Recruiting Forum Football Talk [RIP 9.3.2019]

[chargervol]

One thing that is going to be interesting is playing Oklahoma next year with them breaking in a new QB against what should be a good DB group for us. Wish it was a home game.

That would be an awesome home game.

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

History shows that if you have a great coach, there is usually a big jump in year 2. For us, that would be a jump to 8-9 wins this year for Pruitt.

Given the way our team faded in the last couple weeks of the season last year, how poor our OL depth is/has been, and the strength of our schedule, I could see 7 wins being a pretty big jump for us this year depending on how the 5 losses go.

If we’re 7-5 with no blowout losses, that would be a huge improvement. We got ran off the field in too many games the past two seasons. Just being able to finish better than .500 and give make all of our opponents really earn their wins would be a big step in the right direction IMO.

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Given the way our team faded in the last couple weeks of the season last year, how poor our OL depth is/has been, and the strength of our schedule, I could see 7 wins being a pretty big jump for us this year depending on how the 5 losses go.

If we’re 7-5 with no blowout losses, that would be a huge improvement. We got ran off the field in too many games the past two seasons. Just being able to finish better than .500 and give make all of our opponents really earn their wins would be a big step in the right direction IMO.

Yeah I'd take that for sure. As long as one of the losses isn't vandy

 

[Rishvol]

It will be that much sweeter when we beat them in Norman.

Especially knowing they'll candy stripe their stadium again

 

[Catbone]

Given the way our team faded in the last couple weeks of the season last year, how poor our OL depth is/has been, and the strength of our schedule, I could see 7 wins being a pretty big jump for us this year depending on how the 5 losses go.

If we’re 7-5 with no blowout losses, that would be a huge improvement. We got ran off the field in too many games the past two seasons. Just being able to finish better than .500 and give make all of our opponents really earn their wins would be a big step in the right direction IMO.

100% agree. 7-5 is a successful year. Thats GA State, UAB, BYU, Chattanooga, Vandy, UK, and one of Miss St/Missouri/Scar.

 

[ChismsHeadband]

History shows that if you have a great coach, there is usually a big jump in year 2. For us, that would be a jump to 8-9 wins this year for Pruitt.

But what about for a 1st year HC's first stop? Or a HC's first P5 stop?

Dabo Swinney
(Took over mid-year for Clemson) 2008 pre-Swinney: 3-3; after Dabo named HC: 4-3.. Year 1: 9-5; Y2: 6-7; Y3: 10-4

Verdict: Clemson has really only had one down year with him, and that was his Y2. Won 10+ ever since.
"Second Year Jump"-- not applicable

Urban Meyer
(G5) Bowling Green: previous year: 2-9; Meyer's Year 1: 8-3; Y2: 9-3
(G5 at the time) Utah: previous year: 5-6; Meyer's Y1: 10-2; Y2: 12-0
(P5) Florida: previous year: 7-5; Meyer's Y1: 9-3; Y2: 13-1

Verdict: Immediate success everywhere
"Second Year Jump"-- sorta applicable at UF, but going from 9-3 after a bowl win to 11-1 in the regular season isn't a big jump

Nick Saban
(G5) Toledo (he was only there one year): previous year: 6-5; Saban's Y1: 9-2
(P5) Michigan State: previous year: 0-11; Saban's Y1: 6-5-1; Y2: 6-6; Y3: 7-5; Y4: 6-6; Y5: 9-2
(P5) LSU: previous year: 3-8; Saban's Y1: 8-4; y2: 10-3; Y3: 8-5; Y4: 13-1

Verdict: Pretty immediate success everywhere
"Second Year Jump"-- not really applicable (only 2 wins better)

Jimbo Fisher
(Only job prior to A&M..) FSU previous year: 7-6; Year 1: 10-4; Y2: 9-4; Y3: 12-2

Verdict: Limited data, but had a phenomenal record from the get-go
"Second Year Jump"-- not applicable

Jim Harbaugh
(FCS) San Diego (Toreros, not State Aztecs): Prev year: 8-2; Y1: 7-4; Y2: 11-1; Y3: 11-1
(P5) Stanford: Prev Year: 1-11; Y1: 4-8; Y2: 5-7; Y3: 8-5; Y4: 12-1
NFL
(P5) Michigan: Prev year: 5-7; Y1: 10-3; Y2: 10-3
"Second Year Jump"-- at the FCS stop. Y3 jump at Stanford

Verdict: FCS was already a success. Stanford was a true build and it's sustained, which is truly impressive. Michigan was made to win at, and outside of losing every year to Ohio State, he's done the thing.

