5* recruiting (debunked)

[1vol8]

OL's improve. This one should average 30+ lbs heavier this year than last.

The OL alone isn't what has gotten JG beaten up. JG bears part of that.

Maurer did some things well instinctively in the O&W game that JG hasn't mastered in 4 years of CFB. BM stepped up in the pocket a few times and "felt pressure" to move in the pocket. That makes protection easier for an OL. He also made some good judgments on when to run.

I really wasn't trying to make this about BM. It's JGs team but his comment really makes me want to come at him with both barrels and that would require comparisons.

 

[sjt18]

I really wasn't trying to make this about BM. It's JGs team but his comment really makes me want to come at him with both barrels and that would require comparisons.

I don't mind. People get mad at me. But I'm going to give honest opinions and let that go how it goes. The OL has to improve. JG has to improve. If that hurts someone's feelings for some reason... maybe they need to spend some quiet time thinking about their reaction.

IMHO, by the end of last season most of the OL failures were physical rather than mental. Early, it looked like a lot of mental mistakes and missed assignments. They still got manhandled at times but maybe a little less so with Smith playing.

At the end of the year, they appeared to know what to do... but just got whipped too often in large part because they were weak and small.

 

[MWAVolfan]

Why would I want to change the subject when I created it? Its people like MWA that take things too far and I simply don't want to be a part of it.

For the record, I never wished that to happen to Maurer. Grow the hell up dude. I was making a sarcastic comment about the fact that he's not going to be the next Peyton Manning that you seem to think him to be.

You are too much. go take a valium.

 

[TDawg]

Why would I want to change the subject when I created it? Its people like MWA that take things too far and I simply don't want to be a part of it.

Uhhh, we went from you talking about the correlation between 5* recruiting to college success or NFL success to you going after someone about BM .. but never responded to my comment trying to get you to explain this correlation of you thinking the amount of 5*s is related to the NFL draft.

 

[MWAVolfan]

Never knew that existed? Ill see if I can look it up. Itll show you how many 3* qbs competed with the best in the nation. If I can screen shot it ill put it up on this quote.


That's a pos thing to say. Any man or woman posts something like that in reguards to a kid is a waste of oxygen. You should be ashamed of yourself

For the record, I never wished that to happen to Maurer. Grow the hell up dude. I was making a sarcastic comment about the fact that he's not going to be the next Peyton Manning that you seem to think him to be.

You are too much. go take a valium.

 

[1vol8]

For the record, I never wished that to happen to Maurer. Grow the hell up dude. I was making a sarcastic comment about the fact that he's not going to be the next Peyton Manning that you seem to think him to be.

You are too much. go take a valium.

Kick your feet up and get comfortable. You can add you name to the list of doubters that he's made his name on. If you didn't watch the O&W game I would suggest you do because it was no coincidence that the (2nd string) o line didn't seem to be the problem that everyone seems to think it is. Go on thinking you know just like everyone else thought they did until he got there.

 

[1vol8]

Uhhh, we went from you talking about the correlation between 5* recruiting to college success or NFL success to you going after someone about BM .. but never responded to my comment trying to get you to explain this correlation of you thinking the amount of 5*s is related to the NFL draft.

The star system is BASED on the NFL draft dude. I really don't care if you believe that or not. If you don't I would suggest studying up on it. Now im not picking on you despite how it must seem. Im serious that you are wrong and need to do some research to learn why it's not worth arguing if you differ in opinion.

 

[bamawriter]

The star system is BASED on the NFL draft dude. I really don't care if you believe that or not. If you don't I would suggest studying up on it. Now im not picking on you despite how it must seem. Im serious that you are wrong and need to do some research to learn why it's not worth arguing if you differ in opinion.

It mimics the NFL draft (at least 247's specific list does). It is not a prediction for the NFL draft.

 

[1vol8]

It mimics the NFL draft (at least 247's specific list does). It is not a prediction for the NFL draft.

I understand that. Hes claiming the star system is an indication of likelihood of college success and that's not the case

 

[bamawriter]

I understand that. Hes claiming the star system is an indication of likelihood of college success and that's not the case

It is a prediction of college success. Specifically, it predicts who will have the biggest impact at the earliest point in his career. In the same way that a 1st round draft pick should be ready to come in and produce during his rookie season, a 5 star prospect should be ready to make an impact his freshman year.

 

[sjt18]

It is a prediction of college success. Specifically, it predicts who will have the biggest impact at the earliest point in his career. In the same way that a 1st round draft pick should be ready to come in and produce during his rookie season, a 5 star prospect should be ready to make an impact his freshman year.

The problem is that if you use the draft as a measuring stick the recruiting sites only get it right with 5* players about half the time and less for 4 star players.

They obviously give out a lot more 3* than 5* but each year about as many 3* will be drafted as 5*.

Point is the sites aren't perfect by any stretch.

