Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

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#172,176
#172,176
Smokeytom said:
Inductive arguments are the arguments we make when we cannot know something for 100% certainty. Meaning that even if we assume the truth of the premises of an argument it is not guaranteed that the conclusion will follow absolutely. So, inductive arguments boil down to who has the best evidence and ability to persuade in support of their argument.

We’re making inductive arguments right now. You’re support is past years failures. My support is the continuity of the staff and players.

What’s funny here is that my expectations are only 1 win above yours. I’m happy with 7-5. However, Pruitt’s visible confidence and Chaney’s known X’s and O’s prowess have me gearing towards us pulling an upset somewhere (preferably The Swamp) and finishing 8-4.
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What do you know for 100 percent certainty about this team?
 
#172,177
#172,177
gunner said:
I have heard these same arguments for years, over and over again. Many of the same last season when Pruitt took over from Butch.

All I’m saying is don’t expect too much this season. No one knows for certain what will happen this fall except for beating a few no names on the schedule.
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I expect to have a better coached and prepared team that plays tough for 4 quarters. No idea how many wins that will be, but I am going to enjoy watching them play.
 
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#172,178
#172,178
Kingston Vol said:
This is why I'm splitting the difference.
7-5. Two game improvement, and we find a loss somewhere that really hurts.
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That’s probably where I’ll end up. I was thinking about it and I’m pretty sure that I’ve overshot the win total in my preseason predictions for the last decade.

So much for being a negavol 😂
 
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#172,180
#172,180
chavisut said:
That’s probably where I’ll end up. I was thinking about it and I’m pretty sure that I’ve overshot the win total in my preseason predictions for the last decade.

So much for being a negavol 😂
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hahahaha same.

2017 really sticks out to me. I took so much **** for saying 6 wins would be a really good season. Everyone was at 8 wins minimum and we all know how that year went.
 
#172,184
#172,184
DancingVol said:
He told the coaches he was done AFTER he spoke to the team doctor. So, unless you were in on the conversation he had with the medical team at length Tuesday, went with him for treatment Wednesday, and spoke to the medical team again Wednesday and Thursday, you simply don’t have all of the facts. And if you were in on those conversations, then your ethics need to be addressed as well as your HIPAA violations.
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You haven't refuted a single fact in my post. He made a personal choice, which he is entitled to make, as everybody has acknowledged. And people are entitled to feel however they want to feel about that choice.
 
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#172,185
#172,185
I did refute your statement that he quit after being moved to guard and fell down the depth chart. That had zero to do with him leaving football and to say such is simply false. He had zero problems playing guard as he played that position most of last season. You are most definitely entitled to your own opinion. But that is exactly what it is. Your opinion. He retired from football and it was his choice.
 
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#172,186
#172,186
Kingston Vol said:
There is an echo chamber of optimism around these parts this time of the year and I think we all fall victim to it. This time last year I was convinced we were going to beat WVU and play UF very close. We were all absolutely sure Tyson Helton would be great and the offensive line "couldn't be as bad as last year."

I think it's just a flaw of the human brain. We allow ourselves to make a ton of false assumptions because we want those things to be true. We won't truly "know" anything until we line up vs. BYU. Everything else, both positive and negative, is all guesswork.
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That’s what Bobby Bowden means when he says everyone is undefeated in the preseason. 😀
 
#172,187
#172,187
vol2002 said:
Yep. Been down this road plenty in recent years. The best way to think about the Florida game is to: 1) acknowledge that the 2- and 3-stars on their roster that come from the state of Florida are likely equal to or better than most of our 3-stars and some of our 4-stars; 2) our team has a lot of flaws as well and 3) they almost always get up for the game against us and they want to beat us every year.

Doesn’t mean we can’t win. But it does mean it will probably be a dog fight that could go either way, and the breaks normally go against us.
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We'll just need to Put On More Steam!
 
#172,188
#172,188
Smokeytom said:
God that’s so fair and so easily foreseeable that it already hurts.
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Here's how I'm seeing it: we beat MSU, USC and UK. We're all feeling really good even though we've lost to our three main rivals.

…..then Missouri blows us out and we lose to Vandy close.

It's the perfect #VOLol season because it gives both the positive and negative fans enough to feel like they were right.

"A two game improvement with wins over a handful of good teams!"

"We lost to our rivals and **** the bed down the stretch!"

"It's a depth issue! We just ran out of gas to end the year."

"We need another good recruiting class to get where we want to be."
 
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#172,189
#172,189
gunner said:
What’s the logic? Please explain.
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Different variables = different outcome

Upgraded talent and coordinators, better S&C, a much improved culture, another year of experience for the HC and a more favorable schedule should lead to a more favorable outcome. You have a right to your projections, which is the same thing everybody else is doing-- projecting. But if we are improving the things that matter, it should be reflected where it counts-- on the field.
 
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#172,191
#172,191
MrVolton said:
Not LA Vol, but this article explains a lot IMO. Not a lot of opinion and assumption in it, just facts and logic. We were just a field goal away from 6-6 last year, and it is inevitable that we will improve in most areas while some of our opponents will regress. How that translates to wins/losses will depend on the breaks.

Phil Steele Experience Chart: How the SEC stacks up in 2019

The info in this article is partly why I am not ready to concede the Missouri or Mississippi State games. The coaches of both teams inherited programs from coaches that were historically the best ever at these respective programs (Pinkel and Mullen), and both of which were exceptional at evaluating and developing talent. Both programs just lost huge amounts of that talent, and as Pinkel and Mullen’s rosters bleed out, we’ll begin to see if Odom and Moorehead are on par with their predecessors. Missouri basically lost their entire OL, and I’m not ready to crown Kelly just yet. Mullen was especially good at evaluating and developing QB, DB, and DL while at Miss State, and that’s where they were hit the hardest. I think the Vols take at least one of those games.

It will be hard for both Vandy and UK to avoid taking steps back as well. Vandy lost a longtime starter at QB and a longtime, and highly underrated, OC. UK lost generational talent at RB and pass rusher, not to mention a lot on OL and in their secondary. I think the Vols take both of those games.

On the flip side, I think S. Carolina will be our toughest game this year outside of Bama, UGA, and Florida. Partly because of the info in this article, and partly because of where they fall on our schedule. As much as it pains me to say it, I think the Vols lose that one.

It’s almost a lock that we will be improved in all areas, except DL. 7-5 is the most likely result for us, and Vegas odds seem to back that up. I do think that if we rise up and steal game 4 in Gainesville and stay healthy, we could end up winning as much as 9.
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That’s an example of an expert opinion. But, it’s still just that an opinion and in no way a certainty. Just an educated opinion.
 
#172,195
#172,195
gunner said:
That’s an example of an expert opinion. But, it’s still just that an opinion and in no way a certainty. Just an educated opinion.
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Not really. Returning experience is quantitative. Rankings based on that data may involve some opinion when the numbers are close, but in the case of this article, the subjectivity is very low.
 
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