but only time will tell whether he can produce the kind of records that most would expect a $75M contract to achieve. What if he goes 7-5 this season? Looking at their schedule it is certainly possible.

I keep saying this, but money doesn't guarantee anything in college football, or really much of anything in life. There are too many variables outside of any one person's control that affect the outcome. Certainly, the more you are willing to pay, the better the pool of candidates you are likely going to attract. But again, no guarantees.

 

['Boro-vol]

If they sign someone to a 5 or 6 year contract and want to fire him after year 2, where's the weight of signing a contract if they school owes nothing for breaking the contract several years early?

At the same time, I think there should be a coach paid buyout if he wants to leave early for a job at a different school. Like when Kiffin bolted on us for USC. I think the buyout for that was only 500k and probably paid by USC. If I were a university I'd want a higher amount for the coach to leave us early if the coach is wanting a high buyout for being fired early.

Yeah...I get it.

I was just kidding.

 

[TheDeeble]

I think people are getting caught up in the term "buyout" and thinking it's a special separate payout. It's a pre-negotiated fee for ending the contract early.

If a coach is paid 4 mil a year on a 6 year contract the school would owe 24 mil total for the 6 years. If the school decides they want to fire him after 3 years the buyout is just what the school and agent agree to for the remainder of the contract. It probably won't be the full remaining amount, but it will still be a substantial amount.

The problem with college coaches is schools need to keep coaches on a contract with at least 2-3 years remaining because otherwise it's viewed that the school may be losing confidence in him and it will hurt recruiting.

 

[TheDeeble]

Why terminate all the coordinators/assistants again? Most of them have proven performance in their job description. Something normally looked at in the hiring process.

A new coach will want his own staff. If he wants to keep some of the old staff and they agree to remain then great.

But look at any head coaching change and it's probably a complete staff turnover. Part of the reason Cutcliffe didn't take the UT head coaching job after Kiffin was that UT wouldn't let him bring the staff he wanted.

Cutcliffe couldn't bring full staff to UT; Decides to stay at Duke

 

[volmandu]

So the past few weeks I have read the posts on how we need to fire CJP and Staff and start over. The reality is the University simply cannot do that from a money standpoint. I am just going to use some dumb ranger math to break this down.

Butch Jones' last payment is scheduled for Feb 2021, that is 17 more months. 17x200k=$3,400,000M owed.

CJP and Staff would be owed roughly $15M if fired before Dec.

New staff and the infamous Proven P5 winner would cost anywhere from $20-25M.

I will round down Butch's cost to $3M and split the difference on new staff at $23M

3M+15M+23M=$41M............I don't care who the big boosters are, no one is going to float that cost. Love it or hate it; we are married to CJP for the next couple of years similar to when Auburn wanted to fire CGM last year. It could be worse, we could be like Texas A&M and signed a $75M guaranteed contract.

I think you are missing key points in the math. Here is the real MATH.

The current staff is being paid around 11 million a year (salaries), We hire a 7-8/year million head-coach (ours is close to 4) with few million dollar assistants (same as we have now), that goes higher by roughly 5 million.
Pruitt + staff buyout is 15 million.

Butch buyout is already incurring cost. That is there whether you keep Pruitt or fire him.

So firing Pruitt and hiring 'infamous' big name will cost you additional 20 million. If the coach we steal has a 5-6 million buyout of his own, lets make it 26 million on the higher side. We are still not accounting keeping any of the current coaches or them finding new jobs to offset the cost. (Pruitt does not have offset clause).

Now lets do cost of keeping Pruitt math:

We have 8 home games per season. if 25 thousand less people show up each game and cost of each ticket is averaged at $50 (spread out from 30 dollar tickets to $250 tickets), the lost revenue per game is 1.25 Million and total of 8 games is: 10 Million.
That is prior to revenue lost from concession stands, jersey sales and donations. Lets be conservative and put all that at 2 million. Now add bowl game revenues, anywhere from 1 million to 2.5 million. Lets just say 1 million.

That is total of 13 million revenue lost (conservative estimate) each year, compared to 25 million cost of firing Pruitt (inflated estimate). We will recoup Pruitt firing in 2 years and IF (big if) we hire a good coach, we make much more in years to come. Also buyouts are paid in installments to all the his is not taken right away.

Apart from Math, it is going to be a rebuild year for Pruitt anyways next year. 3 senior WRs, including 2 starters graduate and 2 additional WRs have left. Starting WRs in 2020: Palmer, Keyton and Tillman.
We will likely have a new QB (i hope so) at center : Mauer or Bailey
Our ILB depth in 2020 with Bituli graduating and others leaving: To'to'o, Jeremy Banks, JJ Peterson and Aaron Beasly. (1 LB, 1 converted, 1 LB is behind a converted and 1 is high school athelete).
Yes. OL/DL will get better but with new QB, inexperienced WRs and extremely thin depth at LBs , we will be rebuilding anyways even if Pruitt lands a #1 class full of LBs and WRs. Can you see year 3 being better than 6-6 ??

