The Atlanta Braves

#30,901
#30,901
Vercingetorix said:
If you think of it as a math problem where the goal is to assign percentages of risk and draw a curve to express expected total incomes, then yeah, he's probably leaving a lot of money on the table. If you think of money as a guarantor of security where the additional utility of each extra dollar curves down after the first few million until it nears zero after, say, $100 million, then you take the guarantee now.
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We actually think of money and risk the same way. I think anybody in Acuna's position would.

I think where we differ is that I believe Acuna has a guarantor of security, for all intents and purposes, no matter what. You think his chances of ending up with effectively zero is much higher than I do. Of course there's the possibility of something happening to him that is career ending, and he has a higher probability of a career ending injury than say, an accountant, but that's what insurance is for.

Having said all of this, I don't blame him a bit for doing a deal now. I mean, he's a kid from Venezuela and a MLB team just said "here's $100m." Can't really argue that it is a mistake for him to do that.
 
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#30,902
#30,902
05_never_again said:
I think where we differ is that I believe Acuna has a guarantor of security, for all intents and purposes, no matter what. You think his chances of ending up with effectively zero is much higher than I do. Of course there's the possibility of something happening to him that is career ending, and he has a higher probability of a career ending injury than say, an accountant, but that's what insurance is for.
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If I were in Acuña's position, I'd regard anything short of "My family and I never ever have to worry about money again" as effectively zero. I don't know what that number is, but at only 21 years old it's really really high. Can you even get an insurance policy to replace $100 million of lost income? (I don't know.)
 
#30,903
#30,903
05_never_again said:
We actually think of money and risk the same way. I think anybody in Acuna's position would.

I think where we differ is that I believe Acuna has a guarantor of security, for all intents and purposes, no matter what. You think his chances of ending up with effectively zero is much higher than I do. Of course there's the possibility of something happening to him that is career ending, and he has a higher probability of a career ending injury than say, an accountant, but that's what insurance is for.

Having said all of this, I don't blame him a bit for doing a deal now. I mean, he's a kid from Venezuela and a MLB team just said "here's $100m." Can't really argue that it is a mistake for him to do that.
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It’s a good deal for both sides.

He gets paid way more than he would have otherwise for the first 6 years and we get a team friendly deal over the last 4.

And just like Trout, we’ll probably go to him with two years left on the deal and get another extension done.
 
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#30,904
#30,904
Vercingetorix said:
If I were in Acuña's position, I'd regard anything short of "My family and I never ever have to worry about money again" as effectively zero. I don't know what that number is, but at only 21 years old it's really really high. Can you even get an insurance policy to replace $100 million of lost income? (I don't know.)
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I'm sure you could, but it'd be extremely expensive.

For relatively cheaper, he probably could get an insurance policy that would pay him a significant amount of money in the event he couldn't play, especially once he got a confirmed offer from an MLB team for $100m.
 
#30,905
#30,905
Bone declaring for the draft with intentions to stay 😐😐😐 if Grant goes we might not make the tourney
 
#30,907
#30,907
Kingston Vol said:
Going to be fascinating. If Grant leaves, Lamonte and Bowden become our top two guys.

Turner-Bowden-James-Pons-Burns ??
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With a bench of Johnson-Gaines-Fulkerson-Walker oh god that’s bad.

Barnes better be working the grad transfer route. Neither Pember or Gaines expects to contribute year one.
 
#30,908
#30,908
zjcvols said:
With a bench of Johnson-Gaines-Fulkerson-Walker oh god that’s bad.

Barnes better be working the grad transfer route. Neither Pember or Gaines expects to contribute year one.
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Not sure I’d waste a spot on a grad transfer.

Take your lumps next year and develop the next wave of guys. Josiah won’t stay if he gets a lottery grade - and he will just like SGA did - they are clones.

I think that team competes for the tournament and the top half of the SEC.
 
#30,909
#30,909
Kingston Vol said:
Not sure I’d waste a spot on a grad transfer.

Take your lumps next year and develop the next wave of guys. Josiah won’t stay if he gets a lottery grade - and he will just like SGA did - they are clones.