Les Miles
(P5) Oklahoma State: Prev year 3-8; Y1: 4-7; Y2: 8-5; Y3: 9-4
(P5) LSU: Prev year: 9-3; Y1: 11-2; Y2: 11-2; Y3 12-2

Verdict: Built OSU gradually, including a 4-win jump from Y1 to Y2. Maintained Saban's success at LSU.
"Second Year Jump"-- the first example here of a true second year jump.

Had to look it up. Who else belongs on the list?

Edit:

Mark Dantonio
(G5) Cincinnati: Prev year: 5-7; Y1: 7-5; Y2: 4-7; Y3: 7-5
(P5) Michigan State: Prev year: 4-8; Y1: 7-6; Y2: 9-4; Y3: 6-7; Y4: 11-2; Y5: 11-3

Verdict: Only moderate success at Cincinnati.. Michigan State saw Y3-4 being the biggest jump. A bit up-and-down..
"Second Year Jump"-- nope

Mike Leach
(P5) Texas Tech: Prev year: 6-5; Y1: 7-6; Y2 7-5; Y3: 9-5; Y4: 8-5 .... Year 9 is when he hit 11 wins with that Crabtree catch against Texas
(P5 kinda) Washington State: Prev year: 4-8; Y1: 3-9; Y2: 6-7; Y3: 3-9; Y4: 9-4; Y5: 8-5

Verdict: TTU was solidly 7-9 wins per year. WSU had peaks and valleys before evening out to 8-9 wins per year.
"Second Year Jump"-- not really

 

[HankHill]

Returning production rankings for opponents:

UF - 26
Ga St - 28
USC - 45
Bama -63
BYU - 65
UGA - 69
Mizzou - 81
Vandy - 91
Miss St - 92
UK - 114
UAB - 130

All-in-all, teams that we would hope we can begin beating regularly, but have whipped us recently, are pretty low (Mizzou, Vandy), along with a mystery opponent in MIss St. It just sucks that UF returns plenty.

Vandy is going to miss shurmer bad i would take a chance on him late in the draft. He would be a quality back up.

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

100% agree. 7-5 is a successful year. Thats GA State, UAB, BYU, Chattanooga, Vandy, UK, and one of Miss St/Missouri/Scar.

No reason why we can’t get at least 2 of those last 3

 

[HankHill]

100% agree. 7-5 is a successful year. Thats GA State, UAB, BYU, Chattanooga, Vandy, UK, and one of Miss St/Missouri/Scar.

Anyone that wouldn’t take 7-5 is crazy

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

But what about for a 1st year HC's first stop? Or a HC's first P5 stop?

Dabo Swinney
(Took over mid-year for Clemson) 2008 pre-Swinney: 3-3; after Dabo named HC: 4-3.. Year 1: 9-5; Y2: 6-7; Y3: 10-4

Verdict: Clemson has really only had one down year with him, and that was his Y2. Won 10+ ever since.
"Second Year Jump"-- not applicable

Urban Meyer
(G5) Bowling Green: previous year: 2-9; Meyer's Year 1: 8-3; Y2: 9-3
(G5 at the time) Utah: previous year: 5-6; Meyer's Y1: 10-2; Y2: 12-0
(P5) Florida: previous year: 7-5; Meyer's Y1: 9-3; Y2: 13-1

Verdict: Immediate success everywhere
"Second Year Jump"-- sorta applicable at UF, but going from 9-3 after a bowl win to 11-1 in the regular season isn't a big jump

Nick Saban
(G5) Toledo (he was only there one year): previous year: 6-5; Saban's Y1: 9-2
(P5) Michigan State: previous year: 0-11; Saban's Y1: 6-5-1; Y2: 6-6; Y3: 7-5; Y4: 6-6; Y5: 9-2
(P5) LSU: previous year: 3-8; Saban's Y1: 8-4; y2: 10-3; Y3: 8-5; Y4: 13-1

Verdict: Pretty immediate success everywhere
"Second Year Jump"-- not really applicable (only 2 wins better)

Jimbo Fisher
(Only job prior to A&M..) FSU previous year: 7-6; Year 1: 10-4; Y2: 9-4; Y3: 12-2

Verdict: Limited data, but had a phenomenal record from the get-go
"Second Year Jump"-- not applicable

Jim Harbaugh
(FCS) San Diego (Toreros, not State Aztecs): Prev year: 8-2; Y1: 7-4; Y2: 11-1; Y3: 11-1
(P5) Stanford: Prev Year: 1-11; Y1: 4-8; Y2: 5-7; Y3: 8-5; Y4: 12-1
NFL
(P5) Michigan: Prev year: 5-7; Y1: 10-3; Y2: 10-3
"Second Year Jump"-- at the FCS stop. Y3 jump at Stanford

Verdict: FCS was already a success. Stanford was a true build and it's sustained, which is truly impressive. Michigan was made to win at, and outside of losing every year to Ohio State, he's done the thing.

