How Many Wins Does CJC Bring To The Table

How Many WIns Does CJC Bring To The Table?

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#30
#30
Playcalling in and of itself is way overdone. In most situations , there is not a miracle play . There are 2 main options ( pass or run ) . There are a handful of formations ( max protect , 4 wide , or somewhere in between ) and a few calls . Most OCs get the general call correct. The problem the Vols had under Helton was not the 'calls' . It was the ability to execute . JG was a limited QB that was protected via playcalling. The running game was developmental and inconsistent . The O line was horrible which limited many patterns like double moves , deep passes, and longer deep crossing routes. Also TE and backs could not get in patterns as they had to help the O-line.

I think Chaney's real measure will be teaching and development. Specifically the QB and young Oline. If he can do that well , he can use the skill players however he wants. If he can't , play calling will be just as limited as it was last year.
 
#34
#34
This thread is based on an interesting thought, a sabermetrics kind of thing where each player and coach adds a certain amount of value (in football, value is measured in Wins), and where the elements of each team are interchangeable pieces.

But I have a feeling that, unlike the success of sabermetrics in baseball, nothing is ever that clean or precise in football. It is such a team sport, such an energy-driven and emotion-driven sport, a sport with true momentum shifts and random effects that come only with all-weather, oblong-ball kinds of conditions.

But let's entertain the possibility for a moment. To pull some numbers out of thin air:
  • say offense and defense each account for 42% of each Win (special teams gets the other 16%).
  • say the coaching staff (at college level) is worth 50% of each of those elements, with the players providing the other 50%. [i hear you, "it ain't the x's and o's, it's the jimmies and joes" ... but the recruiting and development of jimmies and joes is on the coaches, as well ... so it can be heavily about jimmies and joes and still be credit to coaches).
  • say the coordinators carry 40% of the "value" of the coaching value-add on their side of the ball, with the position coaches collectively getting the other 60%.
  • finally, say we expect to win 8 games in 2019 (again, just making up numbers for conversation).
That means that the offensive coordinator gets credit for 40% of 50% of 42% of 8 victories.

8 * .42 * .5 * .4 == 0.672 wins.

Using those made-up numbers, the offensive coordinator is personally adding about two-thirds of a win to each season, if we're roughly an 8-win team.

Have to emphasize, though, I don't think you can do this kind of isolate-and-value analysis to football. It's way too much a mish-mash of all the pieces with catalysts and inhibitors emerging and interacting in unexpected and unpredictable ways.
 
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#35
#35
VFL-82-JP said:
This thread is based on an interesting thought, a sabermetrics kind of thing where each player and coach adds a certain amount of value (in football, value is measured in Wins), and where the elements of each team are interchangeable pieces.

But I have a feeling that, unlike the success of sabermetrics in baseball, nothing is ever that clean or precise in football. It is such a team sport, such an energy-driven and emotion-driven sport, a sport with true momentum shifts and random effects that come only with all-weather, oblong-ball kinds of conditions.

But let's entertain the possibility for a moment. To pull some numbers out of thin air:
  • say offense and defense each account for 42% of each Win (special teams gets the other 16%).
  • say the coaching staff (at college level) is worth 50% of each of those elements, with the players providing the other 50%. [i hear you, "it ain't the x's and o's, it's the jimmies and joes" ... but the recruiting and development of jimmies and joes is on the coaches, as well ... so it can be heavily about jimmies and joes and still be credit to coaches).
  • say the coordinators carry 40% of the "value" of the coaching value-add on their side of the ball, with the position coaches collectively getting the other 60%.
  • finally, say we expect to win 8 games in 2019 (again, just making up numbers for conversation).
That means that the offensive coordinator gets credit for 40% of 50% of 42% of 8 victories.

8 * .42 * .5 * .4 == 0.672 wins.

Using those made-up numbers, the offensive coordinator is personally adding about two-thirds of a win to each season, if we're roughly an 8-win team.

