Buyout Reality

#76

rltw1974

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#76
I think you are missing key points in the math. Here is the real MATH.

The current staff is being paid around 11 million a year (salaries), We hire a 7-8/year million head-coach (ours is close to 4) with few million dollar assistants (same as we have now), that goes higher by roughly 5 million.
Pruitt + staff buyout is 15 million.

Butch buyout is already incurring cost. That is there whether you keep Pruitt or fire him.

So firing Pruitt and hiring 'infamous' big name will cost you additional 20 million. If the coach we steal has a 5-6 million buyout of his own, lets make it 26 million on the higher side. We are still not accounting keeping any of the current coaches or them finding new jobs to offset the cost. (Pruitt does not have offset clause).

Now lets do cost of keeping Pruitt math:

We have 8 home games per season. if 25 thousand less people show up each game and cost of each ticket is averaged at $50 (spread out from 30 dollar tickets to $250 tickets), the lost revenue per game is 1.25 Million and total of 8 games is: 10 Million.
That is prior to revenue lost from concession stands, jersey sales and donations. Lets be conservative and put all that at 2 million. Now add bowl game revenues, anywhere from 1 million to 2.5 million. Lets just say 1 million.

That is total of 13 million revenue lost (conservative estimate) each year, compared to 25 million cost of firing Pruitt (inflated estimate). We will recoup Pruitt firing in 2 years and IF (big if) we hire a good coach, we make much more in years to come. Also buyouts are paid in installments to all the his is not taken right away.

Apart from Math, it is going to be a rebuild year for Pruitt anyways next year. 3 senior WRs, including 2 starters graduate and 2 additional WRs have left. Starting WRs in 2020: Palmer, Keyton and Tillman.
We will likely have a new QB (i hope so) at center : Mauer or Bailey
Our ILB depth in 2020 with Bituli graduating and others leaving: To'to'o, Jeremy Banks, JJ Peterson and Aaron Beasly. (1 LB, 1 converted, 1 LB is behind a converted and 1 is high school athelete).
Yes. OL/DL will get better but with new QB, inexperienced WRs and extremely thin depth at LBs , we will be rebuilding anyways even if Pruitt lands a #1 class full of LBs and WRs. Can you see year 3 being better than 6-6 ??

Do you trust Pruitt with round 2 of rebuild (in year 3 he should not be rebuilding, remember we fired Dooley in year 3).

So both from Cost and Coaching wise, I do not see keeping Pruitt as wise decision.


(For season opener against GAST only 75 thousand showed up and BYU game had less than 75 thousand)
Your cost analysis is valid and I didn't look at the monies thru that lens. However, I still don't think the UT Administration is going to pull the trigger because of the buyout for CJP and Staff.............the projected lost revenue is not enough to the decision makers to justify paying Butch and CJP in my opinion.
 
#77

teeball

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#77
From my understanding Butch's buyout would drop significantly if he got a head coaching job some place. Supposedly if he doesn't get paid as much as he did here, we'd make up the difference, I believe this is why he never tried to get a HC job any place right after here. So if the rumor of him wanting the Rutgers job is true and he gets it, that'd be a help to us.
Probably not. Rutgers would probably pull a "Saban" and pay him a pittance of a salary and let UT continue to pick up the lion's share of his salary. It's the Tennessee way!
 
#78

m1al

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#78
I have always thought if I was AD, I would negotiate contracts as follows: higher salary, little-to-no buyout for firing, OR, lower salary with larger buyout. No way I offer insane salary amount and high buyout number without being tied to some sort of results review.
Merit based salary. You do well, I’ll pay you well. You suck, well bye....

Edit: I should’ve prefaced this with if you are an up and comer like we seem to always hire.
 
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#79

37620VOL

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#79
I'd like to see your contract estimations on getting a "proven P5 winner" and staff for $20M.
I could see it if you dropped $7m for Patterson, $5m for staff, plus $8m in buyouts; he has a contract through 2024. Urban might be cheaper; you could probably get him plus staff for $15m.
 
#80

tnmarktx

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#80
So the past few weeks I have read the posts on how we need to fire CJP and Staff and start over. The reality is the University simply cannot do that from a money standpoint. I am just going to use some dumb ranger math to break this down.

Butch Jones' last payment is scheduled for Feb 2021, that is 17 more months. 17x200k=$3,400,000M owed.

CJP and Staff would be owed roughly $15M if fired before Dec.

New staff and the infamous Proven P5 winner would cost anywhere from $20-25M.

