Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

[AngryButchJones]

Purely a gut feeling.... we boom today.

In the interest of full disclosure my gut is about as accurate as the weatherman, but I feels it.

Who you feeling, Hole?

 

[bignewt]

Who you feeling, Hole?

I dont see any booms during the draft. Next weekend makes more sense.

 

[chargervol]

@butchna
You made the Chancellor fresh hell thread in the FF just to watch it burn, didn't you?

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

Who you feeling, Hole?

That sounds like a dirty question.

But idk.... never would've expected the last two commitments to pop. I would hope one of the in state guys would pop but they all seem like they want to wait until 9am central standard time National Signing Day before making a decision. Rakim is loving on LSU. EJ Williams tweeted something about Clemson yesterday and his plans to return. Hasn't been anything on Jacolbe Cowan or Trenton Simpson in so long when it seemed like not long ago they were close to picking the good guys. Ariks going to UGA. Darnell going to Alabama. Justin Rogers is playing with my emotions. All our most sought after defensive recruits are picking Georgia Tech over us. Pruitt can't close.

Hell, damn, I just chased off my gut feeling. No booms today. No booms for a long long time.

 

[Devo182]

I was at a work event last night talking football. It became clear to me (once again) how little legitimate respect the casual fan has for Tennessee football. There were lots of jokes about the team. Not the kind of mean jokes of a rival. But the sort of gentle laughs people used to make about the Cubs and other notable sports franchises known for their losing. I declared to the crowd I thought the Tennessee-Georgia game could be a good one with the way the schedule sets up, and people just laughed and said that guy is such an optimist! We have next to no respect, guys. Gotta grind and go earn it. Can’t fire coaches year after year to get there either. No quick fixes.

That's when you ask them when the last time their basketball was #1 in the country

 

[drvenner]

I spent some time looking at the change in FPI from the end of last season to ESPN’s preseason this year. The FPI is calculated based on a neutral field matchup. Earlier this year Phil Steele did a 5-part series where he analyzed team performance over the past decade in order to project the home field advantage for each FBS team in 2019. In analyzing our schedule this year I used 50% of those values along with the FPI to project wins for 2019.

I also looked at how much ESPN’s math suggested a team might improve or regress from the end of last season to this season. ESPN thinks we will be the most improved team on our schedule this year and it’s not even close. Our 2018 team would have had a tremendous struggle against our schedule this year but, anchoring bias aside, indications are that we are likely to see significant improvement against everyone on our schedule this year, partly because of our own improvement, and partly because many of our opponents are expected to regress.

I’m not one to concede a loss before we play the game so this analysis suggests we should have at least 5 sure-fire wins and perhaps 7 toss-ups. Fans thinking we win 6 think we win 1 of those tossups. I expect most will settle somewhere between 6 and 10. 8 seems realistic but the more cautious will probably shave a game to 7 just to be safe. I’m reaching for the prize of 10 and all the good things that will flow from that achievement. Anything short of that will not be a surprise. It would just be par for the course. I’ve never began a season without being wildly hopeful and I’m getting too old to change that now. jmo.

From ESPN:


View attachment 203528

I'm up to 9 now. Almost definitely will be at 10 after we beat Florida.

 

[drvenner]

You all need to quit talking about Endgame in here, dammit.

 

[Devo182]

I spent some time looking at the change in FPI from the end of last season to ESPN’s preseason this year. The FPI is calculated based on a neutral field matchup. Earlier this year Phil Steele did a 5-part series where he analyzed team performance over the past decade in order to project the home field advantage for each FBS team in 2019. In analyzing our schedule this year I used 50% of those values along with the FPI to project wins for 2019.

I also looked at how much ESPN’s math suggested a team might improve or regress from the end of last season to this season. ESPN thinks we will be the most improved team on our schedule this year and it’s not even close. Our 2018 team would have had a tremendous struggle against our schedule this year but, anchoring bias aside, indications are that we are likely to see significant improvement against everyone on our schedule this year, partly because of our own improvement, and partly because many of our opponents are expected to regress.

I’m not one to concede a loss before we play the game so this analysis suggests we should have at least 5 sure-fire wins and perhaps 7 toss-ups. Fans thinking we win 6 think we win 1 of those tossups. I expect most will settle somewhere between 6 and 10. 8 seems realistic but the more cautious will probably shave a game to 7 just to be safe. I’m reaching for the prize of 10 and all the good things that will flow from that achievement. Anything short of that will not be a surprise. It would just be par for the course. I’ve never began a season without being wildly hopeful and I’m getting too old to change that now. jmo.

