Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

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#148,852
#148,852
Neyland Law Vol said:
What record does TN need in 2019 for you guys to feel like we've turned the corner and are on the right track? I'm thinking 8-4 with a bowl win to 9-4 would really start recruiting momentum.
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Doesn't matter imo. CBJ improved each year and it was just a red herring. Need to see marked improvement in s&c, schemes, discipline, recruiting...for the next 3 years. Then I'll believe a LONG-TERM corner has truly been turned. Otherwise it's just a blip.
 
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#148,853
#148,853
901LookAlive said:
I say the defense will be humming this season. When you have a solid defense you tend to find yourself in some ball games. That's when Pruitt will either come into his own or try again next year.
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Given our DL turnover, I would be absolutely shocked if our defense is all that good. With our more mature secondary, I'll be happy with holding serve. It is our offense that I expect a nice step forward from.
 
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#148,856
#148,856
Devo182 said:
Given our DL turnover, I would be absolutely shocked if our defense is all that good. With our more mature secondary, I'll be happy with holding serve. It is our offense that I expect a nice step forward from.
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Taylor was a totally different animal after the Georgia game. We have young kids to play with on those frequent blitzes Pruitt likes to call. No more Baylen Buchanan trying to sack the QB. Bituli was a completely different linebacker year 2 in Shoop's system. He should play much faster this season. We good back deep, we have bodies up front news flash KP, Shy and Johnson were just bodies. Gooden flashed much more frequently than any of those guys. Testament to Rocker's coaching ability if anything for turning those guys respectable. Last year everyone panicked about the d-line, this year we panic over replacing the pedestrian players..
 
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#148,857
#148,857
Devo182 said:
Doesn't matter imo. CBJ improved each year and it was just a red herring. Need to see marked improvement in s&c, schemes, discipline, recruiting...for the next 3 years. Then I'll believe a LONG-TERM corner has truly been turned. Otherwise it's just a blip.
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Yeah it’s not a hockey stick. After all these years I think many fans still think the right coach will win at a steady upward clip year after year until we get to the college football playoff. I think the ride will look a little bumpier than that and some of the bumps will look worse than others.
 
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#148,858
#148,858
Big Gucci Sosa said:
poster on VQ
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Haha. Wow! This will become the end all be all explanation for the current lull in recruiting momentum.

For those new to VN, sit back and watch this quote take off like wildfire and become gospel truth for much of the summer, if not longer. Glad I was on here to see it posted!
 
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#148,860
#148,860
Devo182 said:
Given our DL turnover, I would be absolutely shocked if our defense is all that good. With our more mature secondary, I'll be happy with holding serve. It is our offense that I expect a nice step forward from.
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Let's hope Bill Connelly's statistical analysis on the correlations of the different aspects of our defense holds up for us this year.

Over the last few years, I have attempted to move beyond the too-simple “returning starters” figure to measure experience.

We use the best tools we have, even if they’re not that great. We try to derive value from offensive line starts because it’s the only individual measure of offensive linemen that we have. You can’t get much from “he’s been one of Team A’s five preferred linemen 16 times since he started school here.”​
It’s the same with returning starters. We use it because it exists. It is fine as a really quick snapshot, but we know that one team’s six returning offensive starters aren’t another’s. What about go-to guys? Returning backups? And quarterbacks are worth more than other starters, right?​

In 2016, I began using a returning production figure based on what seems to best correlate with year-to-year performance. With what is now a few years’ worth of data, let’s take a look at some updated correlations.

How returning production in four offensive stats correlates with changes in Offensive S&P+ ratings:

Returning experience on the offensive line doesn’t have nearly the statistical impact that we expect. But with more data in the bank — and a new set of tweaks to S&P+ that I’ve been unveiling at Football Study Hall — we can see there’s a little correlation.


The higher the number, the more likely returning production in these areas is to coincide with strong offense:

  • Receiving yards correlation: 0.324
  • Passing yards correlation: 0.234
  • Rushing yards correlation: 0.168
  • Offensive line starts correlation: 0.153

With more data, the offensive line correlations have begun to grow stronger, which makes sense, but the conclusion remains: continuity in the passing game matters a hell of a lot, and continuity in the run game doesn’t have as strong an impact.

Correlation between defensive stats and changes in Defensive S&P+:

On defense, where returning production appears to matter more in general, the correlations are both stronger and more diverse. Since teams use different numbers of defensive linemen, linebackers, and defensive backs, I look at both unit-specific categories and those for defense as a whole.

  • Defensive back tackles correlation: 0.404
  • Defensive back passes defensed correlation: 0.377
  • Overall tackles correlation: 0.325
  • Overall passes defensed correlation: 0.324
  • Defensive back tackles for loss correlation: 0.299
  • Overall tackles for loss correlation: 0.269
  • Linebacker tackles for loss correlation: 0.250
  • Linebacker tackles correlation: 0.250
  • Linebacker passes defensed correlation: 0.228

That’s right, the correlations for defensive back tackles and passes defensed is stronger than the correlations for overall tackles.

The strongest correlations on the defensive line, by the way: 0.154 for tackles, 0.119 for tackles for loss. Continuity in the trenches does not appear to be worth what we tend to think it’s worth. But continuity in the passing game, on both sides of the ball, means a ton.

