5* recruiting (debunked)

#276
#276
Elhanan said:
I wonder if any star ranking service (experts, panels, whatever) adjust those ratings throughout the kids college career?

It’d be neat to see how our longest developed players turned out over each coaches tenure. Then we can compare Pruitt in a few years to them.
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No. Once they sign it's a done deal.
 
#277
#277
1vol8 said:
I couldn't answer that. Idk what he felt. Although it seems obvious that the schools evaluations along with the Elite 11 were completely different then that of 247.
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Were they? His offer list seems pretty in line with a top 500 prospect.
 
#278
#278
bamawriter said:
Were they? His offer list seems pretty in line with a top 500 prospect.
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If he hadnt signed early there's no doubt that he would've been a 4* (update happened in feb)due to who else came after him. But isnt that our point? It shouldnt be about a kids offer list. It's supposed to be about his skillset at his respective position.
 
#279
#279
1vol8 said:
If he hadnt signed early there's no doubt that he would've been a 4* (update happened in feb)due to who else came after him. But isnt that our point? It shouldnt be about a kids offer list. It's supposed to be about his skillset at his respective position.
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He got reranked 5 times by the composite after signing. The last one happened in March.
 
#280
#280
bamawriter said:
He got reranked 5 times by the composite after signing. The last one happened in March.
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News to me. I've always been under the impression it's locked in once a kid signs. Still don't make any sense if that's the case though because he either proved that 7 qbs are overrated OR hes extremely underrated. Pick one.
 
#281
#281
1vol8 said:
News to me. I've always been under the impression it's locked in once a kid signs. Still don't make any sense if that's the case though because he either proved that 7 qbs are overrated OR hes extremely underrated. Pick one.
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Rankings can shift based upon movement by other players. It's unlikely that anyone would reassess a player after he signs his LOI. Wouldn't be worth the time. But they absolutely don't stop evaluations just based on a verbal. Either way, there wasn't a ton of movement during his senior year.
 
#282
#282
bamawriter said:
Rankings can shift based upon movement by other players. It's unlikely that anyone would reassess a player after he signs his LOI. Wouldn't be worth the time. But they absolutely don't stop evaluations just based on a verbal. Either way, there wasn't a ton of movement during his senior year.
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If there was 1 qb in the nation in 2019 that should not true about its him.

Im sorry but you can't be a 3* and earn the right to the Elite 11, then beat over half of the top 12 4 and 5* qbs and not move in the rankings unless you're being snubbed for political reasons. Especially after the yr he had as a senior. I would challenge anyone to find another 3* qb with those credentials in ANY yr and follow it up with averaging 4tds a game on a bad team while putting up high 4* numbers.
 
#283
#283
1vol8 said:
If there was 1 qb in the nation in 2019 that should not true about its him.

Im sorry but you can't be a 3* and earn the right to the Elite 11, then beat over half of the top 12 4 and 5* qbs and not move in the rankings unless you're being snubbed for political reasons. Especially after the yr he had as a senior. I would challenge anyone to find another 3* qb with those credentials in ANY yr and follow it up with averaging 4tds a game on a bad team while putting up high 4* numbers.
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Maybe.

If there had been an influx of high profile offers, I'd be right there with you. But, other than Tennessee and tOSU, it doesn't appear to have happened. He didn't even get much love instate. I don't consider myself a talent evaluator. I can only speculate based on actions of those that are.
 
#284
#284
bamawriter said:
Maybe.

If there had been an influx of high profile offers, I'd be right there with you. But, other than Tennessee and tOSU, it doesn't appear to have happened. He didn't even get much love instate. I don't consider myself a talent evaluator. I can only speculate based on actions of those that are.
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I guess you're right there with me then. Like I said. He didn't advertise his later offers after committing to UT last June. He kept them quiet, which is why none show up on his 247 profile, but he had another 10 offers before signing. And there was in state "love". Miami and Florida are among the 10 from what I understand along with UGA and Penn State. But none the less it is what it is. I still hold firm that it shouldn't be about who offers above individual skillsets to support a ranking. That's just simply lazy evaluation of a prospect and a lot of the reason they are only 30% accurate according to the artical I posted about.
I love that you kept it classy through the debate but lets move on from him as an individual before I say too much or someone starts thinking I've turned the conversation. (It's happened before)Hes just a prefect example of everything we're debating if you followed his journey.
 
#285
#285
I have some concerns about some of that, but you're right in that I don't want to make it about a specific kid. A kid who very well may wind up proving a whole lot of people wrong. So, I'll leave it at that.
 