From ESPN:


View attachment 203528

ESPN apparently tacks on a pt for any team coming off a bye week. 1 point for us vs Mizzou (thank god), a wash vs UGA, but uk, uab, and miss st all have byes before playing us ;(

Curious why BYU and VU are set to 'win' but Bama game is coded to 'toss up'. Or was that a manual adjustment?

 

[butchna]

@butchna
You made the Chancellor fresh hell thread in the FF just to watch it burn, didn't you?

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

 

[ChattaTNVol]

ESPN apparently tacks on a pt for any team coming off a bye week. 1 point for us vs Mizzou (thank god), a wash vs UGA, but uk, uab, and miss st all have byes before playing us ;(

Curious why BYU and VU are set to 'win' but Bama game is coded to 'toss up'. Or was that a manual adjustment?

The wins and tossups are my projections.

I figure when they come out with their projected number of wins for us it'll probably be 7 or 8.

Speaking of Missouri, I don't know if the deal they made with Bryant is going to work out. I posted earlier that their SDS writer said they only let him face the 3rd string defense during their spring game but I found another article on Lock's backup from last year and it's looks like they put all their eggs in the Bryant basket from the outset. I looked at Bryant's numbers from his full year as Clemson's starting QB from a passing standpoint and given that they were in the playoffs I was surprised that with all that talent around him his numbers weren't better. Obviously he's a mobile guy so that bye week hopefully we'll figure out how to deal with that.

As Micah Wilson made the drive from his hometown of Tulsa, Oklahoma in January for the start of Missouri’s spring semester, he wasn’t expecting to line up anywhere on the field but under center when spring football practices started.

Wilson had just spent his break after the Tigers’ loss in the Liberty Bowl training for the position and expected to compete with former Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant for the starting job.

Then reality hit, when offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Derek Dooley told Wilson the cold-hard truth in a team meeting a few days later: Bryant would be getting all the first-team reps this spring.

 

[nicksjuzunk]

You all need to quit talking about Endgame in here, dammit.

Don’t know who that crap

 

[JohnnyD1024]

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Florida with yet another draft pick. In case there was any doubt, the intern left us as the least talented team in the conference. And Pruitt took that team and beat two top 25 SEC teams, one on the road

 

[Ron Swanson]

Florida with yet another draft pick. In case there was any doubt, the intern left us as the least talented team in the conference. And Pruitt took that team and beat two top 25 SEC teams, one on the road

Rebuilding. 2 more classes.

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Rebuilding. 2 more classes.

Feelsbadman

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Homer take of the day: id take Phillips over this Crosby kid just taken by the Raiders

 

[Catbone]

Rebuilding. 2 more top 5-10 classes.

Fyp

 

[ChattaTNVol]

I was curious what it was like this year to have a lot of success in the draft so I checked in on the celebration at the Mississippi State message board.

From EliteDawgs.com

8-5
3 first rounders
Smh
Sorry, I just can't help but to think about it

Well none of them played offense so....
Next time we have an offensive skill player or QB drafted in the 1st 2 days of the draft will be the first time in a very very long time. Our offensive skill talent is among the bottom of the SEC

None of these guys played on offense and we did finish with one of the top defenses in the nation. I?m just as disappointed as you are about 8-5 but this draft just indicates our defense was coached well and performed up to the standard of their talent.

And that our "offensive guru" is not one.

Moorhead is a loser. You should bumble your way into a better record than this with a defense like that

That's one way of saying it, haha

i agree with everybody, these guys are defensive players and although people say defense wins championships you still have to score points to win. If we had 3 offensive players drafted in the first round then I think we all would be pissed beyond all reason.

I bet you're the same guy that says talent wins Championship's too. Stop being a moron and blaming Moorhead for only winning 8 games. Maybe Mullen should have tried harder to recruit some offensive playmakers.

Yeah because Simmons, Sweat, and Abrams took snaps at QB.
Sometimes I think this fan base is dumb on purpose. Like it's something we have to do. How are we still arguing that defense wins ball games when you have below average talent on offense? Fitz can't throw, WRs were one of the worst groups in the conference. Like it still baffles me that people think our defense is responsible for scoring points in games.

5th year Senior QB, great RB's, veteran OL, stable of TE's, #1 Juco WR, "offensive genius", #1 D in nation, 3 1st round picks....
8-5
Make all the excuses you want, but we didn't have to have a bunch of 1st rounders on O to beat UK, Fla, Iowa. You know it, I know it.

Dan won 8 games with basically the same roster. Lost to OM at home.

