The Atlanta Braves

#30,853
#30,853
zjcvols said:
So it’s 8/$100 with two options for $17M apiece. So 10/$134.

Incredible
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I need to correct this:

So it’s a 8 year/$90M contract guaranteed with a $10M buyout after the 8th and 9th year. So it breaks down like this:

8 years/$90M ($10M buyout)= $100M guaranteed
9 years/$107M ($10M buyout)= $117M guaranteed
10 years/$124M if both options exercises.

Great job by the FO
 
#30,854
#30,854
zjcvols said:
I need to correct this:

So it’s a 8 year/$90M contract guaranteed with a $10M buyout after the 8th and 9th year. So it breaks down like this:

8 years/$90M ($10M buyout)= $100M guaranteed
9 years/$107M ($10M buyout)= $117M guaranteed
10 years/$124M if both options exercises.

Great job by the FO
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Very similar to Trout’s first deal.
 
#30,858
#30,858
Grudenator said:
At this point I’m wondering if Acunas agent even graduated high school lol
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It's no small thing to be guaranteed $100 million right now, regardless of what happens. Only 115 games in the majors and he's already assured that nobody in his family will ever want for money again. And he can still be a FA with plenty of time left on the odometer for another big contract after that. These quick extensions are great for both sides.
 
#30,859
#30,859
Vercingetorix said:
It's no small thing to be guaranteed $100 million right now, regardless of what happens. Only 115 games in the majors and he's already assured that nobody in his family will ever want for money again. And he can still be a FA with plenty of time left on the odometer for another big contract after that. These quick extensions are great for both sides.
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...but especially the Braves.

If Acuna is as good as everybody says he is, he'd be in line for a deal that would likely pay him $25-30m/year within just a few years. Instead, he might be able to secure a contract paying him that much annually a decade from now, but it wouldn't be a 7-10 year deal. Would probably be 3-4 tops. He locked himself into a deal now that lasts through his prime years, which provides security, but definitely can limit his total earning power. This is definitely a much bigger win for the Braves, again, provided he's as good as everybody thinks he is.
 
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#30,861
#30,861
05_never_again said:
...but especially the Braves.

If Acuna is as good as everybody says he is, he'd be in line for a deal that would likely pay him $25-30m/year within just a few years. Instead, he might be able to secure a contract paying him that much annually a decade from now, but it wouldn't be a 7-10 year deal. Would probably be 3-4 tops. He locked himself into a deal now that lasts through his prime years, which provides security, but definitely can limit his total earning power. This is definitely a much bigger win for the Braves.
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And if he gets hurt he might end up with (effectively) zero. I don't know about you but from my perspective the difference between zero and $100 million is a whole lot bigger than the difference between $100 million and $200 million. I don't think you can even evaluate who "won" the deal because their incentives are so asymmetrical. The Braves are a multi-industry conglomerate playing trying to get more favorable numbers in a spreadsheet. Acuña is a 21 year kid who can go to bed tonight knowing that his family will never have to worry about money again. "Maximizing theoretical total earning power" has gotta be way down the hierarchy of needs from that.
 
#30,864
#30,864
Vercingetorix said:
And if he gets hurt he might end up with (effectively) zero. I don't know about you but from my perspective the difference between zero and $100 million is a whole lot bigger than the difference between $100 million and $200 million. I don't think you can even evaluate who "won" the deal because their incentives are so asymmetrical. The Braves are a multi-industry conglomerate playing trying to get more favorable numbers in a spreadsheet. Acuña is a 21 year kid who can go to bed tonight knowing that his family will never have to worry about money again. "Maximizing theoretical total earning power" has gotta be way down the hierarchy of needs from that.
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The chances of him making effectively zero are very remote, IMO. The probability of a career-ending injury, especially since he isn't a pitcher, isn't all that high. Acuna could deal with multiple injuries and miss time, but if he produced when healthy I don't think it would really hurt his earning power all that much. He could even blow a knee out and miss a full season and I don't think it'd matter all that much, provided he produced as expected when healthy. Bryce Harper missed 44 games in 2013, 62 games in 2014, and 51 games in 2017, but I don't think that hampered his negotiating position when gettin' paid time rolled around.

Now, if there was something like a 10% chance Acuna's future earning power turns out to be zero (major injury, turns out simply to not be very good, etc.), then yes, taking $100m today is a no-brainer. But the chance of that happening is nowhere near 10%. His earning power until age 30 is definitely going to be something - there's a chance it's less than $100m, but there's also a (potentially pretty good) chance it's much more than $100m.
 
