That tweet posted doesn’t really answer the implied question. MSU had the #2 rushing defense in the nation, the #7 passing defense, the #1 total defense, and the #2 scoring defense. That’s why they have 3 first round draft picks – all from that side of the ball. They never gave up more than 28 points in any one of their 5 losses.
And they had a top 20 rushing offense, in large measure because they had a QB who rushed for well over a thousand yards. Their passing offense ranked #112 in the nation. So if you were a relatively good team on defense, Kentucky, Florida, LSU, Alabama, Iowa, you just shut down their running game and they can’t move the ball nor can they score any points.
I think it could be argued that MSU was even worse on offense last year than we were against good/decent teams and that’s because they were so demonstrably one-dimensional they couldn’t even get occasionally lucky in the passing game.
Obviously the defense is going to regress this year by some measure yet to be discovered but their offense was expected to improve overall with this being the second year of Moorhead’s system; however, according to the writer at SDS covering the spring game, their new quarterback greatly underwhelmed and their receivers suck. Their offensive line wasn’t too impressive either.
In the three common opponents we had with MSU last year (KY, UF, & UA), they scored a combined 13 points and gave up 65. We scored 66 total in those 3 games and gave up 112.
In addition to losing 3 first round draft picks from their defensive line and their all-star running back who was masquerading as a quarterback I think they also lost 2 interior offensive linemen, including their starting center, and 3 guys out of their secondary, including both starting safeties.
While a lot of questions remain for both of our teams coming into this year at the moment I don’t see any reason not to think this is a winnable game for us this year, especially since it’s at Neyland. jmo.