#286
#286
bamawriter said:
I have some concerns about some of that, but you're right in that I don't want to make it about a specific kid. A kid who very well may wind up proving a whole lot of people wrong. So, I'll leave it at that.
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There's not a doubt in my mind he will if given the opportunity. If something needs cleared up I don't have a problem answering. I just don't want it to turn to individual debate rather than a recruiting one
 
#288
#288
UTwick said:
I think I remember Bill Snyder at KSU stating that over his entire career, he only had one 5* recruit, and he never played. He had some solid teams over the years due to good coaching and recruiting his type of players. Still, I wouldn’t be heartbroken to snag some 5*s.
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Yes, and my grandmother smoked for 70 years and lived to 90. Wtf. Snyder never won an NC either. The data are clear: theres a strong correlation between Top 10 recruiting classes and NCs, and an even stronger correlation between having 50% of your class be 4 and 5 stars and NCs.
 
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#289
#289
butchna said:
Somehow when he doesn’t land or take a player their rating drops...helps with the science of it. When the services pander to his evaluations, shocking when they’re not highly ranked. As for Fulmer, nowhere in my point did I advocate him taking SOLELY 3 stars...just not trusting the services for his vetting. When he was at his best in recruiting during the 90’s, it’s not a coincidence that the star system didn’t exist. Soon as he started trusting the eggheads to find HIS PLAYERS, the program mysteriously started slipping.
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Can you provide evidence and examples of recruits who have lost a ratings star solely because Saban didn't sign them?
 
#290
#290
1vol8 said:
Idk that this answers your question but I feel like on field success is a mindset. My biggest fear of any 4/5* is the fact that most of them come from elite HS programs. The mindset of those players is "Im the best because everybody told me so". Then they meet a team that hits them in the mouth and from my experience the mindset changes to "Wtf just happened?" "Ive never had that happen before". The result is they don't know how to react.
If there's one thing that we can take a shot at Bama with its the fact that that happened to them in the NC game. Some of those boys quit imo. No other way to explain such a blowout when everyone expected the blowout to be the other way around.
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Please provide evidence illustrating that the mindset of 5 stars is as you described. And additionally that they all come from elite schools. And define what an elite school is. As others have noted, NCs are typically won by the schools with the most 4 and 5 stars, and 5 stars are much more likely to make it to the NFL, neither of which suggests they are prima donnas who quit when punched in the mouth. They provided empirical data, not uninformed ******** opinions. If you can provide data and facts then we won't think youre full of it.
 
#293
#293
Bash said:
Please provide evidence illustrating that the mindset of 5 stars is as you described. And additionally that they all come from elite schools. And define what an elite school is. As others have noted, NCs are typically won by the schools with the most 4 and 5 stars, and 5 stars are much more likely to make it to the NFL, neither of which suggests they are prima donnas who quit when punched in the mouth. They provided empirical data, not uninformed ******** opinions. If you can provide data and facts then we won't think youre full of it.
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First of all this is a classy conversation. If you don't agree with something someone said and cant respond with class then feel free to exit the thead. I personally have enjoyed this thead more than any other due to that fact.
I can't provide proof of a players mindset. Nor would I if I had proof because that would require video exposing a kid. But we all know what it looks like when it happens. (See UT vs Vandy/Mizzu 2018)
What I can tell you is I coach HS football and also am a private position coach. I see a lot of players come up and as most begin to get ranked.... let's just say "humble" isn't a word you would use to describe most of them anymore. Most of those that became high 4 and 5* players got there with the help of the teams they played for. The entire team is normally loaded and usually undeated until season end and playoffs begin. That's where I see it. Once most of them get into a game they don't dominate like they're used to they lose focus and next that goes is their will to win. Especially if they begin to lose and it only gets worse as the game goes on if their team gets farther and farther behind. You want an example? Clemson vs Alabama 2018 NC game. I never said all of them at any point so stop assuming that's what I meant. What I said is "its my biggest fear of a 5*" and that's from personal experience.

Next .... NOONE ever argued that more 5* recruits go pro if you payed ANY attention to what you were reading. What was being argued was the recruiting services accuracy of said 5*s. I had this same conversation with Bamawritter. I put up the results of an artical (from 4 yrs ago) that showed the ratio of 5* recruits that lived up to the hype in the last DECADE. Only 30%. With a 70% miss rate I find it hard to believe you would hire a lawyer to represent you with those kinds of results so why would you trust 247? 70% just SCREAMS "We don't TRULY evaluate" or "We don't REALLY know what we're looking at" Pick one. If either are true, which is clear at least one of them is, that would indicate that every top 10 class in the history of the recruiting service era is mis ranked one way or the other. A team that finished #8 could actually be #5 or even as low as # 12. Im 70% sure of that.
 