#30,865
#30,865
05_never_again said:
The chances of him making effectively zero are very remote, IMO. The probability of a career-ending injury, especially since he isn't a pitcher, isn't all that high. Acuna could deal with multiple injuries and miss time, but if he produced when healthy I don't think it would really hurt his earning power all that much. He could even blow a knee out and miss a full season and I don't think it'd matter all that much, provided he produced as expected when healthy. Bryce Harper missed 44 games in 2013, 62 games in 2014, and 51 games in 2017, but I don't think that hampered his negotiating position when gettin' paid time rolled around.

Now, if there was something like a 10% chance Acuna's future earning power turns out to be zero (major injury, turns out simply to not be very good, etc.), then yes, taking $100m today is a no-brainer. But the chance of that happening is nowhere near 10%. His earning power until age 30 is definitely going to be something - there's a chance it's less than $100m, but there's also a (potentially pretty good) chance it's much more than $100m.
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I suppose you and I have different attitudes about money and risk. If someone said to me "You can have $100 million guaranteed, or we can draw numbers out of a hat and there's a 95 percent chance you can have $200 million but a 5 percent chance you get nothing," I'd for sure take the $100 million [1]. Catastrophic injuries happen. Can't-miss players somehow miss. I don't think he's stupid for taking it.


[1] Unless I already had many millions of dollars, of course, which neither I nor Ronald Acuña do yet
 
#30,867
#30,867
Vercingetorix said:
I suppose you and I have different attitudes about money and risk. If someone said to me "You can have $100 million guaranteed, or we can draw numbers out of a hat and there's a 95 percent chance you can have $200 million but a 5 percent chance you get nothing," I'd for sure take the $100 million. Catastrophic injuries happen. Can't-miss players somehow miss. I don't think he's stupid for taking it.
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I don't even think his chances of getting nothing are 5%. His chances of getting nothing are almost zero. His chances of getting something less than $120m are non-zero, to be sure, but what are his chances of getting more than that? Greater than 50%?

I don't think he's stupid for taking it either, but a lot of guys in his position have waited and I can't recall any of them that ended up with essentially zero.
 
#30,870
#30,870
05_never_again said:
I don't even think his chances of getting nothing are 5%. His chances of getting nothing are almost zero. His chances of getting something less than $120m are non-zero, to be sure, but what are his chances of getting more than that? Greater than 50%?

I don't think he's stupid for taking it either, but a lot of guys in his position have waited and I can't recall any of them that ended up with essentially zero.
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Well, he had what, three years coming at the minimum? So effectively nothing. And then four years of arbitration, during which he would finally start collecting a legitimate salary, but only one year at a time. It was going to take him ~5 years before he'd accrue enough that you'd start to think of it as real, bulletproof financial security. And meanwhile stuff can happen. When I was a kid Dickie Thon was the best young player in the National League, but one day he got hit in the face with a pitch and his whole career evaporated in an instant. It might be a tiny risk but it's real.

If you think of it as a math problem where the goal is to assign percentages of risk and draw a curve to express expected total incomes, then yeah, he's probably leaving a lot of money on the table. If you think of money as a guarantor of security where the additional utility of each extra dollar curves down after the first few million until it nears zero after, say, $100 million, then you take the guarantee now.
 
#30,871
#30,871
IIRC, didn’t Ron Gant sign a pretty lucrative deal in the offseason before he wrecked his knee and he was never the same? I’d take my $100 mil now and worry about my next big paycheck on down the road.
 
#30,875
#30,875
Vercingetorix said:
Well, he had what, three years coming at the minimum? So effectively nothing. And then four years of arbitration, during which he would finally start collecting a legitimate salary, but only one year at a time. It was going to take him ~5 years before he'd accrue enough that you'd start to think of it as real, bulletproof financial security. And meanwhile stuff can happen. When I was a kid Dickie Thon was the best young player in the National League, but one day he got hit in the face with a pitch and his whole career evaporated in an instant. It might be a tiny risk but it's real.

If you think of it as a math problem where the goal is to assign percentages of risk and draw a curve to express expected total incomes, then yeah, he's probably leaving a lot of money on the table. If you think of money as a guarantor of security where the additional utility of each extra dollar curves down after the first few million until it nears zero after, say, $100 million, then you take the guarantee now.
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Or the organization makes you change your approach completely at 21, pressure you to play with a bum shoulder making you change your stance, and then later on you get hit in the face and move back from the plate and lose your ability to hit for power.
 
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