What would be more accurate is that certain coaches have a really good knack at finding good players. The recruiting site guys know that and pay close attention to who Saban, Dabo, and a few others are recruiting.

So while you might claim that Bama wins because they get lots of 4/5* players... I would contend that Bama's knack for finding great players influences which ones get higher rankings.

The recruiting sites simply don't have the manpower or expertise to do great evaluations on their own. Major programs however hire consulting firms to find a vet recruits.

 

[1vol8]

I don't mind. People get mad at me. But I'm going to give honest opinions and let that go how it goes. The OL has to improve. JG has to improve. If that hurts someone's feelings for some reason... maybe they need to spend some quiet time thinking about their reaction.

IMHO, by the end of last season most of the OL failures were physical rather than mental. Early, it looked like a lot of mental mistakes and missed assignments. They still got manhandled at times but maybe a little less so with Smith playing.

At the end of the year, they appeared to know what to do... but just got whipped too often in large part because they were weak and small.

I really don't care about hurting someones feelings in that subject either. Ive just been accused in past of making it about Maurer when someone else brought it up in one way or another(just like this). But if someone asked me direct I would have to say yes BM is the best qb on the roster right now and possibly 2020 as well. Does that mean he SHOULD start? No. Hes not as ready as he'll be mid season or a yr from now. But if he did I wouldn't be opposed to it either because he would learn as he goes and only get better.

As for the o line it's no secret that I agree with you. Regardless of what people think they were not that bad at pass protection. Where they fell short was the run game. Which piggy backs on what you said. They were small and weak, therefore they could get no push. So there goes your running game if you're playing on your own side of the los. Also JG tendencies to check down vs stretching the field plays a huge part. Defenses crowd the line with their LBs, DBs play kind of in the middle of press and soft and the safeties cheat up. ALL of which puts more stress on the o line because the are more people, closer.

 

[Behr]

The only way Brian Maurer will attain fame is when our inept offensive line turns him into a quadriplegic and they make a 30 for 30 about it.

 

[bamawriter]

They obviously give out a lot more 3* than 5* but each year about as many 3* will be drafted as 5*.

Right. That's how math works. There's only enough 5 stars to fill out one round of the draft. You could do more than 10 drafts of 3 star and under guys every year.

But 25% of five stars will go in the first round. Less than 3% of 3 star prospects will go in the first.

Point is the sites aren't perfect by any stretch.

No one has even come close to claiming they're perfect. What they are is fairly accurate.

 

[1vol8]

Man that dude pissed me off. What kind of guy makes a comment like that?

 

[Mike Moffett]

how likely a player is to go pro is utterly irrelevant to a college recruiter. what recruiters want to know is how can this player contribute to my program right now. That's absolutely it. Good college players aren't playing college ball for that long. So these recruiters have to go after the guys that will be developed enough to step right in as starters in their freshman and certainly by their sophomore years. Because if they truly are that good, they will bolt for the NFL before they graduate.

again, how many of those pro bowlers that were 2 and 3 star players actually make a difference on the college teams they played for? OR did they develop into good players much later and possibly after they left college?

This is what the stars mean. You guys crack me up:

Rivals. The Rivals process is very similar: A five-star prospect is considered to be one of the nation's top 25-30 players, four star is a top 250-300 or so player, three-stars is a top 750 level player, two stars means the player is a mid-major prospect and one star means the player is not ranked.Dec 15, 2018

 

[1vol8]

This is what the stars mean. You guys crack me up:

Rivals. The Rivals process is very similar: A five-star prospect is considered to be one of the nation's top 25-30 players, four star is a top 250-300 or so player, three-stars is a top 750 level player, two stars means the player is a mid-major prospect and one star means the player is not ranked.Dec 15, 2018

Isee your point but You're actually wrong on the numbers.
5*- 1-32
4*- 33-300
3*- 301-500
2*- 501- 750? (I think)

That's the way I read it a while back but things change just as fast as they assign stars or take them away.

 

[hndog609]

I think the biggest problem with this thread starts with the title which seems to present the idea of ratings being "debunked" in some kind of absolute observation. This makes no sense. The most cursory of honest looks at the degree of correlation simply stands on it's own merit. There is no coach or fan in the country that doesn't want their team stacked with the highest rated talent.

Now if the argument were to be presented that the rating system is some sort of guaranteed arbiter of success or failure then that would make just as little sense. Until somebody comes up with something like The Machine from Person of Interest there are simply too many variables in play.

There is nothing whatsoever about the latter being true that lessens the former being just as true.