Do you trust Pruitt with round 2 of rebuild (in year 3 he should not be rebuilding, remember we fired Dooley in year 3).

So both from Cost and Coaching wise, I do not see keeping Pruitt as wise decision.


(For season opener against GAST only 75 thousand showed up and BYU game had less than 75 thousand)

 

[OldLofter]

I truly wonder if butch hasn’t gone for a real job as a final FU to UT. It’s either that or his agent, who I assume is Sexton, loves to screw UT over. I mean an intern at Bama? That’s poetry right there. I believe it was in his contract about he was to find some kind of employment to receive his buyouts, what a way to drain UT.

It appeared to be the only thing available for him. I don’t think there were a lot of schools calling his agent.

 

[MAUSERWERKE]

I think people are getting caught up in the term "buyout" and thinking it's a special separate payout. It's a pre-negotiated fee for ending the contract early.

If a coach is paid 4 mil a year on a 6 year contract the school would owe 24 mil total for the 6 years. If the school decides they want to fire him after 3 years the buyout is just what the school and agent agree to for the remainder of the contract. It probably won't be the full remaining amount, but it will still be a substantial amount.

The problem with college coaches is schools need to keep coaches on a contract with at least 2-3 years remaining because otherwise it's viewed that the school may be losing confidence in him and it will hurt recruiting.

Yes. In this context a "buyout" is what a program pays to a coach's current employer to hire him away. Technically, the amount that is owed is owed by the coach, but of course no coach will agree to move to a new program and be personally liable for the buyout, so the new employer pays it. Kiffin's buyout was criminally low. $750K? Mike Hamilton had to be the dumbest AD in the history of sports.

 

[m1al]

I think you are missing key points in the math. Here is the real MATH.

The current staff is being paid around 11 million a year (salaries), We hire a 7-8/year million head-coach (ours is close to 4) with few million dollar assistants (same as we have now), that goes higher by roughly 5 million.
Pruitt + staff buyout is 15 million.

Butch buyout is already incurring cost. That is there whether you keep Pruitt or fire him.

So firing Pruitt and hiring 'infamous' big name will cost you additional 20 million. If the coach we steal has a 5-6 million buyout of his own, lets make it 26 million on the higher side. We are still not accounting keeping any of the current coaches or them finding new jobs to offset the cost. (Pruitt does not have offset clause).

Now lets do cost of keeping Pruitt math:

We have 8 home games per season. if 25 thousand less people show up each game and cost of each ticket is averaged at $50 (spread out from 30 dollar tickets to $250 tickets), the lost revenue per game is 1.25 Million and total of 8 games is: 10 Million.
That is prior to revenue lost from concession stands, jersey sales and donations. Lets be conservative and put all that at 2 million. Now add bowl game revenues, anywhere from 1 million to 2.5 million. Lets just say 1 million.

That is total of 13 million revenue lost (conservative estimate) each year, compared to 25 million cost of firing Pruitt (inflated estimate). We will recoup Pruitt firing in 2 years and IF (big if) we hire a good coach, we make much more in years to come. Also buyouts are paid in installments to all the his is not taken right away.

Apart from Math, it is going to be a rebuild year for Pruitt anyways next year. 3 senior WRs, including 2 starters graduate and 2 additional WRs have left. Starting WRs in 2020: Palmer, Keyton and Tillman.
We will likely have a new QB (i hope so) at center : Mauer or Bailey
Our ILB depth in 2020 with Bituli graduating and others leaving: To'to'o, Jeremy Banks, JJ Peterson and Aaron Beasly. (1 LB, 1 converted, 1 LB is behind a converted and 1 is high school athelete).
Yes. OL/DL will get better but with new QB, inexperienced WRs and extremely thin depth at LBs , we will be rebuilding anyways even if Pruitt lands a #1 class full of LBs and WRs. Can you see year 3 being better than 6-6 ??

Do you trust Pruitt with round 2 of rebuild (in year 3 he should not be rebuilding, remember we fired Dooley in year 3).

So both from Cost and Coaching wise, I do not see keeping Pruitt as wise decision.


(For season opener against GAST only 75 thousand showed up and BYU game had less than 75 thousand)

The administration obviously can’t do that kind of math or at least they haven’t shown that ability up to now.

 

[DCRockyTop]

I have always thought if I was AD, I would negotiate contracts as follows: higher salary, little-to-no buyout for firing, OR, lower salary with larger buyout. No way I offer insane salary amount and high buyout number without being tied to some sort of results review.