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#296
#296
butchna said:
Not conjecture that Rivals dropped Trey Smith from a 5 star to 4 when he committed to us. They do that if he picks Bama...or Ohio State?
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Was not KMac the #1 recruit in the country until he signed with us and his stock fell as well?
 
#298
#298
Remy said:
Was not KMac the #1 recruit in the country until he signed with us and his stock fell as well?
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Stayed #1 on Scout only...RIP. Also Bama offered JG. Anyone not thinking he gets that 5th star if he goes to Tuscaloosa is ramping up on the naive. The scouting services were originally a trusty, neutral resource, but they rapidly became corrupted with sycophants and cater to the power players. In the short science of the playoff era, there are three teams that have won championships. Two of them are TOP 5 regulars...Bama and Ohio State. The third BUILT their team similarly to how Pruitt is plugging along...and Clemson has TWO championships to show for it. Now when Dabo offers a player, their rating jumps a star or two. Goofy to suggest that we’re supposed to be at status at year two when it took Dabo almost ten. Original gist of this thread was that we “need to start recruiting 5 stars” to build a 3 deep or 5 star depth. Pruitt has never been shy at offering 5 stars, but he doesn’t assume the fetal position when we don’t immediately land all that he offers. Instead as a talent evaluator who’s better than the service eggheads, he invites multitudes more to camp and offers the best fits he and his coaches glean out of them. Even when we achieve Clemson status, I doubt he alters that approach.
 
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#299
#299
Bash said:
Conjecture. At least you qualify it.
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If we are wrong in our opinions you gotta ask yourself why any kid would ever lose a star to begin with. Are you telling me that they "evaluated" a kid and assigned a 4/5* rating on his talent, then months later "evaluate" him again only to find that he doesn't have the talent he once did? Give me a break. The evidence is all over. No need for specifics.
 
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#300
#300
1vol8 said:
The thread was posted a few days ago suggesting we don't have a chance without 5* recruits. So I took to google to find out how right he could be and decided, instead of debating a percentage of what I learned based on a comment here and there, why not put it all on here? So here we go.

Let's see how we would feel about this hypothetical roster at UT back in the day.

Qb1 Arron Rodgers
Qb2 Matt Ryan
Rb1 Levion Bell
Wr. Mike Evans
OL Travis Frederick
OL. Trent Williams
TE. Travis Kelsey

C. Richard Sherman
DL Von Miller
DL Arron Donald
DL Cliff Avril
All 3* recruits and that's just the probowl.

According to 247 we shouldnt be talking about 2* talent such as Aquib Talib or Kalil Mack because they are less likely to go pro.

Even less talk is deserved for the bottom feeders (unranked) such as Tony Romo and Tom Brady.

Ive never been a believer in the recruiting services for reasons unimportant (although one reason should already be clear). But if you choose to believe a panel full of guys that went to school to learn how to do this from a book, be my guest. I'll trust my own eyes and experience along with the coaching staff that trust the same things over what some pencil pusher says they are.
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Guys and Gals,
Of course you should trust your coaches. Each coach attempts to get the players that will maximize wins at their school.

School tradition, recent performance, facilities, record of getting players drafted, coach personality’s, proximity to home, team colors, fan bases, and probably many less vital aspects all play a role in a kids decision to go to a certain school.

Coaches get the best players that they can, but just like the last few coaching searches at UT, you don’t always get what you want. They get the best players they can, but that doesn’t mean they want those players over higher ranked players. It’s just who they can get. Jeremy Pruitt, and any other coach in America, would choose a 5 star prospect over a 3 star 99% of the time. They are almost always some combination of bigger, faster, smarter, meaner, have better vision, quicker twitch, etc.

To say that your coach is so much better than the field at evaluating prospects, and that is why he keeps “choosing” lower ranked prospects, is a weak, grasping for air, type of comment. Pruitt would trade his group of commits for that of Clemson, Alabama or Georgia, (and a number of other schools) in a millisecond.

Accept that UT is where it is currently, support them, and hope that you found that diamond in the rough when Pruitt was hired. Be good fans and you will have done what you can to get UT back to prominence.
 
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