 

[butchna]

Central point of the OP was that we needed to “start recruiting 5 stars” and we wouldn’t “start” our comeback until we were annually hauling in top 10 classes and having 5 stars backing up 5 stars...which is hogwash. No program is 3 deep at every position in 5 stars...not enough of them to go around. Alabama has a large number of 5 stars who SOMETIMES have a 5 star back them up for a season but more often have a 4 star back them up and surprisingly have a 3 star emerge as a first round draft pick like Josh Jacobs. During this unprecedented run what they HAVEN’T had is a 5 star QB run the season as a starter and win a NC. They’ve WON with two 3 stars and two 4 stars as the established season long starters. With an otherwise loaded (star ratings wise) roster, Bama has been taken to task 3/4 times by a Clemson program built on a different paradigm. At best top 11-12 class has more NC’s in this playoff era than tOSU who is like Bama an annual top 5 recruiting institution. Nothing changes that history even as capitalizing on their success Clemson joins that year in year out Top 5 club. That’s how we’re going to have to do it. We don’t have Dooley’s and Butch’s doing the evaluating so the mocking “trust the coaches” that our own miserables and paranoid rival fans like Bamawriters bleat out fall on deaf ears. We have to keep recruiting the service 5 stars but not disband the program when we accept the athletes that were downgraded when they played DT in high school when they’re natural edge rushers at the next level. Or explosive WR’s at a school with a veer running QB...or countless scenarios that even out. As is we’ll hope for the best that Toto and Crouch et al will work through the kiss of death that 33 year nerdy virgin eggheads puckered at them.

 

[08Vol]

If one were to develop a recruiting "ranking" that looked at nothing but offers, and gave added weight to the guys who are considered elite recruiters (Saban, Smart, Dabo, etc), do you think those rankings would be fairly predictive of on-field success?

The problem with this is finding info about the offers. Offers are not public but most players make them public. Coaches typically won’t confirm who they have offered so there isn’t a good way to check the offers that players are claiming. All offers aren’t equal. Coaches will set conditions on offers like “we are looking at 5 other guys at your position who are ahead of you so if two of them sign this offer is off the table.

I believe last year UT had offers out to over 100 kids knowing they could only take 20-30. That means some of those offers carry a lot more weight than others

 

[1vol8]

What really happened when? You mentioned the Elite 11, and I pointed out that Maurer wasn't the lowest ranked guy there. Then you switched to the Opening. I'm not sure what it is that you're getting at.

Your entire argument has been based upon conjecture and unverifiable events surrounding Maurer. I've chosen not to press you on those, because I don't want to give the impression that I'm critical of a kid that I don't know personally and about whom I know very little.

The word conjecture has been used several times throughout this debate by Bash. Not once has it been used correctly. Conjecture is an opinion based on no evidence. Given what I KNOW as a fact that makes it an educated opinion. I wouldn't call anything I know "unverifiable" when I'm just simply CHOOSING not to put the facts of what we were lied to about on a message board. There are reasons The Opening is closed to the public as I've stated before and due to the fact that I witnessed the politics surrounding it (because I was there) helped form the educated opinion I have today. 2019 aside I can tell you things about 2018 as well that you wouldn't know. It wouldn't be a conjecture if I did though. It would still be just an educated opinion. We've heard countless times that 2019 was a weak class for qbs correct? Would anyone believe me if I told everyone that there were 4 qbs in 2019 that I personally would take over Trevor Lawrence but 0 I would take over Fields from 2018? Hell no. So I CHOOSE to keep what I know to myself and CHOOSE to say "Just sit back and wait".

 

[1vol8]

The problem with this is finding info about the offers. Offers are not public but most players make them public. Coaches typically won’t confirm who they have offered so there isn’t a good way to check the offers that players are claiming. All offers aren’t equal. Coaches will set conditions on offers like “we are looking at 5 other guys at your position who are ahead of you so if two of them sign this offer is off the table.

I believe last year UT had offers out to over 100 kids knowing they could only take 20-30. That means some of those offers carry a lot more weight than others

I actually seen a graph last yr showing UT as one of the highest numbers of offers a yr and it was around 400 so most are not commitable. And an offer doesn't become public if the kid doesn't choose to make it that way. Which is where the recruiting services get their info on who is offering who. They may or may not confirm before putting it in his offer list but they're are cases where they don't know every school that made an offer. So I agree with your post

 

[Mike Moffett]

Isee your point but You're actually wrong on the numbers.
5*- 1-32
4*- 33-300
3*- 301-500
2*- 501- 750? (I think)

That's the way I read it a while back but things change just as fast as they assign stars or take them away.

It came from a google search, aren’t my numbers. They actually fluctuate with no in-stone number for each level.

 

[1vol8]

It came from a google search, aren’t my numbers. They actually fluctuate with no in-stone number for each level.

Gotcha. I got mine off of 247 a few yrs back.

 

[PrattvilleVol]

There is more lower stars than that of 4 and 5* guys. Alabama, Clemson, Georgia etc have proven blue chips win championships.



Are some higher rated plays overrated? Yes. Are some lower guys overlooked, for whatever reason? Yes

But don't kid yourself, we need highly rated players

Bryce Brown, Khalil McKenzie, Slick Shelley, James Banks....I could make a list a mile long of 4 and 5 star players that were garbage either on the field or off the field.