Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

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#165,626
#165,626
nicksjuzunk said:
I have a family health issue within my crew that has recently come to light and we need to work through it here with our healthcare system vs. Thailand. The decision was very much out of my hands and I’m admittedly struggling with it

Fully intend to return in July 2020. Currently sorting through the logistical nightmare of the whole thing with everything we own being in Thailand, needing to continue to rent our house there, find a sitter for our dog, probably losing our return tickets and needing a new ticket to return for a couple of weeks next month to work things out on the ground level

Tough place to be right now, but 100% the right call
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Thoughts and prayers from me as well
 
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#165,627
#165,627
ChattaTNVol said:
I think the raw returning production numbers are a better data point to use for analysis than Bill’s adjustments and the principle reason is he doesn’t include the offensive line for the offense and he doesn’t distinguish between the position groups on defense either.

The offensive line in the SEC is the heart and soul of the offense. So last year he had Florida at #21 in total raw returning production but because of their 4-7 record in 2017 he adjusted their overall returning production down to #62. He had them ranked overall at #32 preseason but by the end of the season they had climbed all the way up to #9 in his analysis.

Phil Steele had Florida’s offensive line ranked as #9 in the nation based on returning career starts. Bill can’t seemed to figure out when that matters and when it doesn’t. If you have good skill positions, see Auburn who he adjusted their returning production last year up from a raw ranking of #47 to an adjusted ranking of #6 preseason because they had a good season in 2017, but don’t have an offensive line (#114 according to Phil Steele). then you’re going to have a hard time doing anything consistently on the offensive side of the ball.

I think the same applies on defense. The secondary is critical regardless of whether you are in a 4-3 or 3-4 so he relies for the most part on returning production for the secondary. In reality in a 4-3 the defensive line is more important than the linebackers and in a 3-4 the linebackers are more important than the defensive line. He doesn’t even try to capture the differences from what I can see. He uses a cookie cutter approach and because he doesn’t have a lot of competent competition it’s good enough. And now since ESPN bought him off, both FPI and S&P+ are under the same roof.

When these guys come out with their numbers I try to dig into them to see what they’re based on and then see if that makes sense to me. For example, Jesse Simonton wrote an article in May in which he declared that based on his deep-dive into the PFF database we had the worst redzone offense in the SEC last year. That was incredibly misleading if not patently false. We had the 4th best red-zone offense in the conference last year and were ranked first against conference competition. We were 2nd best in the conference at scoring TDs against fellow SEC teams when we were in the red-zone. He measures our red-zone offense by the absolute total number of TDs we score from the red-zone and consequently misses the forest because of the trees. The facts are that if we got into the red-zone last year we had tremendous success. Our problem was not being able to get into the red-zone in the first place not what we did when we actually did make it. I could not believe that he would write something so stupidly absurd.

Anyway, my point is, when the guys publish their opinions, it’s most often my experience that before you bet the farm, either way, you should exercise a bit of scrutiny on their basis and methodology for developing such opinions, no matter who they are. Due diligence. No one can do that for you, well, except me. You can trust me. jmo.
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Good stuff. Is there an article where he explains all what he uses for the projection? I only remember he found a lower correlation for OL, but I figured it was still included to a smaller degree. Though I also remember him also decrying no real way to judge the returning OL performance individually. Tough spot.

And that Jesse Simonton anecdote is hilarious. He needed a deep dive to figure out we reached the RZ less than anyone else in the league and then comes to a RZ Conversion determination that we were therefore the worst? Ouch.
 
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#165,629
#165,629
nicksjuzunk said:
I have a family health issue within my crew that has recently come to light and we need to work through it here with our healthcare system vs. Thailand. The decision was very much out of my hands and I’m admittedly struggling with it

Fully intend to return in July 2020. Currently sorting through the logistical nightmare of the whole thing with everything we own being in Thailand, needing to continue to rent our house there, find a sitter for our dog, probably losing our return tickets and needing a new ticket to return for a couple of weeks next month to work things out on the ground level

Tough place to be right now, but 100% the right call
Click to expand...
Prayers your way. Hopefully it all is in the rear view mirror in short order. If there is anything that Volnation can do to help, please don't hesitate to ask.
 
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#165,634
#165,634
Brillovol said:
Last year, we ended at 108th in the country in scoring offense at 22.8 PPG. Expect big gains here this year to bring us closer to 30 PPG.
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I’d imagine so - especially if the offensive line takes a jump.

Even if it doesn’t, there are ways to scheme around it that Helton refused (or wasn’t allowed to) implement. I think Chaney will be much better in that regard - and have the mandate from the HC to do so.
 
