Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

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#158,626
#158,626
Devo182 said:
A lot of discussion of 6 wins vs 7,8, even 9.

So here is how I came to 6 wins and 7 wins being equally likely, using game by game predictions. Post your own and I'll reply to you with your simulator outcomes.

Opponent Win% Prediction
Ga St 100%
BYU 80%
Chattanooga 100%
@Florida 30%
Georgia 15%
Miss St 40%
@Alabama 5%
South Carolina 45%
UAB 90%
@kentucky 70%
@Missouri 35%
Vanderbilt 50%

Final record Odds
10-2 1%
9-3 5%
8-4 19%
7-5 26%
6-6 27%
5-7 17%
4-8 4%

Bowl 79%
8-4 or better - 25% PLEASE DEAR GOD
Click to expand...
Maybe you don't have the data to answer this question, but I'm curious how 8 wins is more likely than 5, but 6 wins is more likely than 7.

Weighting the outcomes generates 6.52 wins. Can anyone say "meh"?
 
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#158,627
#158,627
Vfl2407 said:
By your take, we lose 5 in a row after Chatt.
That would be BRUTAL for fan interest and Recruiting.
MSU Is a critical game.
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pretty much agree. i think the USCe and MSU games are pretty critical to the overall perception of the season.

in the end, it's 6 games. those two + MO, Vandy, UF and UK. gotta win 3-4 of those games, period. siap yesterday, i'm almost to the point where i don't care which 3-4, but your post is why it's only "almost". i do think that stretch, while not near as difficult as some have been lately, if you drop those 5 games int he middle and win the other 7, while the 7-5 is better, that's over a month of "ugh"......

and that's how you wind up wiht a 7-5 record that most will tell you today that's ok, then you see it happen like that, and then all the sudden, it's not as ok as you originally thought it'd be lol.
 
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#158,629
#158,629
Vfl2407 said:
By your take, we lose 5 in a row after Chatt.
That would be BRUTAL for fan interest and Recruiting.
MSU Is a critical game.
Click to expand...

Negative ghost rider. Probabilities highly favor winning 1, as Dimond kindly calculated for us, and about a 40% shot at winning 2 of them. Being favorites or not isn't that important, just margins. And I think MSU and USC will be every bit of dogfights. UF is quite winnable.
 
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#158,630
#158,630
VolGee4 said:
Thanks. My in laws’ place is on the other side of the island, but I think we have been there once. We now have 4 kids, so eating out is an adventure that we don’t do very often. Been to most places on Sullivan’s Island, various places in Mt. Pleasant, and do some takeout at places on IOP.
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yeah, my kids have finally gotten to the point where they can go in public and not be a nuisance :) so we enjoy getting out more now than we ever did before.....last year's trip we went out several times, had some great food. Charleston Crab house, 82 Queen, Morgan St, Red's Ice House.....good stuff!!!

i need to go to charleston again.
 
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#158,631
#158,631
Blake25p said:
I’m just not seeing it with Miss St. they lost a ton of talent from last year and the game is in Knoxville. I like our chances.
Click to expand...

They sure did. But Mullen also left a hell of a developmental and s&c program behind. Basically the opposite of what we are stilling digging out of. They will be an enigma, but I'd be shocked if they aren't a fundamentally sound, strong team. Shoop and their HC are really good coordinators too. Should be a pretty even match.
 
#158,633
#158,633
chargervol said:
I say go ahead and beat UF, MSU and SCjr. Takes the edge of worrying about reaching 7 wins later.
Any objections? Good, then it's settled. Make it so.
Click to expand...
yeah. agreed. you beat UF in september, things start to look up real quick, even with UGA and Bama looming.

you start to look at MSU and USCe a lot differently than we do today.........
 
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#158,637
#158,637
Chuckie said:
Maybe you don't have the data to answer this question, but I'm curious how 8 wins is more likely than 5, but 6 wins is more likely than 7.

Weighting the outcomes generates 6.52 wins. Can anyone say "meh"?
Click to expand...

It's a simulation and I rounded some numbers. Only 1,000 simulations, so you get some small variances that shouldn't really "be".

I originally made it for the 2017 season, accessible to all, and posted it to 247. You can submit your predictions and it tallies everyone's predictions, like a poll. 9-3 was most popular that year, followed by 8-4. 4-8 took up 0% of all outcomes lmao.
 
#158,639
#158,639
chargervol said:
Here's my outlook.. We don't know what will happen till it happens, may as well not know with optimism.


View attachment 209622
Click to expand...

"If this place is gonna be all positive, I'll just leave."

- Catbone (probably)

original.gif
 
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#158,640
#158,640
Devo182 said:
A lot of discussion of 6 wins vs 7,8, even 9.

So here is how I came to 6 wins and 7 wins being equally likely, using game by game predictions. Post your own and I'll reply to you with your simulator outcomes.

Opponent Win% Prediction
Ga St 100%
BYU 60%
Chattanooga 100%
@Florida 35%
Georgia 20%
Miss St 55%
@Alabama 1%
South Carolina 65%
UAB 99%
@kentucky 70%
@Missouri 30%
Vanderbilt 65%

Final record Odds
10-2 ?%
9-3 ?%
8-4 ?%
7-5 ?%
6-6 ?%
5-7 ?%
4-8 ?%

Bowl ?%
8-4 or better - ?% PLEASE DEAR GOD
Click to expand...