Les Miles
(P5) Oklahoma State: Prev year 3-8; Y1: 4-7; Y2: 8-5; Y3: 9-4
(P5) LSU: Prev year: 9-3; Y1: 11-2; Y2: 11-2; Y3 12-2

Verdict: Built OSU gradually, including a 4-win jump from Y1 to Y2. Maintained Saban's success at LSU.
"Second Year Jump"-- the first example here of a true second year jump.

Had to look it up. Who else belongs on the list?

That’s good stuff there. Guess we should look more on a case by case basis. Still think we should expect at least 7-5 this year. But if he doesn’t get there I’m not writing him off. Staff is too good.

 

[Catbone]

No reason why we can’t get at least 2 of those last 3

Ehhh... One DL or OL injury away from having big problems. I think those last 3 teams are all tossups if we are healthy

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Ehhh... One DL or OL injury away from having big problems.

I don’t know about that. If JG goes down tho we’re done.

 

[Catbone]

I don’t know about that. If JG goes down tho we’re done.

Nah Maurer is the second coming of Peyton

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Nah Maurer is the second coming of Peyton

 

[volsagain]

History shows that if you have a great coach, there is usually a big jump in year 2. For us, that would be a jump to 8-9 wins this year for Pruitt.

I think the key would be a decisive QB. GAME management if you have a nasty D, we just don't have what it takes for that big jump. But I do think we get off the ground.

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

I think the key would be a decisive QB. GAME management if you have a nasty D, we just don't have what it takes for that big jump. But I do think we get off the ground.

I guess I just don’t see 7-5 or 8-4 as that difficult with this schedule

 

[ChismsHeadband]

That’s good stuff there. Guess we should look more on a case by case basis. Still think we should expect at least 7-5 this year. But if he doesn’t get there I’m not writing him off. Staff is too good.

For sure.

A lot of the programs were already set up from one coach to another-- Dabo/Clemson, Jimbo/FSU, Miles/LSU, Urban/Ohio State

Outside of Saban at Michigan State and Harbaugh at Stanford, there are no really applicable comparisons to our situation.

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

For sure.

A lot of the programs were already set up from one coach to another-- Dabo/Clemson, Jimbo/FSU, Miles/LSU, Urban/Ohio State

Outside of Saban at Michigan State and Harbaugh at Stanford, there are no really applicable comparisons to our situation.

That’s a good point. As I said, swain’s show said we overachieved at 5-7. This roster was in bad shape.

The way I see it tho is that we massively upgraded at OC, the defense is in the 2nd year, S&C in second year also. We also added some talent.

At the same time Mizzou lost the player that made them good. Vandy lost everyone that made them decent. So did KY. I also don’t expect much from SC and frankly we should’ve beaten them last year. MSU also lost their DL and QB as well. And we play BYU instead of WVU.

8-4 is very attainable imo.

 

[volsagain]

I guess I just don’t see 7-5 or 8-4 as that difficult with this schedule

Agree, think that's really possible. But the big jump would be able to stay in the game with the big boys. All the other teams mentioned didn't play the sec teams we play every year.

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

Agree, think that's really possible. But the big jump would be able to stay in the game with the big boys. All the other teams mentioned didn't play the sec teams we play every year.

Yeah I’d were competitive against every team that sends a message. If we’re in the game against Bama and ga that would be impressive

 

[chargervol]

A few of the coaching stops mentioned in Chisms' post, there was talent (relative to their level) and they just needed coaching.
Or sometimes lines are sufficient and grabbing freshmen skill players is enough.

We all know we're in the SEC with huge trench issues. Atrocious scenario. All rebuilds are certainly not equal but still think we could walk away from 2019 feeling pretty good.

 

[Bassmaster_Vol]

A few of the coaching stops mentioned in Chisms' post, there was talent (relative to their level) and they just needed coaching.
Or sometimes lines are sufficient and grabbing freshmen skill players is enough.

We all know we're in the SEC with huge trench issues. Atrocious scenario. All rebuilds are certainly not equal but still think we could walk away from 2019 feeling pretty good.

I’m worried about our OL but I feel ok about our DL if Solomon gets approved and they stay healthy.

 

[Batman1948]

Doesn't mean he won't get it, just means it hasn't been approved yet. We have two guys who are waiting on theirs to be approved.

 

[VolsDoc81TX]

That UT banner has swimming featured alongside football and basketball. Just thought that was interesting.

When that banner was issued, Tennessee had good swimming and diving teams,

 

[chargervol]

I’m worried about our OL but I feel ok about our DL if Solomon gets approved and they stay healthy.

Relying a lot in Chaney working with what he's got. He's too experienced not to have been scheming and adjusting to whatever he thinks our line can do.

At least that's what I've convinced myself of