Have to emphasize, though, I don't think you can do this kind of isolate-and-value analysis to football. It's way too much a mish-mash of all the pieces with catalysts and inhibitors emerging and interacting in unexpected and unpredictable ways.
Click to expand...


I think you are onto something here , but you would have to have a variable system . If a team is say all immobilized due to a bug and cannot even move , then an OC could have a 0 sum effect . If the team is the best ever recruited and could improve to more , then an OC could have 0 effect . Then you have the vast array in the middle . Then you have the possibility that the OC could affect only a portion of the team. Then the variable that he could positively affect a portion , but have a negative affect on another part of the team . The variables could be infinite.

I think you would be better served trying to marry the quantum world with the relativity theory . It would mean more to humanity and probably be much easier
 
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#37
#37
SKBubba said:
I don't know. Florida put some real razzle dazzle on Michigan for a blowout Peach Bowl win.
Click to expand...

There is that ...but bowls have a bit longer to prep for than the 1 week that most games get. My point is not to argue a point , just to say that if a team can't execute its basic offense due to talent and lack of development , then playcalling is handcuffed. You can't ask guys to do things they are not capable of doing . I personally , will measure Chaney as to how he gets these guys capable . Can he turn the Oline and JG into SEC players ? All evidence says the guy is a great teacher , so we may have a chance here
 
#39
#39
It’s boils down to CJC vs Helton all the other changes would apply to Helton. Not counting any recruits we landed due to a change or due CJC being hired.

How will the offense or the team be different due to CJC?

Having more doing it right and having less doing it wrong probably was going to happen any way.

I expect CJC’s experience to be a plus. That will allow CJP to feel more comfortable in letting CJC be more aggressive.

I voted 4 because there wasn’t more. With all the onside kicks it’s a shame we didn’t roll our QB out more to buy the time needed to let some down the field passes to develop. Why not more catch and throws that worked so well against Allburn?

By us expecting to get better and others expecting to take a step back, it boils down to how will we play against the gumps, chumps and DTU? By more players doing it right TY vs LY, I expect it will make us more competitive.
 
#40
#40
OnlyGodForgives said:
How many games did they lose last year solely due to play calling? I would say none, but maybe SC. All the rest were blowouts, except for the 26-point nailbiters of course.
Click to expand...
Blowouts can be the result of lousy offense, so of course they can be the result of lousy play calling. Helton's play calling often made success impossible. Having said that, even though good play calling could have made the difference, I have no idea if good or even great play calling would have made the difference.
 
#41
#41
I love this thread. It is the initial entry in the “well, we have Chaney now, and therefore we should expect (= demand) an X-Y season” pronouncements. (I realize that this wasn’t OP’s intent.)

If we don’t achieve X; hell, if we achieve X but at some point decide it should be more than X, the cries will arise that CJC -> CJP -> CPF -> C Ghost of RN have failed and should be fired.

There is something in VN’s nature than we anchor on Stuff We’ve Read Here and transform it into the tablets carried down from Mount Sinai. I’ve been around here for a number of years, and VolNation never fails to disappoint, especially when it comes to predictions and gossip in general.
 
#42
#42
papatomany said:
Blowouts can be the result of lousy offense, so of course they can be the result of lousy play calling. Helton's play calling often made success impossible. Having said that, even though good play calling could have made the difference, I have no idea if good or even great play calling would have made the difference.
Click to expand...
I feel pretty secure in my belief that a team doesn't lose repeatedly by 4 touchdowns because of play calling, at least at the collegiate level. Volnation dies on the hill of recruiting rankings every single day, but it's the talent gap that has TN entrenched at the bottom of the league. My original post essentially came up with 0.5 as the weasel number for victory increase due to a new OC, and the sabermetrics guy has 0.672 or something. Pretty close for back of the envelope. As sure as night follows day, by February the consensus around here will be that this stacked TN team should be in line for at least 9 wins this year. It's ponderous, and it contributes to the entire football program's complacency, because if we've already awarded ourselves the 9 wins, why try harder?
 
#43
#43
VolNExile said:
I love this thread. It is the initial entry in the “well, we have Chaney now, and therefore we should expect (= demand) an X-Y season” pronouncements. (I realize that this wasn’t OP’s intent.)