One more takeaway: tackles for loss are important, but the ability to get hands on passes might be harder to replicate than any other.
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2019 CFB returning production, ranked a better way

Edit: Since the emphasis in Bill's approach on defense is with our defensive backs here is a snap shot of what we have:

ScreenHunter 98.png
 
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#148,862
#148,862
InVOLuntary said:
@volatil how's pops?
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Hey just saw this. He’s about the same. Several recent falls. Broke his ankle. What’s worse than Alzheimer’s? Someone with Alzheimer’s and walking with use of a walker. Or should I say using a walker as a weapon???😳

He asks me every time I talk to him if “that new guy is going to win or not”. Not sure if he’s talking about Pruitt or Butch or Doug Dickey
 
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#148,864
#148,864
901LookAlive said:
Taylor was a totally different animal after the Georgia game. We have young kids to play with on those frequent blitzes Pruitt likes to call. No more Baylen Buchanan trying to sack the QB. Bituli was a completely different linebacker year 2 in Shoop's system. He should play much faster this season. We good back deep, we have bodies up front news flash KP, Shy and Johnson were just bodies. Gooden flashed much more frequently than any of those guys. Testament to Rocker's coaching ability if anything for turning those guys respectable. Last year everyone panicked about the d-line, this year we panic over replacing the pedestrian players..
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Replacing our best run D in a decade, but aight...believe some JUCO guys are gonna replace a line of 4th year seniors. I pray they do, but this sounds like a lot of the blind optimism we've leaned on the last 10-15 years as we've continued to tred water.
 
#148,867
#148,867
ChattaTNVol said:
Let's hope Bill Connelly's statistical analysis on the correlations of the different aspects of our defense holds up for us this year.



2019 CFB returning production, ranked a better way

Edit: Since the emphasis in Bill's approach on defense is with our defensive backs here is a snap shot of what we have:

View attachment 204605
Click to expand...

I hope FSH's correlation sticks to us. But I do fear we simply aren't replacing our DL adequatedly. Solomon being eligible would obviously help a lot. But we have to recruit muuch better to replenish our DL.
 
#148,868
#148,868
Devo182 said:
The best day of UT football in...15 years? Great comeback. I was on 247 that day and just kept telling everyone to stick with the team and cheer hard AF if they were at the game. We were gaining yards and moving the ball, just making small mistakes and turnovers in the first half. I could tell we were way more in the game than the score indicated, just like uga 2015/16. The 2nd half was cathartic as hell, especially after 2015. I was rolling around on the floor like a maniac all 2nd half.

How did you all experience this game?

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On the radio the first half driving to PCB, caught the bulk of the 2nd half in the condo with the rest of the family on the balcony looking at the beach. Lol

Made that week in Florida easier 😎
 
#148,869
#148,869
901LookAlive said:
Pruitt's scheme. Those same guys were part of the worst run D ever before Pruitt's arrival.
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And worst pass D in a decade. An imbalanced scheme isn't a fix. We lost what we lost. It's gonna be a rough transition. Don't think it's unreasonable to ask for a year to transition.
 
#148,870
#148,870
Devo182 said:
Replacing our best run D in a decade, but aight...believe some JUCO guys are gonna replace a line of 4th year seniors. I pray they do, but this sounds like a lot of the blind optimism we've leaned on the last 10-15 years as we've continued to tred water.
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I am optimistic because a bulk of the returning DL is entering year 2 under this staff.

Butler, Taylor, Gooden, Emerson, Allen, Johnson, Harris, Garland, Mincey & Bumphus

People are forgetting most of them but I expect Rocker deepens his rotation and some of these guys emerge.

My dark horse to push Taylor for sack leader is Bumphus.
 
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#148,871
#148,871
IMO, our defense will be very good next. My main concern will be can the offense help keep them fresh by consistently avoid 3 and outs. Hopefully Chaney can hide our line weakness with quick passing game
 
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#148,872
#148,872
volatil said:
Hey just saw this. He’s about the same. Several recent falls. Broke his ankle. What’s worse than Alzheimer’s? Someone with Alzheimer’s and walking with use of a walker. Or should I say using a walker as a weapon???😳

He asks me every time I talk to him if “that new guy is going to win or not”. Not sure if he’s talking about Pruitt or Butch or Doug Dickey
Click to expand...
Glad he is still aware of the Vols. Sounds like he still recognizes you. That's at least a positive.

It's a terrible thing to have to literally watch your parent regress back into childhood and infancy.
 
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#148,873
#148,873
InVOLuntary said:
Glad he is still aware of the Vols. Sounds like he still recognizes you. That's at least a positive.

It's a terrible thing to have to literally watch your parent regress back into childhood and infancy.
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How’s your mom? I know what you are going through. It’s tough.

You know how it is. They latch on to one thing and focus completely on that subject. For him it’s UT. Say something bad about Fulmer, I dare you. He can’t remember if he’s eaten and will ask 10 times but by God he can remember 152-52. Sure he gets confused about the circumstances and thinks Trump fired him but still.
 
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#148,875
#148,875
volatil said:
How’s your mom? I know what you are going through. It’s tough.

You know how it is. They latch on to one thing and focus completely on that subject. For him it’s UT. Say something bad about Fulmer, I dare you. He can’t remember if he’s eaten and will ask 10 times but by God he can remember 152-52. Sure he gets confused about the circumstances and thinks Trump fired him but still.
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Mom can't remember she ate immediately after we've eaten. She can't remember anything 2 minutes removed from it. Her short term is completely gone. She can't sit still. If she's out she wants to go home. The minute she walks in the door of her house, she wants to know where they're going. She absolutely wears my dad out. My dad gets relief by taking her to daycare three days a week.

She's starting to forget the people close to her. I have to remind her that I'm her son. Sometimes she thinks I'm her husband. It's a sad deal.
 
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