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#165,636
#165,636
nicksjuzunk said:
I have a family health issue within my crew that has recently come to light and we need to work through it here with our healthcare system vs. Thailand. The decision was very much out of my hands and I’m admittedly struggling with it

Fully intend to return in July 2020. Currently sorting through the logistical nightmare of the whole thing with everything we own being in Thailand, needing to continue to rent our house there, find a sitter for our dog, probably losing our return tickets and needing a new ticket to return for a couple of weeks next month to work things out on the ground level

Tough place to be right now, but 100% the right call
Click to expand...


Prayers sent for you, and your family.
James Chapter 5 , 13-15

Fortunately for us, the Lord is still at work.
 
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#165,638
#165,638
Going back over National RotY rankings, I noticed Tee was runner-up twice before he outright won it in 2016. While Pruitt won the title in 2012, he was also #1 in 2013, but was not awarded the title that year (apparently they don't strictly go off rankings, because Nieds was ranked #2 this past cycle, but given the title). Which got me thinking - man our staff has a ton of 1st and 2nd places dating back to 2012.

Just how many? SIX...out of only 16 possible spots. That's about 38% of all first-place and runner-up spots.

The only other current staff that even reaches 2 is Georgia. All others have only 1 by this metric.
 
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#165,639
#165,639
Kingston Vol said:
That’s a good point. How long was he there and did they promote from within?
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Ludwig had been there since 2015, had an impressive resume as OC at multiple stops prior to the Vandy gig. They promoted from within, guy named Gdowski. Has also been there since 2015, but doesn’t have nearly as good a track record as Ludwig had.
 
#165,640
#165,640
rocktopper16 said:
BYU ain’t no slouch. Tend to play better against higher ranked opponents “Wisconsin”

That game Imo, will determine how much we’ve progressed.
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The idea of determining progress on 1 outing, which includes tons of variance, I've always found to be an odd idea.

I'd rather go by something like what Chatta cooks up with his analysis of how we do vs other SEC teams. If our metrics improve across our entire SEC schedule, I'll take that as a good measuring stick for how far we've come in a year.

Of course you may have just been saying BYU is our first real test, which is absolutely true. I don't like these warm up openers (Ga St) that tell us nothing. It's almost like we have to patiently wait till week 2 to find out anything meaningful about Team 123 the 2019 squad.
 
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#165,641
#165,641
nicksjuzunk said:
I have a family health issue within my crew that has recently come to light and we need to work through it here with our healthcare system vs. Thailand. The decision was very much out of my hands and I’m admittedly struggling with it

Fully intend to return in July 2020. Currently sorting through the logistical nightmare of the whole thing with everything we own being in Thailand, needing to continue to rent our house there, find a sitter for our dog, probably losing our return tickets and needing a new ticket to return for a couple of weeks next month to work things out on the ground level

Tough place to be right now, but 100% the right call
Click to expand...

Prayers my friend. I may have some tickets for you if a game is in order this fall.
 
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#165,643
#165,643
Devo182 said:
Going back over National RotY rankings, I noticed Tee was runner-up twice before he outright won it in 2016. While Pruitt won the title in 2012, he was also #1 in 2013, but was not awarded the title that year (apparently they don't strictly go off rankings, because Nieds was ranked #2 this past cycle, but given the title). Which got me thinking - man our staff has a ton of 1st and 2nd places dating back to 2012.

Just how many? SIX...out of only 16 possible spots. That's about 38% of all first-place and runner-up spots.

The only other current staff that even reaches 2 is Georgia. All others have only 1 by this metric.
Click to expand...
That's pretty amazingly unbelievable!
 
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#165,649
#165,649
Thanks for the prayers and kind words everyone

A lot of people don’t get it because we are “home” and think it’s going to be great but it’s much more complicated than that.

Imagine going on vacation with your family and finding out while you were there that there was a health issue, and now you must remain in this vacationing country where you have nothing except your packed bags. Your job, friends, dog and 95% of your possessions remain at home.

It is a blessing to be with family here but to say my world has been completely turned on it’s head is an understatement and I’m struggling with the loss of control. I literally cannot even decide the country I live in at the moment.

Just a little raw moment from me... I know all the “right” answers, but I’m pretty authentic with how I feel about this process in this moment
✌🏻
 
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#165,650
#165,650
nicksjuzunk said:
Thanks for the prayers and kind words everyone

A lot of people don’t get it because we are “home” and think it’s going to be great but it’s much more complicated than that.

Imagine going on vacation with your family and finding out while you were there that there was a health issue, and now you must remain in this vacationing country where you have nothing except your packed bags. Your job, friends, dog and 95% of your possessions remain at home.

It is a blessing to be with family here but to say my word has been completely turned on it’s head is an understatement and I’m struggling with the loss of control. I literally cannot even decide the country I live in at the moment.

Just a little raw moment from me... I know all the “right” answers, but I’m pretty authentic with how I feel about this process in this moment
✌🏻
Click to expand...

Sometimes we all just need a “raw moment”. Praying, anything else you and family need, besides support?
 
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