I will round down Butch's cost to $3M and split the difference on new staff at $23M

3M+15M+23M=$41M............I don't care who the big boosters are, no one is going to float that cost. Love it or hate it; we are married to CJP for the next couple of years similar to when Auburn wanted to fire CGM last year. It could be worse, we could be like Texas A&M and signed a $75M guaranteed contract.
Could be paid. Doesn't matter, Fulmer's/booster's ego that they made a mistake getting their guy will keep Pruitt here most likely for another 4 years. Best we can hope for is that he learns how to be a good coach.
 
#81

OldLofter

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#81
So the past few weeks I have read the posts on how we need to fire CJP and Staff and start over. The reality is the University simply cannot do that from a money standpoint. I am just going to use some dumb ranger math to break this down.

Butch Jones' last payment is scheduled for Feb 2021, that is 17 more months. 17x200k=$3,400,000M owed.

CJP and Staff would be owed roughly $15M if fired before Dec.

New staff and the infamous Proven P5 winner would cost anywhere from $20-25M.

I will round down Butch's cost to $3M and split the difference on new staff at $23M

3M+15M+23M=$41M............I don't care who the big boosters are, no one is going to float that cost. Love it or hate it; we are married to CJP for the next couple of years similar to when Auburn wanted to fire CGM last year. It could be worse, we could be like Texas A&M and signed a $75M guaranteed contract.
I can’t confirm if your numbers are close to reality, but your general point is spot on. Something many posters on this board have ignored.
I think Coach Fulmer gave us a hint about UTAD’s financial situation a few months ago when he went “really vague “ when talking about updates to the stadium. They don’t have the money! Better hope beer sales go up!
GBO
 
#82

rltw1974

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#82
OldLofter-----You are more than likely correct in that this is more than likely a vastly over simplified version of the current situation as it relates to UT and money right now.
 
#83

Russdaddy2027

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#83
He proved what he was as a HC week 1 man.

There is almost NO record of a successful HC starting his second season off as badly as we have. He can’t close a season good and he can’t open a season good, and from the looked of it right now, the middle of the season isn’t going to be too fun to watch either.
So the solution then would be to fire him

completely blow any chance of a successful recruiting class

hire another unproven assistant from somewhere (UT aint gonna land a hall of famer in waiting at this point and couldn't pay them if they were interested)

Sounds alot like trying to dig a deeper hole to me. We don't have to like the reality the program is in. Obviously we don't have to accept the reality the program is in. We have no affect on the reality the program is in.

***All we can do is hope our reality improves with the coach we have.***
 
#84

Roustabout

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#84
So the past few weeks I have read the posts on how we need to fire CJP and Staff and start over. The reality is the University simply cannot do that from a money standpoint. I am just going to use some dumb ranger math to break this down.

Butch Jones' last payment is scheduled for Feb 2021, that is 17 more months. 17x200k=$3,400,000M owed.

CJP and Staff would be owed roughly $15M if fired before Dec.

New staff and the infamous Proven P5 winner would cost anywhere from $20-25M.

I will round down Butch's cost to $3M and split the difference on new staff at $23M

3M+15M+23M=$41M............I don't care who the big boosters are, no one is going to float that cost. Love it or hate it; we are married to CJP for the next couple of years similar to when Auburn wanted to fire CGM last year. It could be worse, we could be like Texas A&M and signed a $75M guaranteed contract.
The details are what matters.
Unlike Butch, the rest of this staff would have buyouts mitigated by their next jobs. I can’t believe UT has not sued butch as most of these contracts require the coach to pursue comparable work. He hasn’t.
 
#86

TheDeeble

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#86
Yes. In this context a "buyout" is what a program pays to a coach's current employer to hire him away. Technically, the amount that is owed is owed by the coach, but of course no coach will agree to move to a new program and be personally liable for the buyout, so the new employer pays it. Kiffin's buyout was criminally low. $750K? Mike Hamilton had to be the dumbest AD in the history of sports.
Yea, that's where I think a school should be more forceful, but I'm also not sure how what works with assistants. If a school owes a head coach 50% of his remaining contract if they fire him at year "x", I think the same amount should be owed by the coach if he voluntarily leaves for another job. Yes that coach won't really be the one to pay it, the hiring university would, but I think the amounts should be equal.
 
#87

m1al

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#87
The details are what matters.
Unlike Butch, the rest of this staff would have buyouts mitigated by their next jobs. I can’t believe UT has not sued butch as most of these contracts require the coach to pursue comparable work. He hasn’t.
Tells you a lot about the guy IMO. Nothing we didn’t already know. He rather live off the tit.
 