Wow, lots of JoMo defenders and excuse makers in here. Most of you guys saying we had ****** offensive players were the same ones predicting 10-11 wins bc we had more talent on both sides of the ball than we have ever had.
Ok

That RB isn't getting drafted. And if Guidry was eligible he wouldn't get drafted either. How many of those veteran OL get drafted? 1?
Y'all turned us into something we weren't. Our offense was terrible because we lacked talent. And you can't discount that growth from 8-5 the year before was curtailed by the fact we had to learn an entirely different offense.
Jenkins and Hill are the only ones that might get drafted from last years offense. Think about that. 2 guys on an offense that an NFL team would want. This is baffling to me. I guess it could be more if you count Whop and his like 6 receptions. Maybe Calhoun goes 7th round? Point is still the same. We have 2 guys that started last year that the NFL would draft.
5th year seniors can suck at throwing. Fitz sucked at throwing. That's why he was asked to try out at TE.

Lol, ok. I am 1000% not surprised to see you defending it. If you think Joe got the best of his offense last year, you're reaching Hard.

Maybe he didn't, but serious dude....he was installing a totally different offense, with totally different terminology and plays. This isn't easy stuff.
Also, Fitz was a sub 50% player even under Dan (who is supposedly the QB whisperer), so why people thought Joe would take him to the next step is beyond me.

Worst WR talent in the SEC. No TE talent. A QB that couldn?t throw it. No tackles.

Cadaver your wasting your time with these dumbasses. they can defend that fatass all night long but the truth is Moorhead 17'd up this season with his ****** offense and that's a fact.

No, you two and anybody else blaming Moorhead for Fitz inability to complete a pass or receivers to catch a pass is insane.

Show me where I said best. Of course it wasn't the best. But if you can't admit Fitz couldn't run that offense and that we are bottom 5 of the SEC in skill position talent I can't help you. Hard to score points when the people that have to score points are bad at scoring points. We lack talent plain and simple on offense.
Bama, Auburn, LSU, and TAMU guaranteed had better skill position and QB last year. OM did too because we would have traded every WR we had for Brown, Metcalf, and Lodge.

Right on cue, Georgia DB is drafted and his highlight includes Fitz throwing a terrible pass that's picked and housed, yet you're bitching that our new head coach couldn't make him win 12 games. GTFOH with that dumb ass ****.

I'm not defending Joe, I'm just sick of hearing MSU was supposed to win 10-11 games because the defense was amazing. Does Joe get any credit for the Auburn or A&M game or was that just the players making plays?

Well then click out of this thread, bc we should have won 10-11 games

Watch the Kentucky game from last season falling apart on the road. That is what we are going to get with Moor. You'll get the same thing next season. Teams will sell out to stop our running game and force them to pass. Joe can't adapt

Scheme =/ talent... I 100% agree the new scheme and playcalling were worse than they were under Mullen. That's the point: offensive coaching was the primary problem, not lack of talent. Yeah we still dont have much talent but as far as why we got worse after gaining experience, well its gotta fall on Moorhead

While I agree with most of this I also understand where the anger is coming from. Joe absolutely could have adapted his system to fit his personnel better. He had to go through a learning curve and I dont think hes ever been in a situation where none of his skill players really fit his system compounded by going up against the most athletic defenses in the country week in and week out. I think Joe will adapt moving forward though.

Coaches job is to put the best product on the field. If a 4-3 D works better for our roster than a 3-4, I'd hope the DC would run a 4-3 regardless of what had like to run after getting his recruits in. And if handing the ball off and pounding it was the best thing for our O, I'd hope the staff would have done that even if they prefer for Fitz to hit downfield bombs and our OTs to handle Jonathan Allen 1 on 1. We didnt have that roster, they should have adjusted.
If you D has a safety that can't cover, you dont let him get schemed into a 1 on 1 with the other teams best receiver. Part of the DCs job is to hide our flaws and play to our strengths. And if your QB panics under pressure and cant get past his 2nd pass progression, you stop asking him to read 4 man routes and give him an extra blocker. This is one of the dozen examples of Moorhead not adjusting his ideal O to the one he had the pieces for. That's bad coaching.

Some of you are just flat out stupid.

 

[SSVol]

You all need to quit talking about Endgame in here, dammit.

Jelly? It's gud. Go see.

 

[Ron Swanson]

Feelsbadman

It’s reality though. Might as well sit back and relax. 7-8 wins this fall. 8-9 next fall and 10+ in 2021.

 

[bignewt]

It’s reality though. Might as well sit back and relax. 7-8 wins this fall. 8-9 next fall and 10+ in 2021.

Relax? We only have five commits for next year!!!!!!!!!

 

[bignewt]

Kinda surprised Love and Snell went that late.

 

[scvolfan7]

Kinda surprised Love and Snell went that late.

Love was bad this year then he got hurt. Terrible pick with all the other RBs on the board

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Relax? We only have five commits for next year!!!!!!!!!

And just lost Jarrett!!!