I love these! I think I varied mostly by like 5-10% from your probabilities, save for Vandy, Carolina, BYU, and State.
 
#158,642
#158,642
Devo182 said:
A lot of discussion of 6 wins vs 7,8, even 9.

So here is how I came to 6 wins and 7 wins being equally likely, using game by game predictions. Post your own and I'll reply to you with your simulator outcomes.

Opponent Win% Prediction
Ga St 100%
BYU 80%
Chattanooga 100%
@Florida 30%
Georgia 15%
Miss St 40%
@Alabama 5%
South Carolina 45%
UAB 90%
@kentucky 70%
@Missouri 35%
Vanderbilt 50%

Final record Odds
10-2 1%
9-3 5%
8-4 19%
7-5 26%
6-6 27%
5-7 17%
4-8 4%

Bowl 79%
8-4 or better - 25% PLEASE DEAR GOD
Click to expand...
Decent way to come up with preseason rankings but these games arent independent events. College football is so much momentum and injuries and team attitudes will change these percentages so much that it's impossible to predict the outcome. If we lose to both MSU an Florida the odds we beat Mizzou and Vandy go down. If we win games we arent suppose to we might keep winning more.
 
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#158,643
#158,643
Darn, Vandagriff went to OU. Sure as heck can't blame him though. That place pumping out Heismans like crazy.

The upside is Riley should get a lot of NFL heat soon and could always bounce. Preferably before next Fall...
 
#158,644
#158,644
Devo182 said:
Darn, Vandagriff went to OU. Sure as heck can't blame him though. That place pumping out Heismans like crazy.

The upside is Riley should get a lot of NFL heat soon and could always bounce. Preferably before next Fall...
Click to expand...
Surprised he didn't jump this year with that crazy carousel
 
#158,645
#158,645
Devo182 said:
In year 2? CBJ had 6 wins (assuming everyone is talking reg season wins) and he had every opportunity to win the East in years 3 and 4. No need to put so much on merely year 2, especially given the massive hole Pruitt has started from.

He hasn't even had a chance to develop his own stud OL and now has to replace his entire DL all at once. I don't think that should be underestimated.

Hope we surprise all of cfb, but think we should relax if we struggle one more year. This staff is worth having patience for.
Click to expand...
Yeah it seems like there's a lot to like about the direction we're trending, but we just have so many question marks in the trenches it's hard to really expect us to make a very big jump this season.

Could we make a huge jump if we stay healthy, get Solomon eligible, maybe Smith comes back, and all or most of our newcomers are ready and able to make instant impacts? Definitely possible.

Could none of those things go our way and it mean that our program's progress doesn't manifest itself in terms of wins? Also definitely possible.

Seems like smart money would be on some of those question marks going our way, getting a kick in the nads with some others, and seeing only a modest improvement in terms of wins and losses.

I'm not sure expecting 8-9 wins this year is really fair to Pruitt or our staff. IMO our main expectation for this year should be to be competitive in all or most of our games. We lost 5 games by 26 points or more in 2018. Going 6-6 but having all or mostly 1-2 score losses may be the kind of progress we have to live with in 2019.
 
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#158,646
#158,646
VolInDayton said:
Decent way to come up with preseason rankings but these games arent independent events. College football is so much momentum and injuries and team attitudes will change these percentages so much that it's impossible to predict the outcome. If we lose to both MSU an Florida the odds we beat Mizzou and Vandy go down. If we win games we arent suppose to we might keep winning more.
Click to expand...

No doubt. No one can predict it, especially in June. Just rather use odds than black-and-white W/L predictions, since it is comes a bit closer to reality.
 
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#158,648
#158,648
Devo182 said:
A lot of discussion of 6 wins vs 7,8, even 9.

So here is how I came to 6 wins and 7 wins being equally likely, using game by game predictions. Post your own and I'll reply to you with your simulator outcomes.

Opponent Win% Prediction
Ga St 100%
BYU 80%
Chattanooga 100%
@Florida 30%
Georgia 15%
Miss St 40%
@Alabama 5%
South Carolina 45%
UAB 90%
@kentucky 70%
@Missouri 35%
Vanderbilt 50%

Final record Odds
10-2 1%
9-3 5%
8-4 19%
7-5 26%
6-6 27%
5-7 17%
4-8 4%

Bowl 79%
8-4 or better - 25% PLEASE DEAR GOD
Click to expand...

Ga St 100%
BYU 85%
Chattanooga 100%
@Florida 25%
Georgia 10%
Miss St 55%
@Alabama 5%
South Carolina 60%
UAB 100%
UK 65%
@Missouri 50%
Vanderbilt 65%
 
#158,650
#158,650
Jack Burton said:
How does this compare to other SEC teams? I wonder what the goal should be for us. Obviously more but is Alabama typically getting 2 or 3 per year on that list? Maybe they don’t have to play as many freshmen so their impact isn’t as important.
Click to expand...

Granted there are likely cases where need drives the playing of freshmen in the SEC but I think given the distribution on the All-SEC freshmen teams, which you inquired about, it could perhaps just as likely be a reflection of the success some schools have recruiting elite talent (immediate impact type players) out of high school. jmo.

ScreenHunter 190.png
 
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