#88

pimo1

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#88
I'd like to see your contract estimations on getting a "proven P5 winner" and staff for $20M.
Pruitt coast us 15m and had no head coaching experiance. UT is not a stable environment for a coach ot come to... adding up those 2 things and applying logic means if Pritt cost us 15M then a new 'proven' staff will cost substantially more. I think 20-25M is a conservative estimate

And there is no way in heck anyone coming here without a HUGE buyout. Thats the leverage both Jones and Pruitt had when they came because the program is so unstable. No one is banging our doors down looking for the job if you guys haven't figured that out over the last Decade i'm sorry for ya. Until they prove they are gonna give coaches a fair change to 'play' out their contracts big buyouts are gonna be the thing. if Pruitt is still struggling year 4 that story changes. At that point Jones' buyout is paid off and no one can really say that 4 years isn't enough time. Trust me we will be bowling next year and competing seriously for the east in year 4 off the sheer fact we are an SEC program. Pruitt can recruit and that goes without saying. He has the guys coming in. We just gotta give it time to play out.

JG was the guy he got stuck with. He isn't the best QB in the world but I think hes the best on our roster by a fair margin. We can win with him because there are worse QB's starting in the SEC winning. Just give it time worst case we flame out this year and it clears the decks for our incoming savior next year. Plus we have a proven grad transfer in the wings also.
 
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#89

rltw1974

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#89
Pruitt coast us 15m and had no head coaching experiance. UT is not a stable environment for a coach ot come to... adding up those 2 things and applying logic means if Pritt cost us 15M then a new 'proven' staff will cost substantially more. I think 20-25M is a conservative estimate
It literally just hit me CJP signed a 6 year deal and gets paid $3.8M annually...that is $22.8M over six years.
 
#92

chattavol420

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#92
Why could Pruitt not say no? Sure he could have said no. There will be plenty of other head coaching jobs out there.

Fulmer wanted him. Coaching buyouts are like taxes. They're ingrained into the system and aren't going away. Especially when a head coach is pursued by a team that's one of the worst in the Power 5. A buyout helps protect the coach from being blamed for previous coaching debacles. It helps to ensure a new head coach has time to work with his staff and his recruits.

No. There weren’t plenty of other head coaching jobs out there for Pruitt. I’d never heard his name mentioned as a head coaching candidate at any other school
 
#93

TheDeeble

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#93
No. There weren’t plenty of other head coaching jobs out there for Pruitt. I’d never heard his name mentioned as a head coaching candidate at any other school
Maybe there weren't other head coach jobs at that point, but there are usually several every year. He was under no rush to accept Tennessee.

Pruitt was a successful D-Coordinator and coached on two national championship winning teams. When he decided he wanted to pursue head coaching, there would be offers.
 
#95

'Boro-vol

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#95
I can’t confirm if your numbers are close to reality, but your general point is spot on. Something many posters on this board have ignored.
I think Coach Fulmer gave us a hint about UTAD’s financial situation a few months ago when he went “really vague “ when talking about updates to the stadium. They don’t have the money! Better hope beer sales go up!
GBO
Maybe they need to impose a "3 drink minimum" for all attendees....which shouldn't be a stretch if our trajectory continues they way it looks.

Gotta pump those numbers up.....
 
#98

Visiting Dawg

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#98
CJP and Staff would be owed roughly $15M if fired before Dec.
Out of all your figures, this one is the only one that matters. You are paying the buyout to Jones regardless. You are going to be paying a staff regardless. So the only real additional expense is the roughly 15 mil it takes to buy out Pruitt and his staff.

Now, I don't have a dog in this hunt and I'm not going to opine on whether Pruitt gets it done or not. My point is strictly from a financial point of view. If Pruitt continues to flounder and attendance drops, merchandise and concessions fall and the brand is further damaged, 15 mil over the course of 3 seasons COULD be a drop in the bucket when measured in terms of lost real dollars and damage to the brand long term.

If JP can't get it turned around and win at least 4 or 5 games in a very weak SECE and UAB still on schedule, the numbers game will get dicey. Sometimes the best financial move is to cut loses and move on esp if the ROI starts looking shady at best.
 
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Fire Pruitt. Promote Cheney, make Tee the OC. If we are going to keep hiring coordinators, hell, let’s at least hire our own like Clemson did with Dabo and like FSU did with Jimbo. Keep continuity within the staff and system.
This is our luck If the season ended today:

Pruitt fired
Staff leaves

All take lesser jobs
Leaving UT on the hook
Class falls apart

We’re proud to introduce

Jim Bob Mulletnation as coach
 

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