I think that team competes for the tournament and the top half of the SEC.
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That sounds terrible. So we miss the tournament in 2020 and then COMPETE for the tournament in 2021???

That’s not good at all.
 
#30,910
#30,910
zjcvols said:
Bone declaring for the draft with intentions to stay 😐😐😐 if Grant goes we might not make the tourney
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Heard he was leaving a few weeks back, was hoping it wasn’t true. Oh well, can’t cry over spilled milk. Time for Lamonte to play like he did in the tournament.
 
#30,914
#30,914
zjcvols said:
That sounds terrible. So we miss the tournament in 2020 and then COMPETE for the tournament in 2021???

That’s not good at all.
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No, sorry, I wasn’t clear.

I think the team, without Grant and with no other additions, competes for the tournament next year and 6th or 7th in the conference. Basketball is so system/style/continuity driven that I think most of that will stay in tact. You get 9 guys pulling in the same direction and you’ll win the majority of your games just because there are so many bad teams in the conference/country.

The Josiah James point was separate. I keep seeing people say he’s not a traditional one and done and that he’ll stay for two years plus. The fact is he’s the prototypical combo guard NBA teams like to draft. Long, good defender, willing passer and teams will convince themselves they can develop his jumper. He’s SGA or Delon Wright - and those guys are so valuable.
 
#30,915
#30,915
Delon Wright was a throw-in for Marc Gasol..

I like him and the grizz crushed that trade but let’s not get too carried away with how valuable he is
 
#30,917
#30,917
TBrown said:
Delon Wright was a throw-in for Marc Gasol..

I like him and the grizz crushed that trade but let’s not get too carried away with how valuable he is
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I think if people knew what Delon Wright would be when he was drafted he would have been a low lottery pick.

He’s kind of plateaued in Memphis, I’ll agree. But 13/5/5 per 36 for your 3rd or 4th guard is valuable. And he was drafted at 23, they’d be getting Josiah at 19.
 
#30,920
#30,920
Kingston Vol said:
No, sorry, I wasn’t clear.

I think the team, without Grant and with no other additions, competes for the tournament next year and 6th or 7th in the conference. Basketball is so system/style/continuity driven that I think most of that will stay in tact. You get 9 guys pulling in the same direction and you’ll win the majority of your games just because there are so many bad teams in the conference/country.

The Josiah James point was separate. I keep seeing people say he’s not a traditional one and done and that he’ll stay for two years plus. The fact is he’s the prototypical combo guard NBA teams like to draft. Long, good defender, willing passer and teams will convince themselves they can develop his jumper. He’s SGA or Delon Wright - and those guys are so valuable.
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Let’s say, for example, that we miss the tournament and that Josiah leaves.

With that happening, we then have to replace the entire starting backcourt. And if we miss the tournament, then one is to assume that Pons/Johnson/Gaines whatever didn’t exactly light the world on fire. So we miss the tournament and then will have a bunch of freshman taking over most likely.

That’s not good either.
 
#30,922
#30,922
zjcvols said:
Let’s say, for example, that we miss the tournament and that Josiah leaves.

With that happening, we then have to replace the entire starting backcourt. And if we miss the tournament, then one is to assume that Pons/Johnson/Gaines whatever didn’t exactly light the world on fire. So we miss the tournament and then will have a bunch of freshman taking over most likely.

That’s not good either.
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No, that won’t be good.

I’m not saying we’re guaranteed any success. In fact, if Grant leaves, it’s very possible we peaked this year.

It’ll depend on this staff (that’s about to be gutted) finding the diamonds in the rough (Gaines, Pember, etc.) and developing them like they did the current group.

Basically we’re about to find out if Grant and Admiral were just special on their own accord or if Barnes and his staff were responsible for their development. The answer, of course, is probably somewhere in the middle, but how far does that line skew from the center?
 
#30,923
#30,923
zjcvols said:
Let’s say, for example, that we miss the tournament and that Josiah leaves.

With that happening, we then have to replace the entire starting backcourt. And if we miss the tournament, then one is to assume that Pons/Johnson/Gaines whatever didn’t exactly light the world on fire. So we miss the tournament and then will have a bunch of freshman taking over most likely.

That’s not good either.
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We are ok. We will be going to the tournament.
 
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