If we don’t achieve X; hell, if we achieve X but at some point decide it should be more than X, the cries will arise that CJC -> CJP -> CPF -> C Ghost of RN have failed and should be fired.

There is something in VN’s nature than we anchor on Stuff We’ve Read Here and transform it into the tablets carried down from Mount Sinai. I’ve been around here for a number of years, and VolNation never fails to disappoint, especially when it comes to predictions and gossip in general.
Click to expand...
There many on here that in a position to demand anything from the Vols. Many expect the best and cope with the rest in the way that will help them be as happy as possible. Some expect less to be as happy as they can be too.

It’s tough having your happiness in the control of others. The life of a fanatic......I mean fan.

15-0.
 
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#46
#46
majic73 said:
Playcalling in and of itself is way overdone. In most situations , there is not a miracle play . There are 2 main options ( pass or run ) . There are a handful of formations ( max protect , 4 wide , or somewhere in between ) and a few calls . Most OCs get the general call correct. The problem the Vols had under Helton was not the 'calls' . It was the ability to execute . JG was a limited QB that was protected via playcalling. The running game was developmental and inconsistent . The O line was horrible which limited many patterns like double moves , deep passes, and longer deep crossing routes. Also TE and backs could not get in patterns as they had to help the O-line.

I think Chaney's real measure will be teaching and development. Specifically the QB and young Oline. If he can do that well , he can use the skill players however he wants. If he can't , play calling will be just as limited as it was last year.
Click to expand...
You think two options of an OC are pass and run? Ridiculous...a great OC is constantly manoeuvring personnel to create mismatches for the defense and that is done primarily through play calling.
 
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#47
#47
OnlyGodForgives said:
I feel pretty secure in my belief that a team doesn't lose repeatedly by 4 touchdowns because of play calling, at least at the collegiate level. Volnation dies on the hill of recruiting rankings every single day, but it's the talent gap that has TN entrenched at the bottom of the league. My original post essentially came up with 0.5 as the weasel number for victory increase due to a new OC, and the sabermetrics guy has 0.672 or something. Pretty close for back of the envelope. As sure as night follows day, by February the consensus around here will be that this stacked TN team should be in line for at least 9 wins this year. It's ponderous, and it contributes to the entire football program's complacency, because if we've already awarded ourselves the 9 wins, why try harder?
Click to expand...


Recruiting is very important but Ky & Vandy don't blow up the recruiting rankings but they both went to a bowl game and we didn't
I bet you can take any college team in the NCAA and put Dan Mullens as the coach & their record would improve
But there is only so much that a coach can do w/o top players on the roster
 
#48
#48
Volfan76 said:
You think two options of an OC are pass and run? Ridiculous...a great OC is constantly manoeuvring personnel to create mismatches for the defense and that is done primarily through play calling.
Click to expand...

Not ridiculous at all. There are only two ways to advance the ball : passing or running . They can't drive it , they can't mail it , no one has figured out how to fly .

There are pure scheme guys and there are mismatch guys . Chaney runs a fairly constant scheme , but is primarily a match up guy . None of that is the point of what I said originally . Reading comprehension would serve you well. The point is , you can't call plays that your team can't execute . That was an enormous issue last season . Lack of QB acuity and lack of offensive line play . I could go through it play by play with you . The largest point , is that Chaney's value is going to be most apparent in development and teaching. That was all the plays can be executed and he can 'call' plays that give them a chance to win
 
#49
#49
UTNoFear said:
I personally see 2-3 but 2 seems more realistic until the OL Gels. So 7-5 should be the floor and a bowl game. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Way too optimistic if you think 7-5 is the floor. OL problems will continue and we lost our top 3 DTs and a 4th in Bain. Any injury to one of our 2-deep DL could be devastating. 7-5 is probably closer to the ceiling. Chaney is a very good OC, but he isn't a miracle worker. It'll be 2020 before we can reasonably expect to have a floor of 7-5.
 
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